WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil took out $44.6 and fell to challenge support around $43.9. This lower objective, which is adjusted to $43.8 for tomorrow, is a highly confluent and crucial wave projection and retracement. Another attempted test of $43.8 is expected. However, settling below $43.8 might prove to be a challenge because the decline from $46.26 is most likely corrective and forms a bullish flag that should break higher during the next few days.

Nevertheless, taking out $43.8 will negate the flag and clear the way for $43.3 and possibly $42.8. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the primary wave down from $46.26.

That said, the long-term outlook for WTI is bullish, and as stated, the decline from $46.26 will most likely prove to be a correction of the move up from $34.04. Furthermore, should WTI overcome $44.9 before taking out $43.8 look for a test of key near-term resistance at the $45.8 intra-day swing high. Overcoming $45.8 will invalidate the wave down from $46.26 that calls for $43.8 and lower and will confirm a break higher out of the bullish flag. This will clear the way for a test of crucial resistance at $46.4.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil fell to challenge support at $46.8 as called for. The decline from $49.0 is most likely corrective and forms a bullish flag that should break higher in the coming days. However, the primary wave down from $49.0 now calls for a test of $46.4 first. Closing below this tomorrow will negate the flag and clear the way for $45.7 and possibly $45.2 instead.

For now, Brent is expected to hold $47.7 as the move down extends toward $46.4. Overcoming $47.7 will call for key near-term resistance at $48.3. Rising above this will invalidate the wave down from $49.0 that calls for $46.4 and lower and will confirm a break higher out of the bullish flag.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil has rallied as called for in this week’s forecast and yesterday’s update. Today’s move up was more aggressive than anticipated but fulfilled a confluent target around $45.1. So far, this has proved to be a stalling point. Nonetheless, the decline from today’s $45.2 high forms a bullish flag on the intra-day charts. A deeper test of support might take place early tomorrow, but odds now favor a move to the next major objective and a bullish decision point at $45.4. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $26.22, a close above which will confirm a long-term bullish outlook and a resumption of the uptrend that began in late April.

Nevertheless, after such a large single day move up WTI might pull back a bit on profit taking before rising much higher. Moreover, $45.4 is a crucial objective and there is also a tremendous amount of resistance between $46.0 and $46.5. Therefore, once the $45.4 target is fulfilled a reasonably significant test of support should take place before prices rise above $46.5. For now, support at $44.0 will likely hold and $42.8 is key support for the near-term.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for Brent crude oil is firmly bearish after settling above the $46.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $29.35 today. This confirms a long-term bullish outlook and resumes the uptrend that began in late April. The move up is now poised to reach at $48.6, $49.1, and possibly $50.0. The $48.6 target is highly confluent but $50.0 is most important. Another reasonably significant test of support is expected once $48.6 is met and before $50.0 is overcome.

As the move up extends toward $48.6 and possibly higher today’s $46.9 midpoint is expected to hold. Key near-term support is $45.9. Settling below this would indicate a significant test of support is underway before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The focus of the WTI analysis is switched to the January 2021 contract today because December will expire on Friday, November 20.

The outlook for WTI remains clouded as the market is sorting through a multitude of external factors, most importantly COVID-19 related news, that seems to shift on a day-to-day basis. January WTI is trading in a very choppy, and likely corrective, decline from last week’s $43.33 swing high. However, as stated in yesterday’s update, for the near-term, without further help from external factors there is more downside risk than upside potential. Therefore, near-term odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

Falling below $40.9 will clear the way for a test of $40.4, the smaller than (0.618) target of the newly formed primary wave down from $43.33. Settling below $40.4 will clear the way for $39.8 and eventually the $39.4 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, trading is expected to continue to be erratic for the interim. Based on the wave up from $40.33, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $42.1 and possibly $42.9 first. The $42.9 level is expected to hold. Closing above this would reflect another bullish shift in near-term sentiment and call for $43.5 and then the next major objective at $44.1.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

January Brent is trading in a choppy, and most likely corrective, range. Even so, the newly formed primary wave down from $45.3 fulfilled its $43.02 smaller than (0.618) target when Brent fell to $43.08 today. This is bearish for the near-term and calls for test of the $41.9 equal to (1.00) target before the move up from $36.4 continues. Falling below $43.0 will call for $42.5 and eventually $41.9.

That said, the late move up from $43.08 might test $44.1 first. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $42.63 and connects to $44.8 as the equal to target. Rising to $44.8 will dampen odds for a decline to $41.9 during the next few days. Nonetheless, $44.8 is expected to hold. Closing above this would shift near-term odds in favor of rising to $45.8 and higher.This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil is firmly bullish and the move up is poised to challenge crucial resistance at $42.0. This is a highly confluent wave projection, retracement, and swing high. Overcoming $42.0 will invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had called for $32.0 and lower during the past few weeks. Rising above $42.0 will also confirm a long-term bullish reversal is unfolding, clearing the way for $42.8 and likely $44.9.

Nevertheless, when the outlook for WTI has been most positive in recent months the move up has stalled near $42.0 and turned lower to challenge support again. There is no evidence that this will be the case again, but caution is warranted.

Should WTI take out $40.8 before overcoming $42.0 look for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is expected to hold. Key support is $38.8. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $37.06 and the 38 percent retracement from $33.64. Closing below $38.8 would imply that another major test of support is underway before the move up attempts to overcome $42.0 again.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for Brent is quite bullish after settling above the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $36.40 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $47.31. This afternoon’s post-settlement rally has overcome the $43.99 swing high and the move up is now poised to test $44.6. This is the last level protecting the $44.67 swing high. Closing above this will clear the way for $45.3 and likely $46.4 during the next few days.

Initial support is $43.1, a move below which will call for $42.4. Support at $42.4 is expected to hold. Key support and the barrier to a bearish near-term outlook is $41.2. Settling below this would shift near-term odds in favor of testing $39.9 and possibly lower before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.