Gold Price Forecast – August 8, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose to challenge resistance at $2465 today. This level is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2403.8 and the 50 percent retracement from $2522.5. The move up could still prove to be a correction given the wave down from $2537.7 favors a test of its $2386 equal to target. However, today’s move up confirmed Wednesday’s morning star. Therefore, tomorrow’s outlook is bullish.

The next major objective is $2477. This target is split between the 62 percent retracement from $2537.7 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2398.2. Settling above $2477 would suggest that the move down is complete and open the way for another test of the $2514 smaller than target of the wave up from $2349.8 and then the $2528 equal to target of the wave up from $2398.2.

Should the $2465 level continue to hold look for initial support at $2442. Falling below this would call for a test of $2428 and possibly key near-term support at $2405. Closing below $2405 would shift the near-term odds back in favor of fulfilling the $2386 equal to target of the wave down from $2537.7.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas continued to rise as called for in Tuesday’s update and confirmed Friday’s morning star setup and Monday’s hammer. Daily bullish KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic divergences were also confirmed. These patterns and signals call for a larger test of resistance and warn that a bullish reversal may be underway.

The move up is now poised to challenge a highly confluent and key target at $2.16. This objective is split around the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $1.882, the 62 percent retracement from $2.302, and the 21 percent retracement from $3.193. The $2.16 target also sits above the $2.149 swing high and is in line with the bullish threshold of the daily Kase Trend indicator. Settling above $2.16 might be a challenge without another test of support first but would open the way for $2.19, $2.24, and $2.28 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the move up could still prove to be another simple correction. This is because the waves down from $3.570 and $2.302 still favor a test of $1.83. Should natural gas turn lower before overcoming $2.16 look for support at $2.07 and $2.03. Falling below $2.03 will call for a test of key near-term support at $1.97.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold held the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $2537.7 at $2507 before pulling back. Prior intra-day swing lows have held and the wave formation up from $2349.8 is still in a position to test $2514 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $2349.8. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bullish. Settling above $2514 will call for targets at $2529, $2548, $2564, and an eventual push to fulfill this wave’s $2586 equal to (1.00) target.

That said, the pullback from $2506.6 warns that a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2398.2 at $2465 might take place first. Taking out $2465 would call for the 62 percent retracement at $2440 and possibly a test of key near-term support at $2421. The $2421 level is the smaller than target of the wave down from $2537.7. Therefore, settling below this would shift the odds in favor of an eventual test of this wave’s $2369 equal to target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

September natural gas retains a bearish outlook and is poised to challenge the psychologically important $2.00 level and likely a confluent $1.97 objective within the next day or so. The $1.97 objective is the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave down from $3.193, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.302, and the equal to (1.00) target of the most recent wave down from $2.149. This is another potential stalling point given its confluence and proximity to the $2.00 level. However, any move up from $1.97 will likely be a correction without a significant and lasting bullish shift in the underlying fundamentals.

Settling below $1.97 will open the way for $1.90 and eventually the next major objective at $1.83. The $1.83 objective is the equal to target of the waves down from $2.302 and $3.570. This objective is also near the continuation chart’s recent $1.856 swing low, which was in line with the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $1.481.

Should natural gas prices rise before taking out $2.00 look for initial resistance at $2.07 and then $2.12. The $2.12 level is the smaller than target of the current wave up from $1.991. Overcoming this would call for a test of the equal to target and key near-term resistance at $2.18. The $2.18 level is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2.302, so settling above this would call for a more substantial test of resistance before the move down extends.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The outlook for WTI crude oil is bearish for the coming weeks. The September contract settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.36 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23 on Monday. This implies that the move up from $72.23 is complete and the wave down from $84.36 now favors an eventual test of its $71.5 equal to (1.00) target.

Today, prices fell to challenge the $74.7 smaller than target of the wave down from $82.27 and the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23. The $74.7 target held on a closing basis, so there is a modest chance for a test of resistance tomorrow. However, there are no bullish patterns or confirmed technical signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of $74.3, a close below which will call for $73.7, $73.2, and the next confluent target at $72.3 in the coming days.

Should prices rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $75.5 and then $76.0. The $76.0 level is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near term is $76.6. This threshold is in line with the 21 percent retracement from $83.58 and the 200-day moving average. Settling above $76.6 would shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $77.0 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2488.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2 today. Today’s move down also caused the daily Kase Trend indicator to become bearish and for the 10-day DMI to trigger a bearish crossover. Daily bearish KasePO and RSI divergences were also confirmed at the $2488.4 swing high and there has been good follow-through after last week’s formation of a shooting star.

The move down is now poised to reach the $2328 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2488.4. Settling below this will call for another test of the $2304 level, a close below which would call for the $2290 intermediate (1.382) target and eventually the $2263 larger than (1.618) target. The $2263 objective is also a major retracement of the moves up from $1900.1 and $2306.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching $2328. Nonetheless, should gold rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $2372 to hold. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2488.4 at $2402 to be challenged.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $3.221 at $2.27 before stalling and pulling back for the past couple of days. The move down from $2.270 challenged but settled above the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.015 at $2.11 today.

This is a tight call for the near term because daily trend indicators remain bearish, the downtrend is intact, and the wave formation calls for a test of $1.97 and lower. However, daily bullish KaseCD and MACD divergences confirmed at the $2.015 swing low and the fact that $2.11 held on a closing basis warn that a larger test of resistance might still take place in the coming days.

Given the close above $2.11 was nominal, prices held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.270 at $2.17, and natural gas is falling back toward $2.11 late this afternoon the near-term outlook leans bearish. A test of the $2.06 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.270 is expected. Closing below this will call for a test of the $2.00 equal to (1.00) target and then the next major objective at $1.97.

That said, should prices rally again and overcome $2.17 look for a test of $2.21 and possibly key near-term resistance at $2.26. The $2.26 level is the smaller than target of the wave up from $2.015. Settling above $2.26 will call for natural gas to rise and test at least this wave’s $2.36 equal to target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil fell to challenge the 200-day moving average and 62 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23. This support at $76.6 held on a closing basis, but the subsequent move up from $76.40 is likely a simple correction. Another test of $76.6 is anticipated. Taking out $76.6 will call for a test of the $76.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.36. Settling below $76.1 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days, and likely the next few weeks, opening the way for $75.2 and lower.

There are no bullish patterns or signals on the daily chart that call for a reversal. The $76.6 and $76.1 targets are crucial though and this is an area where the move down could stall. Should WTI crude oil overcome initial resistance at $77.7 look for a test of $78.6 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.1. The $79.1 level is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $83.58. Therefore, settling above this would warn that the move down is failing.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after the August contract overcame the $2477 swing high. However, resistance at $2490 has held and the pullback from $2488 will likely test $2421 tomorrow. A normal correction of the move up from $2304.2 should hold $2421 because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2488.4 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2. Settling below $2421 would call for an extended test of support with objectives at $2392 and $2375.

Nevertheless, the trend remains bullish and the pullback from $2488.4 will likely prove to be a correction. Overcoming the $2478.5 swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2488.4 that projects to $2421 and $2392. This will also call for another attempt to overcome key near-term resistance at $2490.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas has continued to decline toward the psychologically important $2.00 level as called for. Today’s decline reflects a resurgence in bearish sentiment. The $2.03 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2.448 held, but the larger and more important waves down from $3.590 and $3.221 call for a continued decline.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the $2.00 target of a confirmed $3.21 double top and likely the $1.97 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave down from $3.221. This is also the smaller than target of the wave down from $3.027. The $1.97 objective is a potential stalling point. However, any move will likely be a correction because the wave down from $3.590 favors an eventual test of its $1.84 equal to (1.00) target.

The daily Stochastic has been oversold for a few weeks and the RSI entered oversold territory today. A test of resistance will probably take place soon, but no bullish patterns or confirmed signals call for such a move. Even so, should prices rise before taking out $2.00 look for initial resistance at today’s $2.11 midpoint. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at today’s $2.18 open.