WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The quantitative outlook for WTI crude oil has become muddled during the past couple of days. Even so, longer-term odds will continue to lean bearish while the $41.72 swing high holds. A deeper test of support is expected tomorrow but given the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish technical factors, there is a good chance that WTI will settle into a trading range for a few days while it sorts through external factors.

WTI crude oil’s post-settlement decline has formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick and drove prices back below the 100-day moving average. Although the daily candlestick won’t reflect this due to the $40.67 settlement, the decline is negative for tomorrow’s forecast and calls for a deeper test of support.

Additionally, this afternoon’s decline also confirmed an intra-day double top between the $40.83 and $40.86 swing highs that was confirmed by the move below the $40.15 swing low. The target for this small pattern is $39.5, but the more important confluence point is $39.2. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.63 and connects to $38.3, the 62 percent retracement. For the move up to have a reasonable chance at continuing during the next few days $38.3 must hold. Closing below $38.3 will call for $37.7 and then $37.0, the latter of which is the barrier to a much more bearish outlook.

With that said, the challenge is that today’s move up overcame the $40.80 swing high and invalidated all of the subwaves down from $41.72 that called for a bigger decline. More importantly, WTI settled above the $39.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $36.58. This implies that WTI might rise to challenge the $41.8 equal to (1.00) target. This would take out the $41.72 swing high and invalidate the larger wave down from $44.05 that settled below its $37.10 smaller than target on Friday. This wave calls for a decline into the mid-to-low $30s. Therefore, this is the cause of what will likely be become a tug-of-war between bulls and bears during the next few days.

Should WTI overcome $40.5 early tomorrow look for a test of $41.2 and possibly $41.8. As stated, rising to $41.8 would invalidate the primary wave down from $44.05 and shift longer-term odds in favor of a continued rise.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil stalled at the 100-day moving average and formed a double top around $43.84. This pattern was confirmed by this afternoon’s decline below $42.12 and calls for a test of $41.3 tomorrow. This is near the double top’s target and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $38.79. Settling below $41.3 will call for $40.3 and possibly $39.4. The $39.4 objective is most important but will likely hold for now because it looks as though Brent will settle into a trading range for a few days before committing to a longer-term directional move.

Nevertheless, should Brent overcome $43.0, look for a test of $43.9 and then $44.5. Rising to $44.5 would take out the $44.3 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $46.99 that took out its $39.91 smaller than target on Friday. Overcoming $44.3 would strongly imply that the move down is over and that a longer-term bullish recovery is underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil’s move up from $38.87 stalled short of the $41.1 objective and finally proved to be corrective of the decline from $41.72. WTI took out the $39.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and stalled marginally below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. The move down might become a grind during the next few days, but odds favor a test of the $38.0 equal to (1.00) target. Closing below this would then call for the key objective at $37.1. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the bigger wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.1 would clear the way for much lower prices and a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, because the move down stalled at the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 and $39.0 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance early tomorrow. Initial resistance at $39.7 is expected to hold and key resistance is $40.5. Settling above $40.5 would shift near-term odds back in favor of making a push toward $41.6. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $36.58 and the barrier for renewed a bullish outlook.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.88, confirmed the $43.07/$43.03 pseudo double top, and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $44.30. Brent is now poised to extend to $40.3, a close below which will call for a test of key support and the barrier to a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks at $39.9.

With that said, the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $43.07 held today. Therefore, there is a modest chance for a test of $42.2 before taking out $40.9. Key near-term resistance is $43.0. Closing above this will call for a test of $43.6, which then connects to $45.3 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for November WTI crude oil leans bullish after holding the 100-day moving average for the second straight day and holding the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 on a closing basis. This is a tight call though, and today’s long-legged doji reflects uncertainty headed into tomorrow.

Nevertheless, the wave formation up from $38.87 is poised to test its $40.1 smaller than (0.618) target. This then connects to a key objective at $40.6 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $40.6 objective is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.72. Settling above $40.6 will clear the way for $41.2 and then $42.1. The $42.1 objective is most important because this is the smaller than target of the primary wave up from $36.58. Settling above $42.1 will put odds firmly in favor of higher prices.

With that said, the late move up from $39.19 stalled near the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $40.27. Also, the choppy nature of today’s move up from $38.87 implies that today’s price action might be corrective of the move down from $41.72. Should WTI fall below $39.1, look for a test of crucial support at $38.5. This is the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. Settling below this will significantly dampen odds for a continued rise and would call for key near-term support at $37.2. This is in line with the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.2 would confirm a bearish outlook for WTI in the coming weeks.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil settled below the 100-day moving average for the second straight day. This was bearish for the outlook, but today’s long-legged doji reflects uncertainty after Monday’s decline. Also, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.3 at $41.0 has held and the wave up from $40.96 is poised to challenge its $42.0 smaller than (0.618) target. Rising above this will call for $42.5, which then connects to $43.2 and higher.

Conversely, the move up from $40.96 has been rather choppy and may prove to be a correction. Should Brent take out $41.0 look for a test of $40.3. Settling below $40.3 would call for another test of key support and the barrier to a longer-term bearish outlook at $39.3.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil broke higher out of an intra-day coil pattern (dark blue dotted lines) and settled the day above the $38.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $36.13 (red). The $38.1 level was also the midpoint of the September 8 candlestick. This was positive for the near-term outlook and calls for a test of $39.0 tomorrow. However, $39.0 will likely hold.

The $39.0 objective is extremely important for the near-term outlook because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $36.13 (red) and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $43.78 (pink). Settling above this would warn that the recent move down might already be complete and would call for a test of $40.0 and higher.

Nevertheless, aside from today’s move up, the rise from $36.13 has been extremely shallow and choppy. Therefore, this move is most likely corrective. Additionally, the move up from $36.13 could form a bearish flag pattern if $39.0 holds. This is because a trend line parallel to the lower trend line of the coil (gray dotted line) will intersect with $39.0 tomorrow.

Once $39.0 is met, odds for a test of $37.6 will increase. Holding $39.0 and settling below $37.6 will confirm that a flag is forming and will call for a test of $37.1. This is currently the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.13 and is in line with the potential flag’s lower trend line. Settling below $37.1 will call for another test of $36.0.

Granted, $36.0 was and still is, major support for the longer-term outlook. Therefore, the move down might be complete. However, the fate of WTI’s near-term outlook will be determined by holding or closing above $39.0 tomorrow.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent formed a double bottom around $39.3 that will be confirmed by a close above the $41.20 swing high. The target of the double bottom is $43.1. Based on the waves up from $39.30, Brent should rise to $41.3 tomorrow. However, an immediate close above this (and the $41.20 swing high) will likely be a challenge because $41.3 is the 100-day moving average.

Once $41.3 is met, odds for a test of $39.9 will rise. Settling below $39.9 would imply that a rectangle pattern is forming instead of a double bottom. This pattern would be bearish for the outlook rather than bullish. In this case, odds would shift in favor of testing $39.3, a close below which would call for the move down from $46.61 to continue.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.