Gold Price Forecast – June 18, 2020

Tag: Technical Analysis

Gold Price Forecast

Gold futures are trading within the boundaries of a rectangle pattern. This is bullish for the long-term. A close above $1790 will confirm a break higher, clearing the way for the next major targets at $1816 and higher.

Gold – Daily Rectangle

However, for the past few days gold has struggled to overcome resistance around $1744. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1789.0 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1671.7. Odds still favor a continued rise and a close above $1749 will call for $1761, which then connects to $1790.

That said, today’s failure to close above $1744 suggests a deeper test of support might take place first. Support at $1703, the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1671.7, is expected to hold. Falling below this would call for $1685 and then $1666, the lower of which is in line with the bottom of the rectangle. Settling below $1666 would confirm a break lower out of the pattern and a strong bearish shift in sentiment.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

The outlook for natural gas is bearish after settling below $1.69 and wiping out the bullish hammer that formed a week ago on June 10. The move down also broke the lower trend line on the continuation chart connecting the $1.519 and $1.595 swing lows. Today’s pullback tested and held this same trend line and Tuesday’s midpoint, which is bearish for the near-term. Finally, the move up from $1.597 forms a bearish flag that is poised to break lower.

Natural Gas – Daily Chart

A close below $1.60 is expected during the next day or so and will open the way for $1.54 and likely $1.49. Once $1.49 is met, another significant test of resistance is anticipated.

Nevertheless, $1.60 is a historically important level and has been resilient support after prompt month prices on the continuation chart fell to $1.519 on March 23. So far, $1.60 hast held on a closing basis. Should the corrective move up from $1.597 extend above $1.67 first, look for a test of $1.71. Resistance at $1.71 is expected to hold, though a close above this will call for $1.78. This is key resistance because settling above $1.78 will open the way for a move to, and likely above, $1.83. For now, such a move is doubtful without a strong bullish shift in external factors (e.g. weather or other demand).

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. The move up is poised to eventually reach $41.8 where it will attempt to fill the July contract’s March 7 gap down from $41.88. However, WTI has desperately been due for a significant correction. Based on this afternoon’s price action, there is still a good chance for a larger test of support during the next couple of days.

WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

There is little doubt that the move down from $40.44 is corrective. Today’s close above the 62 percent retracement of the decline to $34.36 is positive for the near-term outlook. Even so, today’s move up stalled just below the $39.1 target as called for in yesterday’s update. Also, the wave formation down from $39.06 calls for a test of $37.3 and likely $36.3 before a new high is made. Falling below $36.3 will call for $35.3, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $40.44. A close below $35.3 would call for $33.0 and possibly lower.

Should WTI overcome $39.2, look for a test of what has become key near-term resistance at $40.1. Settling above this will shift near-term odds in favor of making the push to $41.8 sooner rather than later.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $43.33. This strongly suggests that the recent move down is corrective and that a new high will likely be made soon. However, today’s move up stalled just above the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $37.01. Therefore, a test of $40.0, likely $39.3, and possibly $38.6 is expected before a new high is made. Settling below $38.6 will call for key support at $37.6, a close below which would call for a much more substantial downward correction before the move up ultimately continues.

For tomorrow, resistance at $41.7 is expected to hold and $42.6 is key. Settling above $42.6 will open the way for $43.5 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold is trading in a range between nominally $1670 and $1790. This is bullish for the long-term outlook as the range forms a rectangle top, a pattern that breaks higher around 63 percent of the time. The pattern also reflects the significance of $1665 support and $1790 resistance and sets gold up for a breakout trade in either direction. Both $1665 and $1790 are highly confluent wave projections, and in the case of $1665, retracements, too.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The move above $1744, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1668.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1787.5, during the last few days was positive and suggests gold should challenge $1790 again soon. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1668.4. Closing above $1790 will confirm a break higher out of the rectangle pattern, clearing the way for $1815 and higher.

Nevertheless, the recent move up looks a bit overextended on the intra-day charts and has not been able to close above $1744. Therefore, a test of $1723 and possibly $1698 will likely take place first. Support at $1698 is expected to hold. Closing the week below this will call for $1665, which is in line with the bottom of the rectangle. Closing below $1665 would confirm a break lower out of the pattern and clear the way for a much more substantial move down.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas fell as called for and finally challenged the crucial $1.69 objective. However, the move down stalled just below $1.69 at $1.674 and then quickly rallied. This formed a spike type bottom on the intra-day chart and a textbook daily hammer. The brevity of the move down felt as though the market needed to get a test of $1.69 out of its system before rising to challenge resistance again.

Natural Gas – Daily Chart

Today’s prices action, the hammer, and several momentum oscillator divergence setups call for a larger test of resistance during the next few days. Closing above $1.81 will confirm the hammer and clear the way for key near-term resistance at $1.86. Resistance between $1.86 and $1.90 has been resilient on the July and continuation charts for the past few weeks. Therefore, closing above $1.86 would confirm a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and increase odds for a test of $1.94 and $2.00.

Nonetheless, for now, the move up is corrective and must hold $1.69 on a closing basis. Should natural gas fall below $1.75 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $1.69. Settling below $1.69 would be quite bearish and open the way for $1.61 and possibly lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold is bullish and $1820 is the next major objective. However, gold is stuck in a trading range and the lower trend line of the range was broken yesterday. Also, the recent decline below the smaller than (0.618) targets of the primary waves down from $1789.0 and $1787.5 suggests a test of the lower end of the range around $1670 might take place before a break higher.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, today’s settle above Wednesday’s midpoint and the formation of a bullish piercing pattern on the daily chart call for a test of at least $1740 and possibly $1751 first. Resistance at $1751 is expected to hold. Rising above this would call for key resistance at $1690 to be challenged. Settling above $1690 would shift near-term odds back in favor of $1780, which then makes a connection to targets above the upper trend line of the trading range.

In summary, technical analysis factors are mixed. The long-term outlook is bullish, near-term odds favor a test of $1670 before breaking higher out of the trading range, and a test of at least $1739 should take place first. This implies that trading will continue to be extremely choppy during the next few days and possibly for another few weeks.

Silver Price Forecast

Silver’s recent decline from the $18.950 swing high is most likely corrective. However, a daily bearish engulfing line and confirmed bearish KaseCD, MACD, and RSI divergences call for a deeper test of support before the move up continues to the next major objective of $19.54.

Tomorrow, look for a test of at least $17.65, which then connects to $17.33. Support at $17.33 is the most confluent objective on the chart and is expected to hold. Closing below this would call for a much more significant test of support before the move up continues.

Silver – Daily Chart

Nonetheless, today’s formation of a doji dampens odds for a larger correction. Should silver rise above $18.17 look for a test of $18.43. The latter is the doji’s confirmation point, a close above which would call for key resistance at $18.78. Settling above $18.78 would indicate the corrective move down is over and clear the way for the push toward $19.54.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

On the continuation chart, natural gas has been stuck in a wide trading range since mid-January. This range will likely persist for at least another few weeks. However, the July natural gas chart is in a downtrend that favors a decline to $1.70 during the next couple of days. This will fill the $1.722 June-July rollover gap on the continuation chart and fulfill the next major targets for the waves down from $2.364, $2.027, and $1.979. Support at $1.70 is a probable stalling point due to its importance on both the July and continuation charts. Nonetheless, any move up from $1.70 will likely be corrective and a close below $1.70 will clear the way for $1.66 and lower.

Natural Gas – $0.015 Kase Bar

There are, however, a few bullish technical factors that suggest a larger test of resistance might take place first. Today’s close above Monday’s $1.802 midpoint completed Tuesday’s morning star. Also, this afternoon’s move down held the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1.742. Should natural gas overcome $1.86, look for a larger upward correction to challenge $1.90. The $1.90 level is expected to hold. Settling above this would call for $1.95 possibly $1.99.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. There are no reversal patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Therefore, traders will likely continue to buy the dips until the market proves otherwise.

The sustained close above $35.1 for the third straight day is bullish for the near-term outlook. This was the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $17.27 and in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from July’s $62.95 swing high. During the next few days, WTI is expected to work its way to at least $37.9 and likely $39.2 before another major test of support. Closing above $39.2 will clear the way for $40.1 and then $41.8, the latter of which is near the bottom of the March 9 gap down from $41.88.

WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart

That said, daily and weekly momentum oscillators are overbought, the wave formation is extended, and a correction is due. As stated in yesterday’s update, the question has become not ‘if’ but ‘when’ WTI will turn lower and correct in a significant manner. Based on the charts, the next likely stalling points are $39.2 and $41.8.

For the interim, look for immediate support at $35.7 and key near-term support at $34.7. Closing below $34.7 will call for $33.9 and possibly $32.8 before the move up continues.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent continues to rally and is poised to reach at least $40.4 and possibly $41.6 before another significant test of support.

Nonetheless, the move up is overbought and due for a correction. The next most likely stalling point is $40.4, but there are no patterns or signals that imply this level will hold.

Should Brent fall below $38.6, look for key near-term support at $37.4. Settling below $37.4 will call for a deeper test of support with thresholds at $36.9 and $36.1, before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish. However, the near-term outlook calls for a larger test of support before the move up continues.

During the last few days, gold prices have fallen back into the range of a bullish coil that prices had broken higher out of on May 14. Yesterday, gold tested and held the lower trend line of the pattern and today the upper trend line. This afternoon’s decline from the upper trend line formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick, which is negative for the outlook during the next few days.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The primary wave down from $1788.8 has taken out its smaller than (0.618) target. Most waves that take out the smaller than target extend to the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1653. Therefore, near-term odds favor a larger downward correction where $1653 is the key objective. Tomorrow, look for at least $1697 and possibly $1681. Closing below $1681 will significantly increase odds for $1653. Nonetheless, at this point, the move down is most likely corrective and $1653 is expected to hold.

Conversely, should gold overcome $1741, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1755.8, near-term odds will shift in favor of $1752, which then connects to $1775 and eventually $1796.

Silver Price Forecast

July silver is working its way back toward the $18.165 swing high and overcame the $18.08 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $17.19 today. Ultimately, silver is expected to reach $19.55, the equal to target of the primary wave up from $11.68. The connection to $19.55 is made through $18.40 and then $18.60. Rising to $19.55 will likely take at least another few weeks.

Silver – Daily Chart

Nonetheless, because the $18.08 target held on a closing basis today, a small test of support might take place first. Support at $17.52 is expected to hold. Closing below this will call for a test of $17.14. Settling below $17.14 is doubtful and would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. This would also open the way for a much more substantial test of support before the move up continues toward $19.55 as expected.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July natural gas, which is now the prompt month futures contract, held $1.96 resistance and is poised to challenge at least $1.83 and likely $1.78 during the next few days. The $1.78 target is the lowest the first wave down from $2.027 projects and the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2.027. Closing below $1.78 will call for prices to fall toward $1.70 where the continuation chart’s rollover gap up from June’s $1.722 settle will be filled.

The $1.70 objective is also the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave down from $2.364. Closing below $1.70 may be a challenge without help from bearish external factors. Also, due to the importance of $1.70 and its connection to a new 2020 continuation chart low, it is doubtful that prices fall below $1.70 without another significant test of resistance first.

Natural Gas – $0.030 Kase Bar

There is an immediate support target at $1.86 that may hold early tomorrow. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2.027 and makes the connection to $1.78 and $1.70. Resistance at $1.95 is expected to hold and $2.02 is key. Settling above $2.02 would shift near-term odds in favor of $2.07 and possibly higher before another downturn.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.