Natural Gas Price Forecast – May 22, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas initially fell as called for in Tuesday’s update but held the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.798 before prices rallied again. The move up has been relentless for the past few weeks and is rising at an unsustainable rate. Furthermore, the wave formation up from $1.907 is overextended, daily momentum oscillators are overbought, and the move up is due for a correction.

The challenge is that there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Therefore, the near-term outlook remains bullish. Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.446 at $2.86. This is a point from which a correction should take place. Closing above $2.86 will call for $2.92 and another potential stalling point at $2.97, which is the 21 percent retracement of the decline from the $6.947 contract high.

That said, today’s $2.851 high might have been enough to fulfill the $2.86 objective, so caution is warranted. Prices pulled back from the $2.851 swing high late in the day and may test today’s $2.75 midpoint. Falling below this will call for a test of key near-term support and today’s open at $2.67. Settling below $2.67 would put near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support in the coming days where $2.49 is most important.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil tested and held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 at $80.1 on Monday. The subsequent pullback from $80.11 challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $76.36 at $77.8 and 100- and 200-day moving averages today. This level also held on a closing basis. Even so, holding $80.1 and pulling back to test $77.8 warns that the move up from $76.36 is a completed correction.

Falling below $78.0 will invalidate the wave up from $77.65 which shows potential to test $79.4 early tomorrow. This will also open the way for a test of the $77.5 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.11. Taking out $77.5 will clear the way for a move below the $77.1 intermediate (1.382) targets of the waves down from $86.16 and $84.86 to challenge $76.7 and then a long-term bearish decision point at $75.8.

This is still a tight call for the next few days though. This is because the wave up from $77.65 fulfilled its $78.9 smaller than target. Waves that meet the smaller than target typically extend to at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $79.4. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of $79.4 first. For the move down to extend as expected, $79.4 should hold. Overcoming $79.4 would call for a test of a highly confluent level and key resistance at $80.1. This is now the smaller than target of the wave up from $76.36, a close above which will shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil testing $80.9 and then this wave’s $81.4 equal to target in the coming days.

Copper Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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LME copper rose as called for and challenged the $10442 target at today’s $10445.5 high. This objective is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $9739 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $6955. This target is now adjusted to $10478, which is split between equal to target of the wave up from $6955 and the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $10504. This is the most important target on the chart due to its confluence and alignment with projections for these waves and the subwaves up from $8127. This is also an area in which a correction should take place before the uptrend extends. Daily and weekly momentum oscillators are also overbought. The challenge is that there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Therefore, a test of $10478 is probable within the next day or so. Closing above this will open the way for $10584 and higher.

That said, the post-settlement decline has formed a wave down from $10445.5 that shows potential to extend to its $10304 equal to (1.00) target early tomorrow. Taking out the $10355 smaller than (0.618) target will increase the odds for such a move. Falling below $10304 will call for a test of the $10220 larger than (1.618) target. Settling below $10220 would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the uptrend attempts to overcome the $10478 objective.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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June natural gas continued to rise as called for today. The move up negated Tuesday’s bearish Harami and tested the XC (2.764) projection of the subwave up from $1.907. Most importantly, prices settled above the $2.380 target of a rectangle that broke higher on May 6 and the last major swing high at $2.392. The move up is now poised to challenge targets around the psychologically and historically important $2.50 level in the coming days. Closing above the $2.43 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.214 will clear the way for $2.48, $2.52, and eventually a test of the $2.55 XC (2.764) projection of the primary wave up from $1.907.

That said, the daily Stochastic is overbought and the daily RSI and KasePO are nearing overbought territory. No bearish patterns or confirmed signals call for a reversal, but these factors warn that a test of support might take place soon. Moreover, there is a small wave down from $2.423 that projects to $2.39 at the smaller than target. Falling below this will call for a test of $2.36 and possibly key near-term support at $2.32. Settling below $2.32 would not mean that the move up has failed but would put the near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support where $2.23 is the next most important threshold.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is still trying to work its way lower and is poised to test the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 again. Support at $78.0 has held on a closing basis, but the recent waves down from $79.96 favor a test of $77.5 tomorrow. Settling below $77.5 will open the way for tests of $77.0, $76.5, and then a long-term bearish decision point at $76.0. The $76.0 target is most important because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08. A sustained close below $76.0 would reflect a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment for WTI crude oil.

With that said, support between $77.5 and $78.0 has been resilient. In addition to being a confluent area of wave projections at $77.5, the $78.0 level lines up with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Should this area continue to hold and WTI crude oil rises above $78.5 look for a test of $79.0 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.6. The $79.6 level is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $76.89. Settling above this would call for a test of this wave’s $80.8 equal to (1.00), which is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is trying to work its way lower but is struggling to settle below $78.0 support. This is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Even so, the outlook remains bearish and a close below $77.5, which is the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64, will open the way for $76.5 and then a bearish decision point at $76.0 to be challenged. The $76.0 target is most important because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and 62 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11. A test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $76.0. An eventual sustained close below $76.0 would confirm a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment and the outlook for the coming weeks.

With that said, the failure to close below $78.0 for the past few days warns that a test of resistance might take place before reaching $76.0. Any move up will likely be a correction though and is expected to hold key near-term resistance at $80.1. Settling above $80.1 would shift the odds in favor of a larger test of resistance for WTI crude oil before the move down extends.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June natural gas tested and held the lower threshold of a trading range between $1.91 and $2.14 again today. A rectangle pattern has formed, and prices are poised to break lower out of the pattern based upon today’s decline to $1.913. Wave projections at $1.92 have held on a closing basis, but prices settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the most recent wave down from $2.14 today. This wave calls for a test of its $1.86 equal to (1.00) target. Closing below this will confirm a break lower and open the way for tests of confluent objectives at $1.84 and $1.78 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, this is still a somewhat tight call because holding the lower threshold of the rectangle warns that there is a reasonable chance for another test of resistance within the pattern. Should prices rise above $1.98 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.03. Closing above this would shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas rising to challenge $2.10 and possibly the upper threshold of the rectangle at $2.14 again.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil fell to challenge resilient support at the $81.0 target of a confirmed double top that formed around $86.9. The $81.0 target held again, and prices formed a wave up from $80.95 that warns a test of $82.8 might take place first. Even so, the move up will likely be a correction because the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 have fulfilled their smaller than (0.618) targets. Waves that meet the smaller than target typically extend to at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $79.7 for both waves. Closing below $81.0 will open the way for tests of $80.3 and the $79.7 objective within the next few days.

With that said, WTI crude oil’s pullback from $86.97 may form a bullish flat descending triangle. This is a continuation pattern, a break higher out of which would be confirmed by a close above key near-term resistance at $84.6. Should WTI crude oil overcome $82.8 look for a test of $83.3 and possibly $84.6. Settling above $84.6 would strongly suggest that the corrective pullback from $86.97 is complete and shift the odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $$85.1 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to test the $2350 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 before pulling back again. This implies that the wave up from $2304.6 will test its $2366 equal to (1.00) target. However, the pullback from $2350.9 took out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2324.8. Therefore, odds lean in favor of taking out the $2324.8 swing low to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.6 at $2322. This will invalidate the wave up from $2304.6 that projects to $2366 and higher. This will also call for a test of $2301 and then the $2283 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2448.8.

Nevertheless, while the $2324.8 swing low holds there is still a reasonable chance for a test of $2366. Closing above this will call for key resistance and larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 at $2400 to be challenged. The $2400 level is also the 62 percent retracement from $2448.8 and confirmation point of the bullish daily candlesticks that formed Tuesday and Wednesday. Settling above $2400 would imply that the corrective move down is complete, shifting the odds in favor of gold rising to $2433 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June natural gas has been trading in a range between approximately $1.92 and $2.14 since mid-March. Prices tried to break higher out of the range on Tuesday but held the $2.14 equal to (1.00) target of the prior primary wave up from $1.907. Today’s pullback from $2.140 took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.148 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.907. This was bearish for the outlook and calls for another test of the crucial $1.92 objective. Settling below $1.92 will call for a test of a minor target at $1.88 and then the next major objectives at $1.84 and $1.78 in the coming days.

Given the aggressive nature of today’s move down there is little technical evidence to call for the move down to stall before testing at least $1.92. However, should $1.92 continue to hold prices will likely continue to consolidate in the trading range. Should prices rise and overcome $2.03 look for a test of $2.07 and possibly key resistance and the smaller than (0.618) target of the new wave up from $1.907 at $2.11.