Gold Price Forecast – May 30, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August gold is struggling to take out support around $2346 and today’s doji warns that the move down from $2477 may be complete. However, a double top around $2474, last week’s bearish engulfing line, confirmed daily bearish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences, and a sustained close below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2308.7 imply a deeper test of support should still take place. Closing below $2346 will call for $2329 and then a test of the $2309 smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave down from $2477.

Nevertheless, the move down has been lackluster after last week’s decline from $2477. One could also make a case for a double bottom around $2347. Should prices rise tomorrow and overcome the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 at $2394 look for a test of $2410 and possibly key resistance at $2426. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477. Therefore, settling above $2426 would strongly imply that the move down from $2477 is a completed correction of the long-term uptrend.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July natural gas’ move down from $3.161 accelerated again today and settled below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.128. This implies that the move down is more than just a simple profit-taking correction. A more significant test of support is now favored.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 50 percent retracement and a confluent wave projection target around $2.64. Settling below this will call for a test of the $2.56 XC (2.764) projection of the largest wave down from $3.161. This is a potential stalling point. However, the waves down from $3.096 and $2.853 suggest that upon a close below $2.64 the move down could challenge $2.52 and $2.49 in the coming days. Settling below $2.52, which is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.128, is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in sentiment for the coming weeks.

The significance of the move down from $3.161 during the past few days suggests that the move up was overextended. There is little doubt that a long-term bottom has been made, so it now looks as though natural gas is looking to settle into a new trading range. Based on historical evidence, this range will most likely be between $2.50 and $3.00.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil surged higher today, overcoming the $80.11 swing high and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 late Monday afternoon. The $80.0 level held on a closing basis, but the post-settlement move above $80.0 implies that a break higher out of the recent trading range is taking place. The $80.11 swing high is also the confirmation point of a double bottom that formed between the $76.36 and $76.15 swing lows. The target for this pattern is $84.0. Today’s rise also confirmed daily bullish KasePO, RSI, and Stochastic divergences.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 20-day moving average and 50 percent retracement around $81.1. Settling above this will call for a test of the important 62 percent retracement at $82.3. Closing above $82.3 for a few days will imply that the corrective move down from $86.16 is complete and that WTI crude oil is adopting a longer-term bullish outlook again.

Should $80.0 continue to hold on a closing basis and WTI crude oil takes out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $76.15 and today’s midpoint at $78.7 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement, today’s open, and the 200-day moving average around $77.7. Settling below $77.7 would imply that the move up was an overreaction to external factors. This is doubtful but would put the odds back in favor of WTI crude oil falling below $76.6 to challenge a longer-term bearish decision point at $75.8.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s pullback from $2454.2 extended today and settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2285.2 and the 20-day moving average. Daily bearish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergence were also confirmed within the past few days. Currently, there is also a weekly bearish RSI divergence and a weekly bearish engulfing line. The move down is likely a correction of the uptrend, but these bearish technical factors imply that a significant test of support will likely unfold in the coming days.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2316. This is the lowest that the first wave down from $2454.2 projects, so this is a potential stalling point. Even so, a move up will probably be a correction of the recent pullback and should hold today’s $2360 midpoint. Settling below $2316 will clear the way for a test of $2284 and possibly a major support target at $2235 in the coming days.

Should gold overcome $2360 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2380. Settling above $2380 would warn that the corrective pullback is complete and call for a test of $2406 and possibly the $2433 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2285.2 instead.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas initially fell as called for in Tuesday’s update but held the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.798 before prices rallied again. The move up has been relentless for the past few weeks and is rising at an unsustainable rate. Furthermore, the wave formation up from $1.907 is overextended, daily momentum oscillators are overbought, and the move up is due for a correction.

The challenge is that there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Therefore, the near-term outlook remains bullish. Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.446 at $2.86. This is a point from which a correction should take place. Closing above $2.86 will call for $2.92 and another potential stalling point at $2.97, which is the 21 percent retracement of the decline from the $6.947 contract high.

That said, today’s $2.851 high might have been enough to fulfill the $2.86 objective, so caution is warranted. Prices pulled back from the $2.851 swing high late in the day and may test today’s $2.75 midpoint. Falling below this will call for a test of key near-term support and today’s open at $2.67. Settling below $2.67 would put near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support in the coming days where $2.49 is most important.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil tested and held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 at $80.1 on Monday. The subsequent pullback from $80.11 challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $76.36 at $77.8 and 100- and 200-day moving averages today. This level also held on a closing basis. Even so, holding $80.1 and pulling back to test $77.8 warns that the move up from $76.36 is a completed correction.

Falling below $78.0 will invalidate the wave up from $77.65 which shows potential to test $79.4 early tomorrow. This will also open the way for a test of the $77.5 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.11. Taking out $77.5 will clear the way for a move below the $77.1 intermediate (1.382) targets of the waves down from $86.16 and $84.86 to challenge $76.7 and then a long-term bearish decision point at $75.8.

This is still a tight call for the next few days though. This is because the wave up from $77.65 fulfilled its $78.9 smaller than target. Waves that meet the smaller than target typically extend to at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $79.4. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of $79.4 first. For the move down to extend as expected, $79.4 should hold. Overcoming $79.4 would call for a test of a highly confluent level and key resistance at $80.1. This is now the smaller than target of the wave up from $76.36, a close above which will shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil testing $80.9 and then this wave’s $81.4 equal to target in the coming days.

Copper Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

LME copper rose as called for and challenged the $10442 target at today’s $10445.5 high. This objective is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $9739 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $6955. This target is now adjusted to $10478, which is split between equal to target of the wave up from $6955 and the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $10504. This is the most important target on the chart due to its confluence and alignment with projections for these waves and the subwaves up from $8127. This is also an area in which a correction should take place before the uptrend extends. Daily and weekly momentum oscillators are also overbought. The challenge is that there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Therefore, a test of $10478 is probable within the next day or so. Closing above this will open the way for $10584 and higher.

That said, the post-settlement decline has formed a wave down from $10445.5 that shows potential to extend to its $10304 equal to (1.00) target early tomorrow. Taking out the $10355 smaller than (0.618) target will increase the odds for such a move. Falling below $10304 will call for a test of the $10220 larger than (1.618) target. Settling below $10220 would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the uptrend attempts to overcome the $10478 objective.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June natural gas continued to rise as called for today. The move up negated Tuesday’s bearish Harami and tested the XC (2.764) projection of the subwave up from $1.907. Most importantly, prices settled above the $2.380 target of a rectangle that broke higher on May 6 and the last major swing high at $2.392. The move up is now poised to challenge targets around the psychologically and historically important $2.50 level in the coming days. Closing above the $2.43 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.214 will clear the way for $2.48, $2.52, and eventually a test of the $2.55 XC (2.764) projection of the primary wave up from $1.907.

That said, the daily Stochastic is overbought and the daily RSI and KasePO are nearing overbought territory. No bearish patterns or confirmed signals call for a reversal, but these factors warn that a test of support might take place soon. Moreover, there is a small wave down from $2.423 that projects to $2.39 at the smaller than target. Falling below this will call for a test of $2.36 and possibly key near-term support at $2.32. Settling below $2.32 would not mean that the move up has failed but would put the near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support where $2.23 is the next most important threshold.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is still trying to work its way lower and is poised to test the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 again. Support at $78.0 has held on a closing basis, but the recent waves down from $79.96 favor a test of $77.5 tomorrow. Settling below $77.5 will open the way for tests of $77.0, $76.5, and then a long-term bearish decision point at $76.0. The $76.0 target is most important because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08. A sustained close below $76.0 would reflect a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment for WTI crude oil.

With that said, support between $77.5 and $78.0 has been resilient. In addition to being a confluent area of wave projections at $77.5, the $78.0 level lines up with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Should this area continue to hold and WTI crude oil rises above $78.5 look for a test of $79.0 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.6. The $79.6 level is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $76.89. Settling above this would call for a test of this wave’s $80.8 equal to (1.00), which is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is trying to work its way lower but is struggling to settle below $78.0 support. This is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Even so, the outlook remains bearish and a close below $77.5, which is the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64, will open the way for $76.5 and then a bearish decision point at $76.0 to be challenged. The $76.0 target is most important because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and 62 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11. A test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $76.0. An eventual sustained close below $76.0 would confirm a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment and the outlook for the coming weeks.

With that said, the failure to close below $78.0 for the past few days warns that a test of resistance might take place before reaching $76.0. Any move up will likely be a correction though and is expected to hold key near-term resistance at $80.1. Settling above $80.1 would shift the odds in favor of a larger test of resistance for WTI crude oil before the move down extends.