Crude Oil Price Forecast – September 24, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

November WTI crude oil briefly rose above the lower trend line of a coil pattern that broke lower on September 3. Prices settled below this trend line but closed above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59. This target at $71.5 had held on a closing basis for a few days. This was bullish for the outlook and suggests that another test of the coil’s lower trend line at $72.3 will take place tomorrow. There is also a good chance for a test of $72.8, which sits just above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.45.

The $72.8 target is most important because this objective is in line with the lower trend line of a wedge pattern on the continuation chart that broke lower during the week ended September 6. A sustained close above $72.8 will confirm that a bullish reversal is underway.

Settling above $72.8 will also call for a test of the $73.6 confirmation point of a weekly long-legged doji on the continuation chart. The $73.6 target is also November’s 50 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59.

That said, should $72.8 continue to hold there is still a modest chance that the move up is a corrective throwback on the continuation chart. In this scenario, settling below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $69.4 would warn that the move up is failing and put the near-term odds in favor of testing the respective 50 and 62 percent retracements at $68.5 and $67.6.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has recovered after briefly settling below a highly confluent and key wave projection and retracement level at $66.5 on September 10. The close below $66.5 only lasted a day and the subsequent move up from $65.27 has been quite aggressive. A weekly long-legged doji, daily bullish RSI divergence, and daily Stochastic oversold signal suggest a bullish reversal might be underway. However, the challenge is that the move up might be a throwback to test the lower trend line of a coil pattern on the October chart and wedge pattern on the continuation chart, both of which broke lower on September 3.

CLV24 Daily Chart with Coil

For the move down to extend again WTI crude oil must hold the lower trend lines of these patterns, which currently center around $72.5. The $72.5 is also the highest that the first intra-day wave up from $65.27 projects and sits just above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $83.45. Settling above $72.5 for a few days and extending to close above the 62 percent retracement from $78.54 at $73.5 would imply that the move down is complete.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Continuation Chart with Wedge

Nevertheless, closing below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $65.27, which is currently $67.8 (and will be $68.0 should prices rise to and hold $72.5), would suggest that the move up from $65.27 was a throwback and a correction of the downtrend. For the near term, key support is the 38 percent retracement at $69.4. Closing below this tomorrow would put the odds in favor of testing $67.8 in the coming days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold finally broke higher out of a bullish wedge after forming a shortfall within the pattern last Friday. Gold also settled above an important area of resistance between $2565 and $2570. The $2586 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2349.8 was also tested and held on a closing basis. Even so, today’s break higher out of the wedge was bullish for the outlook in the coming days and weeks.

The move up is now poised to reach another confluent objective at $2605. This is the most confluent target on the chart and might prove to be a temporary stalling point. Closing above $2605 will clear the way for a push to $2630 and higher.

Should a throwback occur after testing and holding $2586 look for the upper trend line of the wedge at $2554 to hold. A throwback to test the breakout point of a bullish pattern is somewhat common. Taking out $2554 would warn of a false breakout. Settling below $2535 would confirm this is the case and put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2521 and $2497 in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas has entered a period of consolidation in recent weeks that will likely lead to an eventual break higher. Today, the prompt month October contract tested and held a key level at $2.30 on a closing basis. This sits just above the smaller than (0.618) target of the waves up from $1.991 and $2.021 and is in line with the $2.301 confirmation point of a $1.856 double bottom on the continuation chart. Another test of $2.30 is anticipated within the next couple of days. Settling above $2.30 will open the way for a push to challenge $2.39 and likely $2.46.

Nevertheless, resistance around $2.30 has been resilient for the past few days. The late pullback from today’s $2.325 high warns that natural gas will continue to consolidate as traders wait for more evidence of bullish fundamentals and sentiment. A simple test of support should hold the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.021 at $2.21. Falling below this will call for an attempt to take out key near-term support and the 62 percent retracement at $2.14. Settling below $2.14 would put the near-term odds in favor of testing the $2.08 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.421.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s move down accelerated again today and settled below a highly confluent and important $66.5 target. The move down is now poised to test $64.6 and then the next major target at $63.7. The $63.7 objective is another bearish decision point because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from the $84.32 October contract high and the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $83.45. Once prices fall to $63.7 the daily RSI and KasePO should be oversold. Therefore, $63.7 is a target from which a solid test of resistance could take place. Given the current wave structure, a sustained close below $63.7 would be quite bearish for the coming months because the next major target is $55.9.

The move down is due for a correction but there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. The small move up at the end of today was likely profit-taking but suggests that a test of $66.7 and possibly today’s $67.4 midpoint might take place first. The $67.4 level is expected to hold. Key resistance for tomorrow is in line with today’s open at $68.8.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold’s lackluster follow-through after Wednesday’s decline was bullish for the near-term outlook. Gold is poised to challenge a highly confluent and key target at $2570 again. Settling above $2570 will open the way for the $2586 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2349.8 to finally be fulfilled.

That said, the $2570 target has been resilient in recent weeks and each time gold has approached this objective prices have pulled back. The potential for a second straight weekly bearish doji also warns that the move up may be exhausted. Should gold turn lower and take out the $2525 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2570.4 look for a test of key near-term support at $2500.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

October natural gas recaptured a bearish outlook for the near-term after settling below the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $1.991 and negating a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. The 89 percent retracement at $2.04 has held though, and today’s long-legged doji warns that another test of resistance might take place before prices challenge $1.99 and lower.

The wave down from $2.425 calls for a test of its $1.99 equal to (1.00) target after prices settled below the $2.15 smaller than (0.618) target on Monday. Closing below $2.04 will significantly increase the odds for a test of $1.99, which is in line with the $1.991 contract low. Settling below $1.99 may be a challenge given its proximity to the psychologically important $2.00 level but would open the way for the $1.88 equal to target of the wave down from $3.648 to finally be fulfilled.

Nonetheless, support at $2.04 has been resilient for the past two days. Furthermore, today’s long-legged doji and the intra-day wave up from $2.021 suggest a test of $2.14 and even $2.18 might take place first. The $2.18 level is key resistance for the near-term because it is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.421. Settling above $2.14 would warn that the move down is failing and call for tests of $2.23 and a near-term bullish decision point at $2.28 that connects to $2.45 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a wide and indecisive range. Prices rallied on Monday and settled above the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $78.54 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $70.88. This suggests that a test of this wave’s $79.1 equal to (1.00) target will take place. Such a move would put WTI above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.62, which would also be bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks.

However, today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 200-day moving average was bearish for the near term. This move also suggest that prices will remain bound within the wide range between $71.2 and $79.1 while traders wait on more fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical information.

Key near-term support at $75.2 held, but a test of this level is expected early tomorrow. Settling below $75.2 will call for $74.5, $73.8, and possibly a test of the $73.2 smaller than target of the wave down from $78.54 in the coming days. Closing below $73.2 would confirm a bearish outlook and open the way for another attempt to close below a long-term bearish decision point at $71.2.

That said, the pullback from $77.60 might still prove to be a simple correction should $75.2 hold. Overcoming $76.8 will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $77.8. Settling above $77.8 will put the near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $78.7 and likely $79.1.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold pulled back after testing and holding major resistance at $2570. The pullback is likely a correction and held the $2515 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2570.4 on a closing basis today. The $2515 level is also in line with the completion point of daily bearish hanging man and shooting star patterns that formed Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Nevertheless, today’s decline confirmed bearish daily RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences and a daily KasePO PeakOut (overbought) signal. Therefore, the near-term outlook is bearish for gold and a test of $2499 and likely $2487 will take place within the next day or so. For the move up to retain a reasonable chance at extending again in the coming days $2487 must hold. Closing below $2487 will take out the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2570.4, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and confirm the daily bearish candlestick patterns.

Should gold rally and overcome $2538 look for a test of the $2557.3 corrective swing high of the wave down from $2570.4. Overcoming $2557 will invalidate this wave and negate the projections to $2499 and lower. Such a move would also call for another test and attempt to close above the $2570 threshold.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

A sustainable bullish reversal is likely underway for natural gas. Confirmed weekly bullish KasePO, RSI, and MACD divergence signals and a bullish weekly KCDpeak (oversold signal) call for a much more substantial test of resistance. Such a move will be confirmed by a close above the $2.30 neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The target of the inverted head and shoulders pattern is $2.72. This objective is also in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $1.882 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.193.

For the outlook in the coming days, closing above the $2.24 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.097 will call for a test of this wave’s equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the $2.30 neckline. Settling above $2.30 will open the way for a highly confluent $2.37 target that connects to $2.42 and higher.

That said, there is still potential for the right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders pattern to extend. The wave down from $2.301 took out its $2.15 smaller than target today. This suggests that this wave will test its $2.07 equal to target before prices rise to challenge the $2.30 neckline. The $2.07 level is expected to hold. Closing below this will warn that the move up is failing and call for a test of key support at $2.04. The right shoulder would remain intact should $2.04 hold. Settling below this would negate the pattern and shift the odds in favor of natural gas falling to $2.00 and lower.