Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas continued to rise and overcame a confluent $4.14 target with ease. The move up is now poised to fulfill the $4.36 XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $2.522. The move up is due for a correction and is rising at a rate that will not be sustainable for long. The $4.36 target would normally be a probable stalling point, but this is the type of move that will likely overshoot resistance. Overcoming $4.36 will call for $4.43, $4.48, and then a test of another confluent target at $4.59.

The daily RSI is overbought and the $4.36 target is in line with the continuation chart’s mid-January $4.369 swing high. However, there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, should prices pull back look for today’s $4.15 midpoint to hold. Key support is today’s $4.01 open.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge a highly confluent and key objective at $3.58 again today. Most importantly, this is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above $3.58 will confirm a bullish shift in sentiment and open the way for a test of this wave’s $3.74 intermediate (1.382) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of $3.61. Settling above this will call for $3.64 and $3.69, which then make a connection to the $3.74 objective.

That said, the challenge for tomorrow’s outlook is that natural gas is struggling to settle above $3.58. Moreover, there is potential for a small double top at $3.58 which would be confirmed below $3.46. Taking out $3.50 would call for a test of $3.46, a close below which will shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to $3.42 and then the $3.36 target of the potential double top.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas tested and held support at $3.16 before rising to challenge the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.38 again. Today’s rise was bullish for the outlook during the next few days. March natural gas is now poised to overcome $3.38 to challenge the $3.42 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above this will call for a push above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.48 to fulfill the $3.59 equal to (1.00) target of this wave.

The $3.38 target held on Monday and the move up from $3.161 is due for a correction soon. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.161 at $3.29 to hold. Falling below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $3.23. This threshold is split between the 62 percent retracement and smaller than target of the wave down from $3.407.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March natural gas tested and held the 200-day moving average around $3.07 again today and rose to test Tuesday’s $3.19 midpoint. The midpoint held on a closing basis, preventing the formation of a daily bullish piercing pattern. Today’s rise warns that a larger test of resistance might take place tomorrow but the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish.

Taking out $3.11 will call for another test of $3.07, a close below which will call for the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.522 at $3.00 to be challenged. Such a move would also clear the way for an eventual test of the $2.95 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $3.778. Settling below $2.95 would imply the move up is complete and that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Nevertheless, the intra-day wave up from $3.062 shows potential to test its $3.21 equal to (1.00) target first. Overcoming $3.21 will call for $3.26, a move above which will call for key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.34 to be challenged.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Volatility remains high for natural gas. Prices failed to test key near-term support at $3.39 today and instead rose to challenge the $3.68 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.330. The $3.68 target held on a closing basis, but today’s close above Tuesday’s midpoint and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.738 implies that the move up will probably extend to at least $3.77 and then fulfill the $3.85 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.330 within the next few days. The $3.85 target is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.201. Settling above this will strongly suggest that the corrective move down is complete.

Trading has been erratic for the past few days so caution is warranted. Should prices fell below $3.52 look for another attempt to take out key near-term support at $3.39. This level is in line with a few projections of the intra-day waves down from $4.201 and is the equal to target of the wave down from $3.738. It also aligns with the 20- and 200-day moving averages. Closing below $3.39 will clear the way for a test of $3.28 and possibly $3.20.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rallied today and settled just above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.639. The move up stalled just below the $3.42 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.977 before pulling back. The $3.42 target is a potential stalling point. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days.

A test of $3.42 is expected. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge the $3.50 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.800. This is also the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $2.977. Settling above $3.50 would confirm a bullish outlook and open the way for $3.56 and then another key objective at $3.64.

Should the pullback from $3.404 extend look for initial support at $3.30. This level will likely hold. Taking out $3.30 will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.977 at $3.24 and possibly key near-term support at today’s $3.19 open and the 50 percent retracement.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

January natural gas fell to challenge the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.800 at $2.99 and the psychologically important $3.00 level today. The move down stalled at $2.977 and prices rose to form a daily hammer. This candlestick pattern warns that a test of Tuesday’s $3.12 midpoint might occur before the move down extends.

However, a larger move up from $2.977 will likely be a correction because Tuesday’s decline settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.800 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.656. This wave favors a test of its $2.79 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $2.99 will call for $2.93 and $2.84, which then make a connection to $2.79.

That said, should natural gas overcome $3.12 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $3.22. This is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.639 and the confirmation point of today’s hammer. Settling above $3.22 and confirming the hammer will shift the near-term odds in favor of testing $3.31 and possibly the 62 percent retracement from $3.639 at $3.39 in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas rallied today and settled well above a key $3.07 target, overcame the last major swing high at $3.101, and challenged another confluence point at $3.21 that held on a closing basis. Daily trend indicators are bullish and the wave formation up from $2.514 calls for a continued rise. The daily Stochastic is overbought but can remain in that state for a long period. Otherwise, there are no daily bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal.

Overcoming $3.24 will call for a test of the $3.31 larger than (1.618) target of the waves up from $2.643, $2.688, and $2.832. This objective is also in line with the 200-day moving average. This is a point from which a test of support might take place given the confluence of $3.31. Even so, any move down will likely be a correction. This is because the primary wave up from $2.514 settled above its larger than (1.618) target today and now favors an eventual test of the $3.48 XC (2.764) projection. Along the way to $3.48, look for a target at $3.41 that is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.959.

Should a correction take place before overcoming $3.24 look for initial support at $3.13. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the small wave down from $3.229. Falling below this would call for a test of this wave’s larger than target, today’s midpoint, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2.514 at $3.08. Settling below $3.08 is doubtful but would call for a test of key near-term support at $2.96. This is in line with the 38 percent retracement and today’s open.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas initially fell to test and hold the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.514 and the 20-day moving average at $2.82. Prices then rallied and natural gas settled above the $2.95 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $2.514. This wave, and the subwave up from $2.643, now call for a test of $3.07 within the next day or so. This is a crucial objective because $3.07 is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2.514, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.643, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.959, and the 62 percent retracement from $3.406. The $3.07 objective is also near the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from the $1.856 double bottom on the continuation chart. Settling above $3.07 might initially be a challenge but will open the way for natural gas to rise to $3.14 and higher.

Nevertheless, the $3.013 swing high held and prices settled below the psychologically important $3.00 level. Should natural gas fall again and take out the $2.89 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.013 look for another attempt to close below $2.82. This is now the equal to target of the wave down from $3.013. Settling below $2.82 would warn that the move up is failing and call for a test of $2.76 and possibly $2.71 in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas failed to capitalize on Tuesday’s decline and the close at Monday’s $2.76 midpoint. Monday’s initial gap down was likely an exhaustion pattern and was followed by the formation of a daily bullish engulfing line that helped to confirm daily bullish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences. These patterns and signals indicate that a bullish reversal for the December contract might be underway.

Furthermore, today’s rise to $2.80 suggests that Tuesday’s pullback was the corrective leg of a wave up from $2.514 that projects to $2.84 as the smaller than (0.618) target. Overcoming $2.80 will call for a test of $2.84, a close above which will open the way for $2.88 and then a test of this wave’s $2.96 equal to (1.00) target.

However, this is still a somewhat tight call for the near term. The late move down from $2.796 has taken out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.651. The small wave down from $2.796 makes a connection to the $2.70 level, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement and smaller than target of the wave down from $2.818. Falling below $2.70 will call for a test of this wave’s $2.63 equal to target. The $2.63 level is key support for the near term because it is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.514. Closing below $2.63 will put the near-term odds in favor of prices falling to the $2.57 intermediate (1.382) and $2.53 larger than (1.618) targets.