LME Copper Price Forecast – January 15, 2026

Tag: Price Forecasting

LME Copper Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are detailed and thorough price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and metals ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

LME copper fell to test and hold the $12932 intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $13407. Prices also held the 38 and 50 percent retracement levels of the rise from $12517 on a closing basis. However, there is a double top around $13400 and daily bearish KasePO, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences, and a daily RSI overbought signal were confirmed today. Note that $13400 is an ideal stalling point because it is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $4371 and the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $7856.

These bearish factors indicate that a deeper correction will probably occur. Taking out $12864 will call for $12648, which then connects to the $12517 confirmation point of the double top. Settling below $12517 and confirming the double top would lead to a significant correction because the target of this reversal pattern is $11666, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $10577.5 and the 50-day moving average.

That said, this is a tight call for tomorrow because copper settled above the $13086 smaller than (0.618) target of the intraday wave up from $12915. This wave favors a test of its $13200 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $13407. Overcoming $13200 would call for another attempt to test and close above $13400. This would negate the double top and clear the way for $13712 and likely $13840 in the coming days.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil overcame the $64.81 swing high and settled above the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $58.53, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $73.73, and the 100- and 200-day moving averages today. Daily Trend indicators are bullish, prices are trading above the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and the move above the $64.81 swing high breaks the trend down from $73.73. There is also a double bottom between the $58.27 and $58.53 swing lows. A broader bullish trend is emerging and would be confirmed by a sustained close above the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.27 and the 62 percent retracement from $73.73 at $68.0.

The $65.8 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $58.53 was held on a closing basis. The daily Stochastic is overbought, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, the outlook for tomorrow is bullish. Settling above $66.1 will call for $66.9 and likely a push to challenge $68.0 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the move up is due for a test of support, and the $65.8 larger than target of the primary wave up from $58.53 is a prime level from which a correction could occur. Again, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for such a move, but caution is warranted. Should Brent crude oil fall tomorrow, look for key near-term support at $64.1. Settling below this will take out today’s open and the 200-day moving average, opening the way for a deeper test of support with the next threshold at $63.1.

Brent crude oil has turned decisively bullish, breaking above the $64.81 swing high and settling above key Fibonacci projection levels and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Prices are now trading above all major moving averages, daily trend indicators are bullish, and a double bottom around $58.4 strengthens the bullish case. A sustained close above $66.1 will call for $66.9 and likely $68.0. Key near-term support is $64.1, with a deeper correction to $63.1 and possibly lower in the case that $64.1 fails to hold.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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February gold’s pullback from $4584 looks like it is a completed correction. The $4286 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave down from $4584 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3933.2 held on a closing basis. The subsequent rise fulfilled the $4500 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $4284.3 and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4584. Most recently, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $4284.3 held and prices rose above the $4478.4 corrective swing high, invalidating the prior primary wave down from $4512.4.

Gold is poised to test $4500 again. Settling above this will call for the $4532 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $4284.3 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $4319.7. Closing above $4532 will clear the way for another test of the $4563 intermediate target of the first wave up from $4302.8 and likely a new high of $4615.

Based upon the current wave structure, key support for the near-term is the $4327 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4584. Should prices fall again and take out the $4426 smaller than target of the new wave down from $4512.4, look for a test of $4394, $4362, and possibly $4327. Closing below $4327 will shift the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to $4259 and eventually the $4212 equal to target of the wave down from $4584.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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February natural gas rose today, confirming daily bullish KasePO, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences. These bullish momentum signals reflect exhaustion and call for a larger test of resistance before the downtrend extends and tests a highly confluent area of support between $3.30 and $3.20.

The intraday wave up from $3.324 met and held its $3.59 smaller than (0.618) target. Another test of $3.59 is expected, a move above which will call for the $3.67 equal to (1.00) target to be fulfilled. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $4.176. A simple correction will hold $3.67. Settling above $3.67 will call for an extended correction to challenge $3.77 and possibly $3.83. Settling above $3.83, which is in line with the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3.324 and the 62 percent retracement from $4.176, would indicate that a substantial test of resistance is underway.

Nonetheless, the downtrend remains intact, and the top of Monday’s gap down from $3.563 held on a closing basis. The gap might still prove to be an exhaustion pattern should prices settle above the $3.59 target. Otherwise, should $3.59 hold, and prices close below $3.43, look for another attempt to take out key near-term support at $3.30. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the first wave down from $3.324 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $5.551. Settling below $3.30 would put the odds in favor of testing the $3.20 equal to target of the primary wave down from $5.551. This is another probable stalling point for the February natural gas contract.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil rose to test and hold the crucial $58.8 level before pulling back again. The $58.8 level is key near-term resistance because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the first wave up from $54.89, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $54.89, and the 62 percent retracement from $61.25. The $58.8 level also sits just above the 50-day moving average, which has held on a closing basis. Today’s $58.87 high aligns with the $58.88 swing high, reinforcing resistance around $58.8.

Today’s close below the 20-day moving average and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $58.88 indicates that WTI crude oil should test the $56.3 equal to (1.00) target tomorrow. This objective is in line with the $56.31 swing low and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.89. Settling below $56.3 will imply that the corrective move up from $54.89 is complete, opening the way for a test of the $55.7 smaller than target of the wave down from $60.12 and likely the $55.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $58.88.

Should $56.3 hold, and prices recover to rise above $58.2, look for another test of $58.8. Settling above $58.8 will put the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $58.8, $59.9, and eventually the $60.3 equal to target of the primary wave up from $54.89.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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Natural gas briefly broke the trendline up from $3.913 and fell to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.913, the 89 percent retracement from $4.390, and the 50-day moving average at $4.51. Both the trendline and the $4.51 target held on a closing basis. The outlook remains bearish because no bullish patterns or signals have been confirmed. Closing below $4.51 will suggest that the move up from $3.913 is complete. In this case, look for a test of $4.38. Falling to $4.38 will take out the last major swing low at $4.390. This would be the last factor in confirming that the trend up from $3.913 has been broken.

That said, the move down from $5.496 lacks a clear primary wave. This is an ideal stalling point given the importance of the trendline and the $4.51 target. Today’s spinning top candlestick pattern reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that a correction might occur tomorrow. Overcoming the $4.69 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $4.455 would call for a test of $4.78 and possibly key near-term resistance at $4.86. Settling above $4.86 would confirm the spinning top and put prices above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $5.496. This would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and suggest that the uptrend still has a modest chance of extending.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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January WTI crude oil failed to test the 62 percent retracement from $61.84 and the 50-day moving average around $60.0 again. The $60.0 level was challenged and held on Monday. Instead, prices fell and formed a daily bearish engulfing line. Today’s engulfing line is not as meaningful as one that forms during an uptrend. However, it suggests that a shortfall within the descending broadening wedge that formed during the decline from $61.84 has occurred. A shortfall is a failure to test the upper or lower trendline of a pattern and typically indicates the pattern will fail. In this case, the wedge may also fail because prices have already retraced more than 62 percent of the rise from $55.99. There is also a complex intraday head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at $58.3. The target of this pattern is $56.6.

A test of at least $58.3 and likely $57.7 will occur tomorrow. The $57.7 target is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $61.18 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $60.85. The $57.7 target has been tested a few times, but has held on a closing basis. Closing below $57.7 will provide more evidence that the wedge will fail to break higher and open the way for $57.1 and then a highly confluent and important target at $56.6.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past few weeks, thus the formation of the wedge. The 50 percent retracement of the rise from $57.1 held on a closing basis today, so there is still a modest chance for another attempt to overcome $60.0 and challenge the upper trendline of the wedge around $60.4. Closing above $60.4 will call for the $60.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99 to be challenged. Settling above $60.7 will confirm a breakout of the wedge because this wave connects to $63.0 as the equal to target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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January natural gas fell to challenge the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $4.881, the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $3.913, the 100-day moving average, and the trend line up from $3.913, all around $4.39 today. The decline to $4.39 negated the potential for a five-wave trend up from $3.913 because the top of the potential Wave I at $4.412 was broken by the decline to $4.386. The move up might still form a nested three-wave trend, but the odds for a continued rise within the next couple of weeks have been significantly dampened.

The near-term outlook is bearish, and taking out $4.44 will call for another test of $4.39. Settling below $4.39 will strongly suggest that a reversal is underway. This will also clear the way for a minor target at $4.34, a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.913 at $4.28, and the $4.23 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $4.881 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the $4.39 target is a probable stalling point given its confluence and importance. Short-term daily trend indicators are neutral, and the rise from $4.386 settled marginally above the $4.48 target of a confirmed intraday triple top around $4.80. There is a reasonable chance for a test of today’s $4.57 midpoint. This is also the 38 percent retracement from $4.881 and the 20-day moving average. Overcoming $4.57 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $4.64, which is today’s open and the 50 percent retracement. Settling above $4.57 would suggest that the pullback from $4.881 is a completed correction. Even so, January natural gas must ultimately settle above the $4.86 larger than (1.618) target of the first wave up from $3.913 to prove that the uptrend is still intact.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas held important near-term support at $4.27 on a closing basis Tuesday. Today’s rise confirmed Tuesday’s hammer by settling above Monday’s open. The corrective pullback from $4.688 is likely complete, and the move up is now poised to challenge the $4.63 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3.595 again. Settling back above $4.63 will call for another attempt to settle above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $5.757 at $4.68. Closing above $4.68 will indicate that Wave V of a potential five-wave trend up from $3.595 is underway. In this case, look for a test of a minor target at $4.73 and then the $4.81 smaller than (0.618) target of Wave III up from $3.752 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall again tomorrow. Nonetheless, should prices fall, look for initial support at $4.46 and $4.38. Key support for the near-term is the $4.32 smaller than target of the wave down from $4.688. Settling below $4.32 would call for another test of $4.27 and likely an extended test of support, where $4.14 is the next major threshold. Taking out $4.14 would negate the potential for a five-wave trend up from $3.595.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil broke higher out of a bullish flag again. The most recent move up came after holding crucial support at $58.1 following last week’s failed breakout of the flag. Today’s close above the $60.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $61.84 was also bullish for the outlook in the coming days. WTI now favors a move above the $61.18 swing high to challenge the $61.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $58.1. This is a key objective because $61.7 is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99, the 38 percent retracement from $71.38, the 62 percent retracement from $65.33, and the 100-day moving average. A sustained close above $61.7 will confirm a bullish outlook for at least another couple of weeks.

Should prices turn lower again before overcoming the $61.18 swing high, which would invalidate the current wave down from $61.84, look for initial support at $60.2 and then $59.8. The $59.8 level is expected to hold. Settling below this will indicate that another false breakout of the flag has occurred. In this case, look for another attempt to take out major support at $58.1.