Gold Price Forecast – January 28, 2021

Tag: Technical Analysis

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold retains a bearish near-term outlook after falling to the $1834 smaller than (0.618) target of the newly formed primary wave down from $1874.6. There is immediate support at $1829 still. However, barring any random influence from external factors, this wave down from $1874.6 is now poised to reach its $1817 equal to (1.00) target. Closing below $1817 will clear the way for $1802 and lower.

Gold - $15 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $15 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the decline from $1874.6 has been quite choppy and might still prove to be corrective of a larger move up from $1800.8. Should gold overcome $1855 look for a test of $1874. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $1800.8 and the barrier to a more significant test of resistance. Settling above $1874 would clear the way for $1902 and possibly $1926, the higher of which is the gateway to a bullish outlook.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for natural gas is bullish after meeting the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $2.425 and settling above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2.835 and the 50-day moving average. Closing above $2.74 will call for a test of $2.78, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $2.268. This is also the barrier to a more bullish outlook during the next few weeks.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, overcoming $2.78 will require another significant boost from bullish external factors (e.g., cold weather). Without such a spark there is still a reasonable chance that natural gas prices are settling into a trading range between nominally $2.78 and $2.49.

To that end, this afternoon’s pullback from today’s $2.74 high has already retraced 21 percent of the rise from $2.425. This pullback suggests that there is a reasonable chance for a deeper test of support before rising to challenge $2.74 again. For the move up to overcome $2.74 and make the push to $2.78 during the next few days, $2.62 must hold. Closing below this would signal that a trading range is forming and call for $2.55 and possibly $2.49. The $2.49 level is the gateway for a bearish outlook because this is the smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave down from $2.835.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose to challenge $53.3 as called for in yesterday’s update. The move up stalled near this threshold and began to pull back again. So far, the move down from $53.25 has retraced just over 38 percent of the move up from $51.44. This is still not a clear call higher or lower, but based on today’s price action, odds lean in favor of testing $51.8 tomorrow. Closing below this will clear the way for $50.6, a confluent wave projection, retracement, and the target for the intra-day triple top that formed around $53.9.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the move down from $53.94 will prove to be corrective of the larger scale uptrend. Furthermore, because $52.56, the 38 percent retracement if the rise from $51.44, held on a closing basis there is still a good chance that the pullback from $52.35 is a simple correction of the wave formation up from $51.44. Should WTI overcome $53.3 look for a test of the $53.94 swing high. Settling above this will clear the way for $54.8 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold gained a bit of bullish momentum for the near-term after rising above the $1864 swing high and settling back above the 200-day moving average yesterday. Furthermore, the wave up from $1800.8 fulfilled its $1866 smaller than (0.618) target. This is important because waves that meet the smaller than target generally fulfill their equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1885. Settling above $1885 will call for a test of the $1905 intermediate (1.382) target, which is also in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1962.5.

Gold - $15 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $15 Kase Bar Chart

As stated in yesterday’s analysis, for the larger scale move down to retain a reasonable chance at extending $1905 must hold. Closing above $1905 would imply that gold is adopting a firmer bullish outlook and call for a test of $1922. This is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $1800.8 and the smaller than target of the more important wave up from $1767.2.

Nevertheless, today’s lackluster follow-through after yesterday’s rally formed a daily hanging man. Normally, this type of pattern is most effective at predicting a reversal at the top of a long-term uptrend. Even so, today’s trading suggests the move up might still prove to be a short-lived correction. Falling below $1846 will call for key support at $1829. Closing below $1829 will confirm the hanging man and invalidate the wave up from $1800.8 that makes the connection to $1885 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas fell as expected this morning and took out support around $2.51 before stalling at the $2.45 target. Taking out $2.51 was bearish for the outlook because this is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.263. However, $2.51 held on a closing basis and a daily bullish hammer formed. This pattern suggests natural gas will rise to challenge resistance around $2.62 during the next couple of days and that prices might begin to consolidate into a trading range while waiting on more information from supply/demand factors (e.g., weather).

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

Natural gas might be hard-pressed to overcome $2.62 without a bullish shift in weather or other factors. However, closing above $2.62 will call for $2.67 and possibly $2.73. Settling above $2.73 would reflect a renewed bullish shift in sentiment and call for $2.85, the barrier to a firm bullish outlook.

With that said, a one day move up and unconfirmed hammer pattern is not enough to definitively call for the recent move down to end. Yesterday’s gap down and decline below the $2.589 swing low was a clear bearish shift in recent sentiment. Taking out $2.50 will call for another test of $2.45, a close below which will clear the way for a continued decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil initially fell today but stalled at $51.81 before rising to $53.18 where the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $53.94 was challenged. Even so, this level and Friday’s midpoint held on a closing basis. Also, Friday’s bearish engulfing line and the double top around $53.9 are still intact. Therefore, odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues. Closing below $52.3 will confirm the double top and clear the way for WTI to fall toward the pattern’s $50.6 target in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, WTI’s uptrend has been resilient in recent weeks. Any recent attempt at a significant test of support has been quickly negated and any reversal patterns have been wiped out shortly after forming. Today’s move up suggests this might be another case in which overly bullish sentiment will win out over bearish fundamental and technical factors. Should WTI overcome $53.13 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $53.9. Closing above $53.9 will wipe out the double top and bearish engulfing line and clear the way for at least $54.5 and probably higher before another attempt at a significant pullback.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The longer-term outlook for gold is bearish once again after the pullback from $1962.5 accelerated and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1973.3 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2. The subsequent move up from $1817.1 has been shallow and choppy and is most likely corrective. Moreover, today’s decline to $1826.6 wiped out most of the intra-day waves that had formed during the move up from $1817.1.

Near-term odds also favor a continued decline. A move below $1835 will call for $1820 and $1808. Settling below $1808 will clear the way for $1789 and lower.

Gold - $15 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $15 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the move up from today’s $1826.6 low met the smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave up from $1817.1. Therefore, this wave has a reasonable chance of rising to challenge its $1873 equal to (1.00) target before the decline continues. Rising above $1856 early tomorrow will increase odds for a test of $1873. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1962.5 and is expected to hold. Closing above $1873 would call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for natural gas in the coming weeks is bullish after breaking higher out of a broadening wedge and meeting the $2.90 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $2.263. This wave now favors an eventual rise above the crucial and psychologically important $3.00 level to reach its $3.10 equal to (1.00) target.

However, the 50-day moving average held on a closing basis again and the decline from $2.899 has formed two sequential daily shooting stars. The wave formation is also poised to test $2.66 before the move up continues. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish.

Natural Gas - $0.025 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.025 Kase Bar Chart

The move down is most likely a corrective throwback to test the upper trend line of the broadening wedge, which is in line with $2.66. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.263. Therefore, $2.66 is expected to hold. Closing below this will dampen odds for a continued rise and call for $2.58 and then a test of key support and the barrier to a renewed bearish outlook at $2.52.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rallied again today and negated the hanging man and bearish momentum signals that formed Monday. The daily KasePO and RSI momentum oscillators are overbought, the KaseCD and MACD are setup for bearish divergence, and the wave structure is due for a test of support after overcoming the $52.1 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $27.22. However, the challenge is that each time bearish patterns or signals form WTI rises and wipes out the negative technical factors. The rate at which prices are rising is unsustainable and a significant test of support is expected soon. However, as of this afternoon, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall, so the near-term outlook remains bullish.

WTI Crude Oil - Daily Chart
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart

The $53.5 target is the most confluent objective and the next logical stalling point based on the waves and subwaves up from $34.50. Most importantly, this is the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $34.50. Upon a close above $53.5, the next probable stalling point is the $55.4 larger than (1.618) target.

As stated, there are no bearish patterns or signals as of this afternoon that call for the move up to stall tomorrow. Nevertheless, caution is warranted due to the overbought state of the daily RSI and KasePO. Should WTI take out $52.7 look for a test of key near-term support at $52.1. Settling below $52.1 will open the way for a deeper test of support during the next few days with thresholds at $51.6 and $50.9.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold has begun to take on a more positive long-term outlook during the past few weeks. The primary wave up from $1767.2 is still poised to eventually challenge a bullish decision point at $1974. However, the move up stalled at $1962.5, and the subsequent pullback to $1902.6 completed a daily bearish evening star and KaseCD momentum divergence signal. Therefore, the near-term outlook is bearish and a close below the 100-day moving average around $1906 will clear the way for $1891 and possibly $1867 during the next few days. Settling below $1867 is currently doubtful but would call for a bearish decision point at $1838 to be challenged. Closing below this would strongly suggest that the move up has failed and that the larger-scale decline from $2099.2 will continue.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

With that said, trading was quite choppy today and held the 100-day moving average for the second straight day. Should gold overcome $1935, yesterday’s midpoint and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1962.5, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $1955. Settling above this would reaffirm a positive near-term outlook and call for a test of the $1974 bullish decision point.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.