Technical Analysis Archives - Page 29 of 57

The June gold contract stalled just below the $1741 target discussed in yesterday’s update before falling and taking out the $1704.1 swing low. The move down held key support at $1688. However, this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1788.8. Therefore, meeting $1688 implies that a larger downward correction will take place before prices rise to a new high. The next major objective is the $1641 equal to (1.00) target with interposed objectives at $1677 and $1654.

The $1688 target is a potential temporary stalling point. Should a test of resistance take place early tomorrow look for $1717 to hold. Key resistance and the barrier for a resumed near-term bullish outlook is $1735. Settling above $1735 would call for prices to rise above the $1737 swing high, negating the wave down from $1764.2 that makes the connection to $1641 through $1677 and $1654.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas is settling into a wide trading range as expected. Today, prices fell to challenge $1.86, the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1.765. This is a potential stalling point but based on the waves down from $2.100 and $2.018 odds lean in favor of falling to $1.82. A test of resistance is expected before prices close below $1.82. Closing below $1.82 would clear the way for $1.69, which is near the bottom of the trading range for the June contract.

As prices fall toward $1.82 resistance at $1.92 is expected to hold and $1.96 is key. Settling above $1.96 will call for another attempt at $2.03, which then connects to $2.11 and higher. Without help from bullish external factors, it is doubtful that natural gas will overcome $2.03.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil held crucial support at $11.0 on a closing basis and formed a bullish hammer today. Sentiment remains firmly bearish, but today’s prices action suggests a test of $15.0 will probably take place before prices fall below $10.0. Closing above $15.0 will complete the hammer and clear the way for a test of the pattern’s $16.7 confirmation point. Key resistance and the barrier for a more positive outlook is $17.5, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $6.50. Closing above this would call for WTI to rise toward $21.8.

Without help from bullish external factors, the move up from $10.07 will likely prove to be corrective. Should WTI close below $11.0 before overcoming $15.0, near-term odds will shift back in favor of $9.9, $8.6, and possibly lower.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s held the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $19.99 on a closing basis. In addition, today’s formation of a bullish morning star setup suggest prices will rise to at least $24.0 before the move down continues. Closing above $24.0 will complete the morning star and call for crucial resistance and the pattern’s confirmation point at $24.9. Above this, the barrier for a more positive outlook is $26.2, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $19.99.

Like WTI, Brent will need help from external factors to overcome $24.9 and eventually $26.2. Sentiment remains bearish, so this will likely prove to be difficult. Should Brent close below $21.7, look for the move down to extend to $20.8 and then $19.9 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The outlook for gold is bullish and the move up is poised to extend to the next major objective at $1798. However, the wave formation up from $1666.2 is due for a pullback. Therefore, a test of support is expected before $1798 is overcome on a sustained closing basis.

Gold held important support around $1665 on Tuesday and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1788.8 today. This implies that the outlook remains bullish and rising above $1771 early tomorrow will clear the way for $1798. The $1798 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1576.0 and the highest the primary wave up from $1666.2 projects. As stated, a test of support is expected before $1798 is overcome. Nonetheless, closing above $1798 will clear the way for $1821, the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $1453.0.

Prices fell a bit from the $1764.2 swing high at the end of the day. The wave formation up from $1666.2 is a bit extended, which suggests a test of support might take place first. Initial support at $1723 is expected to hold. Closing below this will delay the move to $1798 and would call for key support at $1688. Closing below $1688 is doubtful but would call for another attempt at $1665 and likely $1644 before the move up extends to a new high.

As expected in the weekly Commentary, prompt month natural gas prices have been trading in an erratic manner this week. Crucial resistance at $1.95 has held on a closing basis so far, but today’s move up invalidates yesterday’s bearish dark cloud cover. Based on this and the waves up from $1.521, $1.555, and $1.774, natural gas should make a push for at least $1.97 and likely $2.04 before the end of the week. Closing above $2.04 will call for key upper resistance at $2.10.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar — Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar

The challenge is that for the move up to be sustained fundamental data will have to reflect a strong bullish change in supply and demand. Technical factors can push prices to $2.04 and maybe $2.10, but anything higher than that, or a sustained move above $2.00, will have to be backed by bullish fundamentals. This means that there is still quite a bit of downside risk.

Should natural gas fall below $1.85 before overcoming $1.97 look for another attempt at $1.80 and possibly $1.75. The $1.75 level is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1.521. Therefore, a close below $1.75 would shift odds in favor of $1.68 and then a move back toward the $1.555 and $1.521 swing lows.

With all factors considered, natural gas prices should rise a bit higher during the next few days. But the move up will probably be short-lived and another major test of support is likely without help from external factors. Therefore, for the bigger picture, the most probable scenario is a wide trading range, the boundaries of which are still be defined.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

It has been an unusual few days for WTI crude oil. Negative prompt month May prices on April 20 increased bearish sentiment and weighed heavily on June WTI crude oil today. There are no reversal patterns that indicate the move down has ended. There is a modest chance that today’s accelerated move down will form a spike bottom. Even so, there is no technical or fundamental reason to expect a miraculous recovery in the coming days and even weeks. At a minimum, a larger test of resistance is expected before prices fall any lower.

June is now the prompt month contract and fell $6.50 before stalling. The decline took out the $11.7 and $8.1 targets mentioned briefly in yesterday’s update. The $8.1 objective was the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $37.15 and held on a closing basis. This suggests that this afternoon’s move up from $6.50 is a three-wave correction that will extend to at least $15.3 and likely $18.2 during the next few days. Closing above $18.2 will clear the way for $19.8 and possibly $23.0.

Volatility is expected to remain high for the next few days as the market sorts itself out. Expect to see violent and fast swings, initially up and then likely down. The caveat is that should a spike bottom form prices will surge higher tomorrow. Closing above $23.0 is unlikely but would suggest this is the case.

Immediate support is $11.0 and key support for the near-term is $9.4. Closing below $9.4 will call for $7.4 and then a new low of at least $4.5.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent fell as expected but the move down accelerated and reached a low of $17.51. The subsequent move up looks to be forming a three-wave correction that met its smaller than (0.618) target this afternoon. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of at least $21.3 and even $23.0 tomorrow. Settling above $23.0 would clear the way for a larger correction to $23.9 and possibly $25.9.

Support at $18.3 must hold for the move up to extend to $21.3 and higher tomorrow. Falling below $21.3 would invalidate the wave up from $17.51 that projects to the higher targets. This would also open the way for $17.1 and lower.

The long-term outlook for gold is bullish and prices are still poised to eventually challenge targets above $1800. However, confluent resistance was met around the $1788.8 high, at which point a daily evening star reversal pattern and several bearish divergences formed. In addition, the intra-day wave down from $1788.8 fulfilled its smaller than (0.618) at today’s $1722.0 swing low. This implies that after a brief upward correction gold should fall to $1696 before the move up eventually continues. Support at $1676 is expected to hold, though a close below this would call for a more substantial test of support before prices rally again.

For now, resistance at $1748 is expected to hold and $1764 is key. Settling above $1764 would call for a move above the $1768 swing high. This would invalidate the wave down from $1788.8 that projects to $1696 and lower. This would also clear the way for the move up to extend to $1782 and likely $1796, the last threshold protecting $1800.

The outlook for natural gas is firmly bearish and today’s nominal close below $1.60 clears the way for a test of $1.54 and possibly $1.50. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the primary wave down from $1.918, respectively. The sub-waves down from $1.813 also show that these two objectives are highly confluent. Therefore, a test of resistance is expected before natural gas settles below $1.50.

Based on the wave structure and bearish sentiment, natural gas should fall to at least $1.54 before another reasonable test of resistance. Nonetheless, should prices rise sooner, look for initial resistance at $1.63 and then $1.67. The latter is expected to hold. Key near-term resistance is $1.73. Settling above $1.73 would call for a larger upward correction to $1.79 and possibly higher. This would also suggest that prices may settle into a trading range before falling to challenge major support around $1.50.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil briefly fell below $20.0 but held that psychologically important target on a closing basis. Support around $20.0 was stubborn and before the rise to $29.13 just over a week ago. The outlook remains bearish and prices are poised to challenge $19.6 and lower. Yet, given the recent strength of support around $20.0 a larger test of resistance will probably take place first.

Resistance at $21.7 is expected to hold and $23.0 is key for the near-term. Settling above $23.0 would call for a larger upward correction to $24.2 and possibly higher. This would also suggest that prices may be settling into a short-term trading range before falling to challenge the next major targets below $20.0.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s outlook remains bearish and the move down is poised to reach at least $28.9 tomorrow. This is a highly confluent wave projection that is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $24.52. Therefore, an upward correction is expected before Brent closes below $28.9 and falls to $28.0 and lower.

As Brent falls toward $28.9, resistance at $30.9 is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near-term is $32.0. Settling above this would call for a larger upward correction to $32.8 and possibly $33.8. The $33.8 level is most important because a close above this would imply that near-term odds are shifting back in favor of a larger move up in the coming days and weeks.

There is little doubt that gold’s decline from $1742.6 is corrective of the larger scale move up. So far, prices have fallen to $1670.7 but have not been able to close below $1679. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1742.6 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1576.0. Nonetheless, there is still a good chance for the correction to extend to $1660 first, especially upon a move below $1670 early tomorrow. The $1660 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1742.6 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1576.0. Support at $1660 is expected to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $1639.

The corrective move down will likely be short-lived, and once $1660 is met odds for a move back up will increase substantially. There is also a reasonable chance that the move down has already stalled and that prices will press higher before reaching $1660. Should gold overcome $1698 first look for a test of $1716. Settling above $1716 would strongly imply the corrective move down is over and would clear the way for $1479 and higher.

Gold Price Forecast – April 30, 2020

Tag: Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast