Crude Oil Price Forecast – November 5, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose as expected today and overcame the $72.34 swing high, invalidating a few of the waves down from $77.7 and $75.45 that had called for a continued decline. Prices also overcame the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $66.72 and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $77.7 at $72.2. This objective held on a closing basis but prices have risen back to $72.2 late this afternoon.

The move up is now poised to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.7 at $73.5 and then the $74.2 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $66.72. Overcoming a minor target at $72.8 will clear the way for tests of $73.5 and $74.2. The $74.2 objective is crucial because it is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave up from $65.99 and the 200-day moving average. Settling above $74.2 should initially be a challenge but would confirm a bullish outlook and call for the $75.2 smaller than target of the new primary wave up from $64.16 to be challenged.

The challenge for WTI crude oil is that each time it has approached a level that would indicate prices will move much higher or lower in recent months a reversal has taken place. This proved to be true at the $67.3 level and could prove to be the case again at $74.2.

Also, because $72.2 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a test of support before rising to challenge $73.5 and $74.2. Taking out $70.9 will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.72 at $70.4. A simple correction should hold $70.4. Falling below this would call for key support at $68.9 to be challenged. This level is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.72 and a decline to $68.9 would take out the $69.32 corrective swing low of the wave up from $66.72 that makes the connection to $74.2 as the equal to target.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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Gold’s move up has been due for a solid test of support for some time now. Weekly momentum has been overbought and daily momentum moved back into overbought territory on the RSI earlier in the week. The bullish trend is intact, but today’s decline and confirmation of bearish daily MACD and RSI divergences suggest that a correction might finally be underway.

The challenge is that a similar pattern that formed on October 23 failed to lead to a meaningful correction.

Regardless, today’s move down was bearish for the near-term outlook, and a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2732 is expected. Closing below this will call for the 50 percent retracement from $2618.8 and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2710 to be challenged. This is the most important target because closing below $2710 will take out the 20-day moving average and shift the Kase Trend indicator to bearish (which it has not been since August 16).

That said, prices rose a bit late this afternoon. Should gold overcome today’s $2774 midpoint look for another test of key resistance at $2802. Settling above $2802 will negate the bearish patterns and signals that formed today and put the near-term odds back in favor of gold rising to $2823 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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December natural gas settled a penny lower today and is still in a position to work its way lower in the coming days. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.712 at $2.80 has been resilient and held on a closing basis for the past few days. Another test of $2.80 is expected tomorrow. Falling below this will call for the $2.77 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.919. This wave then connects to $2.72 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $2.72 objective is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave down from $3.101. Settling below $2.72 will clear the way for a move below the $2.712 swing low to challenge the $2.67 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.406.

Nevertheless, a bullish KasePO divergence on the $0.03 Kase Bar chart and the wave up from $2.770 warn that a test of $2.89 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2.89 will call for key near-term resistance at $2.94 to be challenged. Settling above $2.94 would put the near-term odds in favor of challenging the 62 percent retracement from $3.101 at $2.98 and then the $3.01 smaller than target of the wave up from $2.712.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil gapped lower from $69.96 on Monday and settled below the $67.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.95 on Tuesday. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $64.16 has held on a closing basis for the past two days. Even so, the gap down and close below $67.3 reflect bearish sentiment for the coming days and perhaps weeks.

The move down is now poised to test the $66.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $77.7. This is also the smaller than target of the compound wave $77.7 – $68.17 – $72.34. Settling below $66.3 will open the way for a test of $66.6 and then the $64.6 larger than (1.618) target of the first wave down from $77.7.

There are no daily bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Nonetheless, the daily Stochastic is nearing oversold territory and a confirmed bullish KasePO divergence and long warning signal on the $0.35 intra-day Kase Bar chart warn that a test of $68.3 might take place first. Overcoming $68.3 would call for a test of $69.0, which is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near term is the top of Monday’s gap down on the daily chart at $70.0. Settling above $70.0 would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas rallied late this afternoon to challenge the $2.42 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.210 and the $2.44 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2.258. Weak daily bullish KasePO PeakOut and RSI oversold signals suggest a bullish reversal, or at least a solid test of resistance, is underway. Tomorrow, look for a test of $2.48 and possibly a key objective at $2.53. Settling above $2.53 will reflect a bullish shift in sentiment and provide more substantial evidence that a reversal will continue to unfold.

That said, until this afternoon’s late rally, the move up from $2.210 had been shallow and choppy. This suggests that the move up may still be a simple correction and that this afternoon’s rally could be a bull trap before the move down extends. Even so, falling to a new low has become doubtful within the next few days and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.210 at $2.35 is expected to hold. Falling below this will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $2.30 and possibly key support at $2.26. Taking out $2.26 (more specifically, the $2.258 swing low) will invalidate the wave up from $2.210 which projects to $2.48 and $2.53. In this case, look for prices to fall to $2.21 and lower.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continued to rise on Tuesday as called for in Monday’s update and settled above the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The 38 percent retracement of the decline from $77.7 at $71.8 held on a closing basis. Even so, the move up during the past two days reflects a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and warns that another significant test of resistance is underway.

The intra-day wave formation up from $68.17 calls for a test of 72.4 and possibly the 50 percent retracement at $72.9. Settling above $72.9 will call for major resistance at $74.2 to be challenged in the coming days. This is the 62 percent retracement and 200-day moving average. Settling above $74.2 will imply that the move down from $77.7 is complete.

That said, a normal correction will continue to hold $71.8. A bearish KasePO divergence and short warning entry signal on the $0.35 Kase Bar chart also warn that the move up from $68.17 might be complete. However, to confirm this, prices will have to settle below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $68.17 at $69.7.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose above the $2708.7 high and finally settled above the $2702 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8. The move up is now poised to challenge the $2720 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2618.8 tomorrow. Settling above $2720 will call for confluent wave projections at $2732, $2746, and $2760 to be challenged in the coming days.

There are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall before reaching at least $2720 and likely $2732. Even so, now that prices have risen to a new high there is potential for daily bearish divergences on the KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic momentum oscillators. However, to confirm any of these divergence signals both price and momentum must form swing highs before momentum rises to a new high too.

Should gold turn lower without warning look for initial support at $2690. Falling below this will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2618.8 at $2677. This level is expected to hold. Key support for the outlook in the coming days is the 62 percent retracement at $2655. Settling below this will call for gold to take out the $2654.4 swing low, thus invalidating the recent wave up from $2618.8 that projects to $2720 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas shook off Tuesday’s long-legged doji and took out the $2.439 swing low. This negated a double bottom that had formed between the $2.450 and $2.439 swing lows. Prices also settled below the $2.46 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.019 and the $2.37 smaller than target of the wave down from $2.727. These waves now call for a test of $2.30 and $2.27. The $2.27 objective is also the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.988. The outlook is bearish heading into tomorrow and the move down should reach at least $2.30 within the next day or so. Such a move will cause November to take out its $2.345 contract low.

The area of support between $2.27 and $2.30 is highly confluent though and a probable stalling point. The daily KaseCD and RSI are oversold. There are also oversold KasePO and RSI oscillators on the $0.025 Kase Bar chart. These momentum oscillators and the MACD are also set up for bullish divergence. Furthermore, $2.30 is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.856 on the continuation chart. Therefore, a solid test of resistance is anticipated once $2.27 is met and before closing below $2.30.

Should November natural gas rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at today’s $2.43 midpoint. This is in line with the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $2.727. Overcoming $2.43 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.50. The $2.50 level is near today’s open, the 21 percent retracement from $3.019, and the 38 percent retracement from $2.727. Settling above $2.50 would shift the near-term odds in favor of challenging $2.55 and another key level at $2.60 in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil fell to test the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $69.9 and nearly fulfilled the $69.3 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $78.46. Both targets held on a closing basis and the move up from $69.71 formed a wave that should challenge at least $71.2 and possibly its $72.1 larger than (1.618) target first.

The move up is likely a correction though. The near-term outlook remains bearish and another test of $69.9 and likely $69.3 is expected. Settling below $69.3 will confirm a bearish outlook and strongly suggests that the move up from $64.61 is complete. This will also clear open the way for a test of $67.7 and then the $66.8 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $78.46 in the coming days.

That said, oversold RSI and KasePO PeakOut signals on the $0.65 Kase Bar chart warn that the test of resistance could lead to a bullish reversal. Overcoming $72.1 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $73.1. A normal correction of the move down will hold $73.1 because this is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.46. Closing above this would shift the near-term odds in favor of challenging $73.9 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $75.1.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to challenge the 20-day moving average after settling below a confluent and important target at $2632 on Wednesday. The wave down from $2708.7 still favors a test of its $2607 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $2594 larger than (1.618) target in the coming days. Taking out $2630 tomorrow will clear the way for a test of at least $2607.

Nevertheless, today’s bullish piercing pattern warns that the corrective move down might be complete. Given this afternoon’s post-settlement rise, there is also a good chance for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2708.7 at $2653 first. A normal correction will hold $2563. Overcoming this would call for a test of key resistance and the 62 percent retracement at $2674. Settling above $2674 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2700 again.