Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

April natural gas took out the $1.683 swing low and invalidated the prior primary wave up from the $1.600 contract low today. This was bearish for the outlook in the coming days and provides more technical evidence that April will fall to a new contract low of at least $1.59. There is a minor target at $1.62, but the largest wave down from $2.009 favors a test of its $1.59 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below this will call for $1.55 and then the $1.49 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2.009. The $1.49 objective is most important because it is also the equal to target of the wave down from $3.325, the intermediate target of the wave down from $2.717, and is in line with the continuation chart’s $1.511 swing low.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Prices are trading back below all major daily moving averages and daily trend indicators are bearish again. The daily RSI and Stochastic are falling into oversold territory but can remain in that state for some time before prices turn higher. Nevertheless, should April fall to be new contract low there is potential for daily bullish KasePO, KaseCD, and MACD divergences. However, both price and momentum will need to form a swing low to confirm these signals.

Should prices turn higher before falling much lower look for initial resistance at $1.73. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $1.79. This is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.009. Settling above $1.79 would not mean that the move down has failed but would put near-term odds in favor of a larger test of resistance and warn that prices could begin to settle into a range.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas rose to a new high of $4.205 and stalled just below the next major objective at $4.24. This is the most confluent target on the chart and a key projection for many of the largest and most important waves and subwaves up from the $2.516 swing low. Given the confluent and importance of $4.24, this could prove to be another stalling point. However, once met an eventual close above $4.24 is anticipated. Such a move will clear the way for a push toward $4.51 in the coming weeks.

With that said, while the pullback from $4.205 might have been profit-taking toward the end of the day the move warns that a test of at least $4.13 and possibly $4.06 could take place first. Without a sudden bearish shift in supply/demand factors, $4.06 is expected to hold. Key support and the barrier to a bearish near-term outlook is $3.98. Settling below $3.98 will clear the way for $3.93 and possibly $3.85 instead.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for natural gas is bearish. Today’s long-legged doji reflects a bit of uncertainty, but the waves down from $4.165 and $4.025 call for a test of at least $3.91 and likely lower during the next few days. The key near-term objective is $3.82 because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $4.165. Settling below $3.82, which is also in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $3.495, will clear the way for $3.75 and eventually $3.70.

Nevertheless, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.837 has held so far. Should natural gas rally above $4.04 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $4.08. Settling above $4.08 will shift odds back in favor of rising toward the next major threshold around $4.23.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas rose as called for in yesterday’s update and easily pushed through the crucial $3.91 objective as suspected. Closing above $3.91 positions natural gas to challenge $4.00 and possibly higher during the next few days.

With that said, the move up became somewhat hesitant after overcoming $3.91. The move up is also due for a pullback because the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3.52 held. Therefore, a test of $3.87 might take place before rising to challenge $4.00. For now, $3.87 is expected to hold and $3.80 is key support for the near-term outlook. Settling below $3.80 would shift near-term odds in favor of $3.74 and possibly $3.69.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas continues to trade in an erratic range bound between approximately $3.60 and $3.81. Monday’s rise to $3.769 looks as though it was a shortfall (a failure to test the range’s upper trend line) within the range. The waves down from $3.822 and $3.769 are poised to test $3.59. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $3.822. Closing below $3.59 would confirm a break lower out of the range and clear the way for $3.54 and likely $3.48 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, prices have risen this afternoon and a test of $3.71 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Overcoming $3.71 will call for $3.77 and possibly $3.82. Settling above $3.82 would confirm a break higher and shift odds in favor of challenging another highly confluent and major threshold at $3.91.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

During the past few weeks natural gas has risen at a rate that is not sustainable. There is still risk for a move to challenge $3.90 and possibly $3.99, especially after this afternoon’s late rally to challenge $3.81 again. However, the move up will not likely last much longer and there is a potential double top that has formed at $3.81.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $3.69, a move below which will call for $3.60. This is the confirmation point of the double top. Settling below $3.60 will clear the way for an aggressive decline toward the pattern’s $3.40 target in the coming days.

With that said, should natural gas overcome $3.77 early tomorrow look for another test of $3.81. Rising above this will clear the way for $3.90 and possibly $3.99 during the next few days. At this point, there is no strong technical evidence to call for a move above $3.99.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

July natural gas rose to a new high of $3.383 but stalled short of reaching the next major objective at $3.40. Additionally, resistance around $3.35 held on a closing basis. Near-term odds still favor a test of $3.40, and a move back above $3.35 early tomorrow will increase those odds. The $3.40 target is highly confluent and a structurally important projection for the waves up from $2.165 and $2.585. This is a potential stalling point, although an eventual close above $3.40 will call for a push toward another major objective at $3.52.

With that said, one could argue that the pullback from $3.383 suggests a double top with the prior $3.369 double top is forming. The confirmation point for this potential pattern is $3.137, a level that will not likely be met during the next few days. However, based on the pullback there is a good chance for a test of $3.29 and possibly $3.36 first. Key support and the barrier for a near-term bearish outlook is $3.23. Settling below this would shift odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues to $3.40 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas held $3.17 resistance as expected in yesterday’s daily update before falling toward $3.11 again. The near-term outlook leans neutral-to-negative and a move below $3.11 early tomorrow will call for a test of $3.08. For the move up to retain a reasonable chance at rising above the $3.20 double top during the next few days, $3.08 must hold. Closing below this will call for a test of $3.05 and likely crucial support at $3.01. Settling below $3.01 is doubtful during the next few days but would call for natural gas to challenge the double top’s $2.903 confirmation point.

With that said, should natural gas overcome $3.17 before taking out $3.08 look for a test of $3.21. Settling above $3.21 would negate the double top and shift odds firmly back in favor of rising to $3.25 and $3.29.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.