Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
Natural gas overcame $2.96 as called for and challenged the next objective at $3.04. Today’s close well above $2.96 and the psychologically important $3.00 level is bullish for the outlook. This calls for natural gas to challenge at least $3.09 and likely $3.14 during the next few days. The $3.14 objective is a crucial objective for the primary wave up from $2.072. However, $2.96 was in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $3.373, and this wave targets $3.20 as its equal to target. Therefore, odds for an eventual move above $3.14 to $3.20 and higher have increased based on the close above $2.96.
Natural Gas – $0.035 Kase Bar Chart
With that said, the $3.04 target discussed in yesterday’s update is a confluent projection of the subwaves up from $2.373 and $2.610. Also, the move up from 2.638 lacks a clear wave structure that is large enough to support a continued rise. Therefore, a test of support will probably take place soon, and almost certainly before natural gas overcomes $3.14.
Nevertheless, any move down will be corrective of the move up. Should natural gas turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $2.96 and key near-term support at $2.90. Settling below $2.90 is doubtful but would clear the way for a more substantial test of support before the move up ultimately continues.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. For the past few weeks, December WTI has been stuck in a wide range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0 and formed a double bottom around $37.0. Last week, prices oscillated within a smaller range between approximately $39.4 and $41.7. This was in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and was just below the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom.
Today, December WTI broke higher out of this small recent range but stalled at $41.90. The break higher was bullish for the outlook though, and the move up is poised to reach $42.3 during the next couple of days. This is the most confluent objective on the chart. Setting above $42.3 will establish a bullish uptrend because this will confirm the double bottom, which targets $47.0, and also invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had taken out its $37.6 smaller than (0.618) target a few weeks ago.
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
With that said, the late throwback from $41.90 back into the recent range between $39.4 and $41.7 reflects uncertainty and suggests a test of $40.5 might take place first. Falling below $40.5 will take out a few of the smaller waves that call for $42.3 and higher. This will also call for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.93 and is expected to hold. Closing below $40.0 will call for key near-term support at $39.4, a close below which will shift odds in favor of testing $38.8 and possibly lower.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
Brent rose a bit higher today but its move up has been more hesitant than WTI’s. Nevertheless, the decline from $43.57 forms a corrective range that should break higher soon. Also, $43.3 was met, so the wave formations now call for a test of $43.8. This then connects to $44.4 and higher.
The $43.3 target was quite important for the near-term outlook, so the throwback from this objective late this afternoon is not surprising. Support at $42.2 is expected to hold and $41.4 is key for the near-term. Settling below $41.4 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in external factors and call for $40.5 and possibly lower in the coming days.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
The outlook for gold remains bearish and the move up from $1877.1 is most likely corrective of the recent decline from $1927.0. Closing below $1879 will clear the way for $1855 and lower. Nonetheless, there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance first, but $1908 is expected to hold.
Gold – $15 Kase Bar Chart
Gold’s recent decline from $1927.0 stalled near the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1851.0. The subsequent move up has been shallow and choppy and is most likely forming a bearish flag that is poised to break lower during the next day or so. Closing below $1879 will confirm that the move down is extending again and will call for $1855 and then $1842. The $1842 level is most important for the near-term because a close below this will clear the way for the next major objective at $1812.
With that said, the small waves up from $1877.1 suggest a test of $1908 might take place first. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1927.0 and is expected to hold. Closing above $1908 will call for $1924, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1851.0. This is a key threshold for the near-term because a close above $1924 will clear the way for $1942 and likely $1955.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
Natural gas is settling into a trading range as expected. Near-term technical factors are well balanced, and the narrowing range is forming a coil pattern. In this case, the coil is taking shape after a decline, so odds would normally favor a break lower out of the pattern. However, coils are not the most reliable patterns in regard to predicting a directional breakout. Coils reflect uncertainty, which is currently the case for natural gas as it sorts through conflicting short-term bullish and bearish external factors (weather forecasts, hurricane shut-ins/demand destruction, LNG demand, falling production, etc.).
This afternoon’s move is a good example of the recent indecisiveness. After rising to challenge the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.373 at the $2.686 swing high, prices fell to test the smaller than target of the wave down from $2.727 at the $2.540 swing low. This was also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.466. The subsequent move up to $2.633 stalled at the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2.686.
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
With that said, natural gas will likely remain range-bound for another day or two. During that time, the waves that form should help determine the direction of the pending coil breakout.
For now, based on this afternoon’s decline from $2.633, odds lean in favor of testing coil’s lower trendline around $2.54 early tomorrow. This level will probably hold, at least initially. Nevertheless, a close below $2.54 will call for $2.46, which then connects to key lower support at $2.40.
Conversely, should natural gas fail to reach $2.54 before overcoming $2.67 a short-fall within the coil will form. This is a bullish signal that triggers when prices within a pattern like a coil fail to test a trendline, in this case, the lower trendline around $2.54. Settling above $2.67 will call for key resistance at $2.76, which then connects to $2.83 and higher.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
The quantitative outlook for WTI crude oil has become muddled during the past couple of days. Even so, longer-term odds will continue to lean bearish while the $41.72 swing high holds. A deeper test of support is expected tomorrow but given the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish technical factors, there is a good chance that WTI will settle into a trading range for a few days while it sorts through external factors.
WTI crude oil’s post-settlement decline has formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick and drove prices back below the 100-day moving average. Although the daily candlestick won’t reflect this due to the $40.67 settlement, the decline is negative for tomorrow’s forecast and calls for a deeper test of support.
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
Additionally, this afternoon’s decline also confirmed an intra-day double top between the $40.83 and $40.86 swing highs that was confirmed by the move below the $40.15 swing low. The target for this small pattern is $39.5, but the more important confluence point is $39.2. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.63 and connects to $38.3, the 62 percent retracement. For the move up to have a reasonable chance at continuing during the next few days $38.3 must hold. Closing below $38.3 will call for $37.7 and then $37.0, the latter of which is the barrier to a much more bearish outlook.
With that said, the challenge is that today’s move up overcame the $40.80 swing high and invalidated all of the subwaves down from $41.72 that called for a bigger decline. More importantly, WTI settled above the $39.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $36.58. This implies that WTI might rise to challenge the $41.8 equal to (1.00) target. This would take out the $41.72 swing high and invalidate the larger wave down from $44.05 that settled below its $37.10 smaller than target on Friday. This wave calls for a decline into the mid-to-low $30s. Therefore, this is the cause of what will likely be become a tug-of-war between bulls and bears during the next few days.
Should WTI overcome $40.5 early tomorrow look for a test of $41.2 and possibly $41.8. As stated, rising to $41.8 would invalidate the primary wave down from $44.05 and shift longer-term odds in favor of a continued rise.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
Brent crude oil stalled at the 100-day moving average and formed a double top around $43.84. This pattern was confirmed by this afternoon’s decline below $42.12 and calls for a test of $41.3 tomorrow. This is near the double top’s target and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $38.79. Settling below $41.3 will call for $40.3 and possibly $39.4. The $39.4 objective is most important but will likely hold for now because it looks as though Brent will settle into a trading range for a few days before committing to a longer-term directional move.
Nevertheless, should Brent overcome $43.0, look for a test of $43.9 and then $44.5. Rising to $44.5 would take out the $44.3 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $46.99 that took out its $39.91 smaller than target on Friday. Overcoming $44.3 would strongly imply that the move down is over and that a longer-term bullish recovery is underway.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
The near-term outlook for gold is bullish after settling above the $1851.0 double bottom’s $1911 target today. The move up is poised to reach $1938. This is the highest the wave up from $1851.0 projects and is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2089.2. Gold will likely be hard-pressed to close above $1938 without a test of support first. Therefore, once $1938 is met odds for a significant test of resistance will rise to better than even. Nevertheless, closing above $1938 would warn that the move down from $2089.2 might be complete and would call for $1958 and higher.
Gold – $15 Kase Bar Chart
Should gold turn lower before reaching $1938 look for initial support at $1892 and key near-term support at $1877. Closing below $1877 will shift odds back in favor of challenging $1851 and then $1840.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
Natural gas held major support at $2.43 and today’s move up implies that a larger test of resistance should take place tomorrow. The move up is still considered to be corrective of the recent decline and must settle above $2.67 to state that the move down might be complete. Natural gas will have to settle above $2.78 to reestablish a firm bullish outlook. Such a move is doubtful without a significant boost from external factors.
Near-term odds favor at least $2.60 and likely $2.67. These are the smaller than (0.618) and equal to (1.00) targets of the primary wave up from $2.425. The $2.67 objective is also near the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.002 and is Tuesday’s midpoint. Settling above this would suggest that the move down is complete. However, as stated above, November natural gas will have to settle above $2.78 to confirm a bullish outlook.
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
With that said, the overarching bias remains bearish due to Tuesday’s decline and the large seasonal rollover gap on the continuation chart. Even so, $2.43 is major support that could form a bullish base because it is the equal to target of the wave down from $3.002, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.072, and the 200-day moving average. Therefore, while $2.43 holds, near-term odds will continue to favor a larger test of resistance.
Should natural gas take out $2.48 early tomorrow look for another test of $2.43. Settling below this will call for a much more significant move down before stalling again.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
WTI crude oil’s move up from $38.87 stalled short of the $41.1 objective and finally proved to be corrective of the decline from $41.72. WTI took out the $39.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and stalled marginally below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. The move down might become a grind during the next few days, but odds favor a test of the $38.0 equal to (1.00) target. Closing below this would then call for the key objective at $37.1. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the bigger wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.1 would clear the way for much lower prices and a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks.
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
Nevertheless, because the move down stalled at the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 and $39.0 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance early tomorrow. Initial resistance at $39.7 is expected to hold and key resistance is $40.5. Settling above $40.5 would shift near-term odds back in favor of making a push toward $41.6. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $36.58 and the barrier for renewed a bullish outlook.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
Brent settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.88, confirmed the $43.07/$43.03 pseudo double top, and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $44.30. Brent is now poised to extend to $40.3, a close below which will call for a test of key support and the barrier to a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks at $39.9.
With that said, the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $43.07 held today. Therefore, there is a modest chance for a test of $42.2 before taking out $40.9. Key near-term resistance is $43.0. Closing above this will call for a test of $43.6, which then connects to $45.3 and higher.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
The outlook for December COMEX gold is bearish after breaking lower out of a coil pattern last week and settling below a crucial $1888 objective on Wednesday. The sustained close below $1888, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2, calls for gold to reach the $1810 equal to (1.00) target in the coming days.
Gold – $15 Kase Bar Chart
However, there is strong near-term support around $1843. This is the most confluent wave projection and is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $1458.8. Today’s formation of a hammer also suggests that a larger test of resistance might take place before the decline continues.
The $1888 level has become initial resistance and will likely hold. However, the increase in volatility during the past few days could help drive gold to challenge $1905. These are the completion and confirmation points for today’s hammer pattern, respectively. Settling above $1905 is doubtful but would dampen odds for a continued decline during the next few days and would shift near-term odds in favor of challenging $1930 and possibly $1954.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
October natural gas finally rallied after holding support around $1.82. The prompt month’s move up should be bolstered by rising winter prices and a bullish shift in near-term external factors.
October settled below $2.16, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.743 and the XC (2.764) projection. This objective was also in line with October’s 100- and 200-day moving averages. Nevertheless, the post-settlement rise to $2.207 implies that near-term sentiment remains bullish headed into tomorrow.
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
The next major objectives for October natural gas are $2.27 and $2.38. The $2.27 target is the 50 percent retracement from $2.743 and 50-day moving average. The $2.38 target is the 62 percent retracement. Settling above $2.38 will call for $2.44, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1.70 that connects to $2.84 and higher.
The challenge for tomorrow is that the wave formation up from $1.795 does not project any higher than $2.22. This is the trend terminus for that wave and the move up from $1.808 lacks a clear wave structure. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of support before prices rise much higher.
There is immediate support at $2.11 but given the increase in volatility, a test of $2.05 is probable. Key support is $1.99. This is the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1.795 and today’s midpoint. Closing below $1.99 would call for $1.95 and $1.84, the latter of which is the barrier to an unlikely bearish outlook in the coming weeks.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
