Crude Oil Price Forecast – September 10, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s move down accelerated again today and settled below a highly confluent and important $66.5 target. The move down is now poised to test $64.6 and then the next major target at $63.7. The $63.7 objective is another bearish decision point because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from the $84.32 October contract high and the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $83.45. Once prices fall to $63.7 the daily RSI and KasePO should be oversold. Therefore, $63.7 is a target from which a solid test of resistance could take place. Given the current wave structure, a sustained close below $63.7 would be quite bearish for the coming months because the next major target is $55.9.

The move down is due for a correction but there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. The small move up at the end of today was likely profit-taking but suggests that a test of $66.7 and possibly today’s $67.4 midpoint might take place first. The $67.4 level is expected to hold. Key resistance for tomorrow is in line with today’s open at $68.8.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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December gold’s lackluster follow-through after Wednesday’s decline was bullish for the near-term outlook. Gold is poised to challenge a highly confluent and key target at $2570 again. Settling above $2570 will open the way for the $2586 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2349.8 to finally be fulfilled.

That said, the $2570 target has been resilient in recent weeks and each time gold has approached this objective prices have pulled back. The potential for a second straight weekly bearish doji also warns that the move up may be exhausted. Should gold turn lower and take out the $2525 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2570.4 look for a test of key near-term support at $2500.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

October natural gas recaptured a bearish outlook for the near-term after settling below the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $1.991 and negating a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. The 89 percent retracement at $2.04 has held though, and today’s long-legged doji warns that another test of resistance might take place before prices challenge $1.99 and lower.

The wave down from $2.425 calls for a test of its $1.99 equal to (1.00) target after prices settled below the $2.15 smaller than (0.618) target on Monday. Closing below $2.04 will significantly increase the odds for a test of $1.99, which is in line with the $1.991 contract low. Settling below $1.99 may be a challenge given its proximity to the psychologically important $2.00 level but would open the way for the $1.88 equal to target of the wave down from $3.648 to finally be fulfilled.

Nonetheless, support at $2.04 has been resilient for the past two days. Furthermore, today’s long-legged doji and the intra-day wave up from $2.021 suggest a test of $2.14 and even $2.18 might take place first. The $2.18 level is key resistance for the near-term because it is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.421. Settling above $2.14 would warn that the move down is failing and call for tests of $2.23 and a near-term bullish decision point at $2.28 that connects to $2.45 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a wide and indecisive range. Prices rallied on Monday and settled above the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $78.54 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $70.88. This suggests that a test of this wave’s $79.1 equal to (1.00) target will take place. Such a move would put WTI above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.62, which would also be bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks.

However, today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 200-day moving average was bearish for the near term. This move also suggest that prices will remain bound within the wide range between $71.2 and $79.1 while traders wait on more fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical information.

Key near-term support at $75.2 held, but a test of this level is expected early tomorrow. Settling below $75.2 will call for $74.5, $73.8, and possibly a test of the $73.2 smaller than target of the wave down from $78.54 in the coming days. Closing below $73.2 would confirm a bearish outlook and open the way for another attempt to close below a long-term bearish decision point at $71.2.

That said, the pullback from $77.60 might still prove to be a simple correction should $75.2 hold. Overcoming $76.8 will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $77.8. Settling above $77.8 will put the near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $78.7 and likely $79.1.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold pulled back after testing and holding major resistance at $2570. The pullback is likely a correction and held the $2515 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2570.4 on a closing basis today. The $2515 level is also in line with the completion point of daily bearish hanging man and shooting star patterns that formed Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Nevertheless, today’s decline confirmed bearish daily RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences and a daily KasePO PeakOut (overbought) signal. Therefore, the near-term outlook is bearish for gold and a test of $2499 and likely $2487 will take place within the next day or so. For the move up to retain a reasonable chance at extending again in the coming days $2487 must hold. Closing below $2487 will take out the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2570.4, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and confirm the daily bearish candlestick patterns.

Should gold rally and overcome $2538 look for a test of the $2557.3 corrective swing high of the wave down from $2570.4. Overcoming $2557 will invalidate this wave and negate the projections to $2499 and lower. Such a move would also call for another test and attempt to close above the $2570 threshold.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

A sustainable bullish reversal is likely underway for natural gas. Confirmed weekly bullish KasePO, RSI, and MACD divergence signals and a bullish weekly KCDpeak (oversold signal) call for a much more substantial test of resistance. Such a move will be confirmed by a close above the $2.30 neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The target of the inverted head and shoulders pattern is $2.72. This objective is also in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $1.882 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.193.

For the outlook in the coming days, closing above the $2.24 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.097 will call for a test of this wave’s equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the $2.30 neckline. Settling above $2.30 will open the way for a highly confluent $2.37 target that connects to $2.42 and higher.

That said, there is still potential for the right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders pattern to extend. The wave down from $2.301 took out its $2.15 smaller than target today. This suggests that this wave will test its $2.07 equal to target before prices rise to challenge the $2.30 neckline. The $2.07 level is expected to hold. Closing below this will warn that the move up is failing and call for a test of key support at $2.04. The right shoulder would remain intact should $2.04 hold. Settling below this would negate the pattern and shift the odds in favor of natural gas falling to $2.00 and lower.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $70.88 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $78.54. This was bearish for the outlook because the close below the 62 percent retracement implies that the move up from $70.88 is a completed correction and has increased the likelihood that a long-term bearish decision point at $71.2 will be tested again.

The 78 percent retracement and larger than (1.618) target around $72.6 were tested and held on a closing basis today. Another test of $72.6 is expected within the next day or so. Closing below $72.6 will call for a minor target at $71.8 that connects to the long-term bearish decision point at $71.2. The $71.2 objective is most important because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from the $84.32 October contract high, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $83.45, the smaller than target of the wave down from $82.62, and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.38. A sustained close below $71.2 will open the potential for a decline into the mid-to-low $60s in the coming months.

Nevertheless, the confluence of $72.6 makes this a level from which a test of resistance might take place before the move down extends and tests $71.2. Today’s long upper and lower candlestick shadows also reflect a bit of near-term uncertainty. A further move up from $72.54 will likely be a correction and is expected to hold key near-term resistance at $74.8. Overcoming $74.2 will call for a test of $74.8. Settling above $74.8 would warn that the move down from $78.54 is failing.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold has been trading in a range between approximately $2400 and $2430 since mid-July. Prices are trading near the top of the range and a break higher out of the range is ultimately expected.

Gold will need to close above key resistance at $2530 to confirm that a break higher is finally underway. Such a move will open the way for $2560 and $2581. Overcoming the $2514 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8 will clear the way for a test of $2530 within the next few days.

The pullback from $2519.7 looks like a correction based on today’s trading. However, the move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2519.7 and should test the $2464 equal to (1.00) target first. The move up from $2469.2 also held the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2519.7 at $2500.

Closing below $2464 now looks as though it will be a challenge but would call for a test of key near-term support at $2447. This is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2519.7, the smaller than target of the wave down from $2522.5, and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2403.8. Settling below this would put the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to test the $2401 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2522.5.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

September natural gas continues to show signs of a bullish recovery. A weekly bullish KCDpeak (oversold signal) and weekly bullish KasePO, RSI, and MACD divergences suggest a bottom has been made. The 10-day DMI and daily Kase Trend indicators are also bullish. Furthermore, today’s move up shook off a series of bearish daily candlesticks that had formed during the past several days.

The move up is struggling to settle above the 89 percent retracement from $2.302 and equal to (1.00) target of the subwave up from $1.882 at $2.27. However, today’s rise has put natural gas in a position to re-challenge and overcome $2.27 within the next day or so. Closing above $2.27 will call for a minor target at $2.33 and then a test of the next major objective at $2.37. The $2.37 objective is in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the subwave up from $1.882, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1.882, and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.193. Settling above $2.37 for a few days will provide more evidence that a sustainable bullish reversal is underway.

That said, natural gas bulls are not completely out of the woods yet. The resilience of $2.27 resistance and late pullback from $2.276 warns that another test of support might take place. Taking out $2.16 will call for a test of key near-term support at $2.13. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.882. The $2.13 level is also in line with the $2.134 corrective swing low of the primary wave up from $1.882 which projects to $2.37 and higher. Closing below $2.13 will not confirm that the move up has failed but would call for $2.08 and then a test of a bearish decision point at $2.02.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rallied on Monday and overcame the $78.88 swing high and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $83.58 and the bullish threshold of the daily Kase Trend indicator. This was bullish for the outlook of WTI crude oil in the coming weeks. However, the $80.2 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $71.67 held and a small intra-day double top formed around $80.16. The double top was confirmed and prices settled below the pattern’s $78.5 target, Monday’s midpoint, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $71.67 on Tuesday.

The pullback from $80.16 is likely a correction. However, the wave down from $80.16 is poised to test its $77.8 XC (2.764) projection early Wednesday. Falling below $77.8 will call for a test of key support at $76.9. This is in line with Monday’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.67. Based on the current wave formation down from $80.16, settling below $76.9 is doubtful. Such a move would warn that the move up is failing again.

Should $77.8 hold and prices rise above Tuesday’s $79.0 midpoint, which is also currently the 38 percent retracement from $80.16, look for another test of $80.2. Closing above $80.2 will confirm a bullish outlook for the coming days and clear the way for the $81.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $69.16 to be challenged.