Gold Price Forecast – February 27, 2025

Tag: Price Forecasting

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold finally broke out of the range between $2887 and $2970. The $2887 level, which was also the target of the confirmed $2794 double top, held on a closing basis, but prices are already trading back below $2887 during post-settlement trading hours. Furthermore, prices finally settled below the 20-day moving average, which had held for the past two days.

The move down is now poised to reach at least the $2864 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2974. Settling below this will clear the way for tests of this wave’s $2840 intermediate (1.382) target and then the $2822 larger than (1.618) target. The $2822 objective is most important because this is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2586.7. A simple correction of the uptrend should hold $2822. Settling below this will imply that a much more significant test of support is underway.

Nonetheless, because $2887 was held on a closing basis, there is still a modest chance that a false break lower has occurred. Should prices overcome $2916 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2939. Settling above $2939 will put the near-term odds in favor of gold testing $2970 again.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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Natural gas stalled just above the $4.17 larger than (1.618) target of the sub-wave up from $3.875 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.347. The subsequent move down settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.875. This implies that the corrective move up from $3.875 is complete.

The outlook for tomorrow is bearish and a test of the $3.90 smaller than (0.618) target of the waves down from $4.314 and $4.175 is expected. Settling below $3.90 will call for a test of the $3.85 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $4.347. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.019. Settling below $3.85 will clear the way for $3.81 and likely $3.74 in the coming days.

Should the move down stall again and test resistance look for $4.03 to hold. Overcoming this would call for $4.09 and possibly $4.13. Settling above $4.13, the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.875, will put natural gas back in a position to challenge and possibly close above the crucial $4.17 level. This is because the $4.13 objective connects to $4.24 as the equal (1.00) to target.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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May Brent crude oil finally broke to the downside again and has definitively taken out support around $73.6. Brent also settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $79.98 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $76.78. This was bearish for the outlook in the coming days and perhaps weeks because the wave down from $79.98 now favors a test of its $70.4 equal to (1.00) target. This is also the 78 percent retracement from $67.87, and more importantly, the smaller than target of the wave down from $83.4. Therefore, $70.4 is a longer-term bearish decision point because a sustained close below this objective will open the way for an eventual test of the $64.5 equal to target of the wave down from $83.4.

For tomorrow, look for a test of the $71.8 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $76.78. Settling below this will call for minor targets at $71.5 and $71.0 that make a connection to $70.4.

That said, today’s decline tested and held the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $67.87 at $72.5 on a closing basis. This is a potential stalling point. However, any move up will likely be a correction. Today’s $73.4 midpoint is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near term is today’s $74.3 open.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold is struggling to close above the $2965 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2886.5. This would confirm a break higher out of the range between $2887 and $2965 that prices have been trading in since February 11. Prices briefly rose above the $2965 target today but stalled at $2973.4 before pulling back again. The pullback held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2886.5 and then rose to test and hold $2965 again.

Prices are still trading near the top of the range and another test of $2965 is expected. Settling above this will confirm a break higher and open the way for tests of $2980 and likely $2997 in the coming days.

That said, this is a tight call ahead of the weekend. The indecisive trading that has taken place for the past two days has formed an intra-day head and shoulders pattern on the $5 Kase Bar chart. The challenge for this pattern is that the neckline is upward sloping. Head and shoulders patterns with upward sloping necklines generally do not perform as well as those with a flat or downward sloping neckline. Nonetheless, this pattern and today’s doji warn that another test of support within the range might take place before closing above $2965.

Closing below $2943, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2973.4 will confirm a break of the neckline and open the way for $2930 and then a test of the $2909 target of the head and shoulders. This is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2973.4. The $2909 level is key support for the near term because settling below this will put the odds in favor of another test and attempt to take out the bottom of the range at $2887.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas continued to rise and overcame a confluent $4.14 target with ease. The move up is now poised to fulfill the $4.36 XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $2.522. The move up is due for a correction and is rising at a rate that will not be sustainable for long. The $4.36 target would normally be a probable stalling point, but this is the type of move that will likely overshoot resistance. Overcoming $4.36 will call for $4.43, $4.48, and then a test of another confluent target at $4.59.

The daily RSI is overbought and the $4.36 target is in line with the continuation chart’s mid-January $4.369 swing high. However, there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, should prices pull back look for today’s $4.15 midpoint to hold. Key support is today’s $4.01 open.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

April WTI crude oil tested and held the $70.2 area again on a closing basis. A triple bottom (one could argue for a quadruple bottom) has formed around $70.2. Furthermore, today’s bullish engulfing line and close back above the 50- and 200-day moving averages implies that a larger test of resistance will take place tomorrow. Closing above $72.1 will call for $72.8 and possibly a test of the $73.3 confirmation point of the triple bottom.

At this point, it has become clear that the breakout points for the next significant move are $73.3 and $70.2. Today’s bullish engulfing line dampens the odds for a close below key support at $70.2 to negate the triple bottom and open the way for $69.5 and lower.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge a highly confluent and key objective at $3.58 again today. Most importantly, this is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above $3.58 will confirm a bullish shift in sentiment and open the way for a test of this wave’s $3.74 intermediate (1.382) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of $3.61. Settling above this will call for $3.64 and $3.69, which then make a connection to the $3.74 objective.

That said, the challenge for tomorrow’s outlook is that natural gas is struggling to settle above $3.58. Moreover, there is potential for a small double top at $3.58 which would be confirmed below $3.46. Taking out $3.50 would call for a test of $3.46, a close below which will shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to $3.42 and then the $3.36 target of the potential double top.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose as called for today and settled just below the $73.4 target. This is the highest that the wave up from $70.43 projects and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $75.18. The outlook remains bullish for tomorrow and a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $73.9 is expected. Settling above this will warn that a bullish reversal is underway.

However, the wave formation up from $70.43 is due for a correction given $73.4 is the highest that the wave up from $70.43 projects. A bearish KaseCD divergence and KasePO PeakOut (overbought signal) were also confirmed on the $0.35 Kase Bar chart at the $73.68 swing high. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of support first.

Should WTI crude oil take out the $72.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $73.68 look for a test of $72.5. This is the equal to (1.00) target, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $70.43, and is in line with today’s open. A simple correction of the move up from $70.43 should hold $72.5. Falling below $72.5 will call for a test of key near-term support at $72.1. This is the larger than (1.618) target and 50 percent retracement.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after settling above the $2867 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2392.4 on February 4. This wave calls for an eventual test of its $3041 equal to (1.00) target. However, the move up has been due for a correction and today’s move down confirmed a daily bearish MACD divergence and an overbought daily RSI signal. The daily KasePO is also overbought and a daily hanging man formed. The hanging man would be confirmed upon a close below $2854, which should also confirm the KasePO overbought signal.

This is a tight call for the near-term but the outlook for tomorrow lean bearish. Another test of $2854 is expected, a close below which will call for $2840. A minimal correction will hold $2840 because this is the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2586.7. Settling below $2840 will call for an extended correction to challenge $2814 and then the 38 percent retracement at $2784.

Nevertheless, the MACD divergence, RSI overbought signal, and hanging may fail to lead to a deeper test of support. This is because the equal to (1.00) target of the intra-day wave down from $2906 held and prices have already retraced just over 50 percent of the decline from $2906. Overcoming the $2894 intra-day swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2906 and call for a test of $2914. Settling above $2914 will call for the test of another major target and potential stalling point at $2931.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas tested and held support at $3.16 before rising to challenge the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.38 again. Today’s rise was bullish for the outlook during the next few days. March natural gas is now poised to overcome $3.38 to challenge the $3.42 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above this will call for a push above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.48 to fulfill the $3.59 equal to (1.00) target of this wave.

The $3.38 target held on Monday and the move up from $3.161 is due for a correction soon. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.161 at $3.29 to hold. Falling below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $3.23. This threshold is split between the 62 percent retracement and smaller than target of the wave down from $3.407.