Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 16, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil settled below the $81.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.52 and the 20-day moving average today. The move down is likely a correction but is now poised to test at least $80.0. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $84.52 and 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44. A normal correction will hold $80.0, so settling below this objective may prove to be a challenge. Nonetheless, a sustained close below $80.0 will open the way for $79.5, $79.1, and then another major target at $78.6.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to fail before reaching $80.0. Even so, the move up from today’s $80.22 low could extend to test today’s $81.3 midpoint first. This level will likely hold. Overcoming $81.3 would call for WTI crude oil to test of key near-term resistance at $81.9. This is in line with today’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $84.52. Settling above $81.9 would warn that the move down is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $82.4 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $82.9.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August gold settled above the crucial $2412 objective today. This was in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477. Settling above $2412 implies that the corrective move down from $2477 is complete.

The $2431 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2327.4 held, but another test of this objective is expected. Settling above $2431 will call for a test of another highly confluent and key objective at $2458. The $2458 target is in line with the target of a confirmed $2304 double bottom, the 89 percent retracement from $2477, and projections of the waves up from $2304.2, $2304.7, $2327.4, and $2356. A test of support is anticipated before sustaining a close above $2458.

Nonetheless, because $2431 held today there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2402 first. This level is expected to hold because it is in line with the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2 and today’s midpoint. Taking out $2402 would call for a test of key near-term support at $2380.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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August natural gas fell to test the $2.31 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.448 as called for. This objective held, but most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $2.26. Therefore, the outlook for natural gas is bearish and a test of $2.26 is expected tomorrow. Closing below $2.26 will call for the $2.21 and $2.18 intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets to be challenged in the coming days.

Because the $2.268 swing low held, the move up from that level might still prove to be a period of consolidation before a larger test of resistance takes place. Should natural gas overcome the 38 percent retracement from $2.448 at $2.35 early tomorrow look for a test of the $2.40 smaller than target of the wave up from $2.268. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2.47 to be challenged. Settling above $2.47 would put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2.54 and $2.58.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil confirmed daily bearish MACD and Stochastic divergences at the $84.52 swing high and settled below the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44 today. The move down is likely a correction. Even so, prices also settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave primary wave down from $84.52. Therefore, this wave favors a test of at least its $80.8 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $80.8 will call for a test of the $79.9 intermediate (1.382) target, which is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44. A normal correction should hold $79.9. Settling below this would warn that the move up is failing and call for a more substantial test of support.

A small intra-day double bottom formed around $81.25, so there is a modest chance for a test of the $82.16 confirmation point. Overcoming this would call for $82.5 and likely $83.2. The $83.2 level is key resistance for the near term because it is in line with the double bottom’s target and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $84.52. Rising to $83.2 will also invalidate the wave down from $84.52 which projects to $80.8 and lower. Settling above $83.2 would imply that the corrective move down is complete.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

For the past few weeks, August gold has held the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 on a closing basis. Furthermore, a double bottom around $2304 formed, and today’s move up implies that a test of the $2383 confirmation point of the pattern will be tested. Settling above $2383 will warn that a the move down from $2477 is complete and open the way for a test of $2402 and higher in the coming days. The target of the double bottom is $2462. The connection to $2462 is made through $2412 and $2435.

That said, each time the move up has been poised to extend in recent weeks the move up has failed and prices have fallen to challenge recent lows. Today’s move up also held the $2373 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2304.7. Should prices fall and take out $2348 look for a test of key near-term support at $2328. settling below $2328 will put the near-term odds in favor of $2298 and lower.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August natural gas has settled below the psychologically important $2.50 level for the past few days after confirming a double top that formed around $3.21. The double top’s target is $2.00, but it is doubtful that prices will fall this low. Prices also challenged the $2.41 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $3.221 today. This is a potential stalling point and the move down is due for a correction. However, there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Prices are also trading below all major daily moving averages, daily momentum is declining, and daily trend indicators are bearish. Therefore, the outlook remains bearish.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the $2.37 smaller than (0.618) of the wave down from $3.590. This is also a potential stalling point, so even though there are no bullish patterns or signals, there is still a reasonable chance for a correction soon. Closing below $2.37 will open the way for $2.32 and lower in the coming days.

Should prices rise before taking out $2.41 look for initial resistance at $2.48. Closing above this would call for a test of $2.52 and possibly key near-term resistance at $2.590. Settling above $2.590 would call for an extended correction where the next major threshold is the 38 percent retracement from $3.221 at $2.72.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil settled above the $82.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $69.22 on Monday. This was bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks because this wave now favors an eventual test of its $88.5 equal to (1.00) target. Furthermore, prior major swing high have been overcome, prices are trading above all major daily moving averages, and daily trend indicators are bullish.

The near-term outlook is also bullish but today’s shooting star warns that a test of support might take place first. The daily Stochastic is overbought and the KaseCD and MACD are set up for daily bearish divergence. Therefore, caution is warranted and the near-term odds for a continued rise have been dampened.

Closing above the $83.9 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $72.44 will call for a test of the $84.7 equal to target of the wave up from $77.35. This then connects to the next major objective and confluence point at $86.4.

Any further move down will likely be a correction. Nonetheless, closing below $82.4 will complete the shooting star and settling below $81.5 will confirm the reversal pattern. Settling below $81.5 is doubtful based on the current intra-day wave down from $84.38 though. Such a move would put the near-term odds in favor of testing $80.5 and then the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44 at $79.8.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied and settled above the equal to (1.00) targets of the wave up from $2304.2 and $2310.9. The 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2310.9 held on a closing basis. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days and warns that the move down from $2477 might be complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2387. Settling above this will call for a key objective at $2405 to be challenged. The $2405 target is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and 62 percent retracement from $2477. Settling above $2405 will strongly suggest that the move down is complete and that gold is readopting a firm bullish outlook.

Nonetheless, there is still a reasonable chance for the move down to extend while $2370 holds on a closing basis. Should gold fall tomorrow and take out $2351 look for a test of key support at $2333. Settling below this will put the near-term odds back in favor of testing the $2309 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July natural gas settled below the crucial smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.161 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.518 at $2.76. This was quite bearish for the outlook because the move down now favors a test of the $2.52 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.161. This is also the confirmation point of a double top that formed around $3.16. Settling below the $2.70 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.159 will increase the odds for a test of $2.52 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching at least $2.70. Even so, should prices rise before taking out $2.70 look for today’s $2.82 midpoint to hold. Overcoming this will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.90.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil overcame the $80.11 swing high and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $85.27. The daily Kase Trend indicator is bullish, the 10-day DMI and ADX reflect increasing bullish sentiment, and prices are trading above all major daily moving averages. These factors confirm a bullish reversal and trend.

The move up is now poised to test the $81.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave up from $72.44. Closing above this will call for a longer-term bullish decision point at $82.4, which is the smaller than target of the wave up from $69.22, to be challenged.

The move up is due for a correction. Overbought daily KaseCD and Stochastic oscillators warn that such a move might take place soon. Even so, there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Furthermore, any move down will likely be a correction.

Should prices turn lower tomorrow, look for initial support at $79.9 and key near-term support at $79.0. Settling below $79.0 will call for a deeper test of support where $77.6 is most important.