Crude Oil Price Forecast – October 22, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continued to rise on Tuesday as called for in Monday’s update and settled above the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The 38 percent retracement of the decline from $77.7 at $71.8 held on a closing basis. Even so, the move up during the past two days reflects a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and warns that another significant test of resistance is underway.

The intra-day wave formation up from $68.17 calls for a test of 72.4 and possibly the 50 percent retracement at $72.9. Settling above $72.9 will call for major resistance at $74.2 to be challenged in the coming days. This is the 62 percent retracement and 200-day moving average. Settling above $74.2 will imply that the move down from $77.7 is complete.

That said, a normal correction will continue to hold $71.8. A bearish KasePO divergence and short warning entry signal on the $0.35 Kase Bar chart also warn that the move up from $68.17 might be complete. However, to confirm this, prices will have to settle below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $68.17 at $69.7.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose above the $2708.7 high and finally settled above the $2702 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8. The move up is now poised to challenge the $2720 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2618.8 tomorrow. Settling above $2720 will call for confluent wave projections at $2732, $2746, and $2760 to be challenged in the coming days.

There are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall before reaching at least $2720 and likely $2732. Even so, now that prices have risen to a new high there is potential for daily bearish divergences on the KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic momentum oscillators. However, to confirm any of these divergence signals both price and momentum must form swing highs before momentum rises to a new high too.

Should gold turn lower without warning look for initial support at $2690. Falling below this will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2618.8 at $2677. This level is expected to hold. Key support for the outlook in the coming days is the 62 percent retracement at $2655. Settling below this will call for gold to take out the $2654.4 swing low, thus invalidating the recent wave up from $2618.8 that projects to $2720 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas shook off Tuesday’s long-legged doji and took out the $2.439 swing low. This negated a double bottom that had formed between the $2.450 and $2.439 swing lows. Prices also settled below the $2.46 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.019 and the $2.37 smaller than target of the wave down from $2.727. These waves now call for a test of $2.30 and $2.27. The $2.27 objective is also the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.988. The outlook is bearish heading into tomorrow and the move down should reach at least $2.30 within the next day or so. Such a move will cause November to take out its $2.345 contract low.

The area of support between $2.27 and $2.30 is highly confluent though and a probable stalling point. The daily KaseCD and RSI are oversold. There are also oversold KasePO and RSI oscillators on the $0.025 Kase Bar chart. These momentum oscillators and the MACD are also set up for bullish divergence. Furthermore, $2.30 is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.856 on the continuation chart. Therefore, a solid test of resistance is anticipated once $2.27 is met and before closing below $2.30.

Should November natural gas rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at today’s $2.43 midpoint. This is in line with the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $2.727. Overcoming $2.43 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.50. The $2.50 level is near today’s open, the 21 percent retracement from $3.019, and the 38 percent retracement from $2.727. Settling above $2.50 would shift the near-term odds in favor of challenging $2.55 and another key level at $2.60 in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil fell to test the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $69.9 and nearly fulfilled the $69.3 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $78.46. Both targets held on a closing basis and the move up from $69.71 formed a wave that should challenge at least $71.2 and possibly its $72.1 larger than (1.618) target first.

The move up is likely a correction though. The near-term outlook remains bearish and another test of $69.9 and likely $69.3 is expected. Settling below $69.3 will confirm a bearish outlook and strongly suggests that the move up from $64.61 is complete. This will also clear open the way for a test of $67.7 and then the $66.8 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $78.46 in the coming days.

That said, oversold RSI and KasePO PeakOut signals on the $0.65 Kase Bar chart warn that the test of resistance could lead to a bullish reversal. Overcoming $72.1 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $73.1. A normal correction of the move down will hold $73.1 because this is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.46. Closing above this would shift the near-term odds in favor of challenging $73.9 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $75.1.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to challenge the 20-day moving average after settling below a confluent and important target at $2632 on Wednesday. The wave down from $2708.7 still favors a test of its $2607 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $2594 larger than (1.618) target in the coming days. Taking out $2630 tomorrow will clear the way for a test of at least $2607.

Nevertheless, today’s bullish piercing pattern warns that the corrective move down might be complete. Given this afternoon’s post-settlement rise, there is also a good chance for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2708.7 at $2653 first. A normal correction will hold $2563. Overcoming this would call for a test of key resistance and the 62 percent retracement at $2674. Settling above $2674 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2700 again.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas closed below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.439 and the 50-day moving average today. This strongly suggests that November’s move up from $2.439 is complete. The move down is now poised to test a confluent but relatively minor target at $2.61 and then an important objective at $2.58. The $2.58 target is in line with the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.439 and is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.856 on the continuation chart. A normal correction of the move up from $1.856 on the continuation chart will hold $2.58. Settling below this will clear the way for tests of $2.52 and $2.46 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns, signals, or setups that call for the move down to stall. Even so, should prices rise tomorrow look for resistance at today’s $2.68 midpoint and the $2.71 open. Key resistance for the near-term outlook is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.019 at $2.78.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has been on a wild ride during the past few weeks. Prices rallied and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $64.61 on Monday. The November contract also overcame an important $77.45 swing high early Tuesday. These factors were bullish for the outlook and implied that WTI crude oil was adopting a much firmer bullish outlook.

However, Tuesday’s early move up stalled at $78.46, just below the 78 percent retracement from $82.59 and the $78.9 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. The subsequent move down from $78.46 formed a daily bearish engulfing line and confirmed a daily Stochastic overbought signal. The 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 held on a closing basis, but the bearish engulfing line calls for a deeper test of support tomorrow and warns that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Another test of $73.2 is expected. Settling below this will indicate that the move down from $78.46 is more than just a simple correction of the rise from $64.61. This will also call for a test of the 50 percent retracement and 50-day moving average at $71.6 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $69.9 in the coming days. Settling below $69.9 will confirm a bearish reversal and call for the $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the new wave down from $81.75 to be challenged.

Tuesday’s decline reflects a shift in sentiment, given that the geopolitical factors that had driven prices higher have not led to supply disruptions. Even so, should geopolitical tensions rise again, prices will likely push to challenge $78.9 and higher.

Should WTI crude oil rise tomorrow and overcome the 38 percent retracement from $78.46 at $74.9 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $76.3. Settling above $76.3 would indicate that the move down has failed and put the near-term odds back in favor of challenging $77.8 and $78.9 within the next few days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold’s pullback from $2708.7 confirmed a daily RSI overbought signal. However, the pullback stalled before testing the $2656 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2708.7 today. This is a tight call for the near term, but odds lean in favor of testing the $2702 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8 again. Settling above this will call for $2720 and likely $2732.

Nevertheless, the uptrend is due for a more significant correction based on the RSI overbought signal. However, unless gold takes out $2656 and settles below the $2632 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2708.7 the move down from $2708.7 will likely be another short-lived correction. Closing below $2632 will put the near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support with thresholds at $2607 and $2594.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge the psychologically important $3.00 level today. This is also a confluent wave projection and retracement level on the November chart that sits just above the 200-day moving average. The outlook for natural gas is bullish and closing above $3.00 will call for $3.05, $3.12, and eventually the $3.20 target of a confirmed double bottom.

That said, this is a tight call for the next few days. The move up is due for a correction and $3.00 is the most probable point from which such a move will take place. Monday’s evening star setup, Tuesday’s long-legged doji, and today’s shooting star also warn that a correction will take place before the move up extends. Settling below $2.83 will complete these patterns and call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.439 at $2.79. A simple correction will hold $2.79. Settling below this will call for the $2.75 confirmation point of the bearish daily candlesticks to be challenged. Closing below $2.75 is doubtful but would suggest that a bearish reversal and much more significant test of support is underway.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Today’s rally was bullish for WTI crude oil prices in the coming days. The move up overcame the $71.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. This suggests that this wave will eventually extend to its $74.1 equal to (1.00) target. The pullback from $71.94 also held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.33 at $69.8. Another test of $71.1 is anticipated, a close above which will call for targets at $72.6 and $73.3 that connect to the $74.1 objective.

However, this is a tight call. The move up stalled at the 50-day moving average and near the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $72.4. The $72.1 lower trend line of November’s coil pattern that broke lower on September 3 also held and prices are still trading below the lower trend line of a pennant on the continuation chart that broke lower that same day. The pullback from $71.94 was likely profit-taking but serves as a warning that traders may wait on more information before making the next push higher or lower.

To retain a bullish outlook in the coming days WTI crude oil must close above $71.1 and the lower trend lines of November’s coil ($72.1) and the continuation chart’s pennant ($73.3).

Otherwise, should WTI fall below $69.1 look for a test of key near-term support at $68.2. This is the smaller than target of the wave down from $72.4. Settling below this will imply that the move up has failed again and call for a move back below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $67.6 to fulfill this wave’s $65.9 equal to (1.00) target.