Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

May natural gas initially fell below the crucial $3.40 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $4.946. The move down stalled at $3.336, which was just above the $3.31 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $4.322 and the XC (2.764) projection of the wave down from $4.253. The subsequent move up recaptured the 100-day moving average, settled above Tuesday’s open, and confirmed daily bullish MACD and Stochastic divergences. Therefore, a bullish reversal might be underway.

The intra-day wave formation up from $3.336 calls for a test of $3.89. This is the highest that the first wave up from $3.336 projects and is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.253. Overcoming this will call for the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $4.946 at $3.95 to be tested. Settling above $3.95 will imply that the move up is more than just a simple correction, clearing the way for $4.05 and possibly $4.15 to be challenged in the coming days.

Nevertheless, Monday’s open held on a closing basis and the wave formation up from $3.336 is due for a correction before overcoming $3.89. Should prices turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $3.64 and then $3.52. The $3.52 level is expected to hold. Falling below this would call for another attempt to settle below key support at $3.40.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

May natural gas broke through support at $4.05 late last week and has continued to grind its way lower for the past few days. Prices are struggling to close below the 50-day moving average at $3.85. Even so, the wave formation calls for a test of the $3.76 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $4.946. This is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $2.595. The $3.76 target is a decision point. Settling below $3.76 will open the way for the eventual fulfillment of this wave’s $3.40 equal to (1.00) target, with a test of the crucial 62 percent retracement at $3.49 along the way.

Daily momentum is working it was lower too and the 10-day DMI had a bearish crossover on Tuesday. The ADX is below 25 and declining though, so there is currently not a trend reflected by these indicators on the daily chart. There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching $3.76, but support around the 50-day moving average has been resilient for the past two days. Should May natural gas rally and overcome $3.96 look for a test of $4.02 and possibly key near-term resistance at $4.07.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

April natural gas rose today after holding the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.501 at $3.98 for four straight days. A triple bottom formed around $3.96 and was confirmed by today’s close above the $4.218 swing high. Prices also settled above the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $4.901 and the 20-day moving average.

The move up might still prove to be a correction of the decline from $4.901 but is poised to extend to at least $4.34 tomorrow. Closing above this will call for $4.42, a test of the $4.50 target of the triple bottom, and possibly another attempt to settle above a key target at $4.56 on both the April and continuation charts.

Prices are pulling back from the $4.259 swing high late this afternoon so a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.955 at $4.14 might occur first. Settling below this will warn that the move up is failing and call for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $4.07. Closing below $4.07 will imply that the move up from $3.955 is complete. However, at this point, April natural gas must settle below $3.98 to put the odds firmly back in favor of a deeper test of support.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The outlook for natural gas is bearish after the move down accelerated and confirmed Monday’s shooting star and Tuesday’s long-legged doji. The pullback from $4.901 also fell below the $4.132 swing low, took out the 20-day moving average, and confirmed daily bearish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic divergences. These confirmed bearish patterns and signals call for a more substantial test of support in the coming days and warn that a bearish reversal might be underway.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.501 at $3.98. Settling below this will provide further evidence that the move down is more than a simple correction. This will also clear the way for projections of the wave formation down from $4.901 at $3.92 and $3.80. The next major target below $3.98 is the 50 percent retracement at $3.70. Falling to $3.70 will take out the last major swing low at $3.742.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching at least $3.98. Even so, should prices rally again and overcome today’s $4.23 midpoint, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $4.37. Settling above $4.37 will warn that the move down is failing and call for a push to challenge $4.49 and possibly a major threshold at $4.57 on both the April and continuation charts again.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas stalled just below $4.24 support before rising and forming a wave up from $4.227 that settled above its $4.44 smaller than (0.618) target. This wave calls for a test of a highly confluent and crucial target at $4.56 tomorrow. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.019 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $4.227. The $4.56 objective is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $1.481 and the smaller than target of the compound wave up from $1.856 on the continuation chart. Therefore, settling above $4.56 might continue to be a challenge given the importance of this objective. An eventual close above $4.56 will open the way for $4.67 and then another highly confluent objective at $4.74.

Nevertheless, the wave down from $4.551 took out its $4.32 smaller than target when prices fell to $4.264. Therefore, while the $4.518 swing high holds, this wave still has the potential to fulfill its $4.19 equal to (1.00) target. Taking out $4.32 will call for another test of $4.24, a close below which will clear the way for a test of $4.19.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas stalled just above the $4.17 larger than (1.618) target of the sub-wave up from $3.875 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.347. The subsequent move down settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.875. This implies that the corrective move up from $3.875 is complete.

The outlook for tomorrow is bearish and a test of the $3.90 smaller than (0.618) target of the waves down from $4.314 and $4.175 is expected. Settling below $3.90 will call for a test of the $3.85 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $4.347. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.019. Settling below $3.85 will clear the way for $3.81 and likely $3.74 in the coming days.

Should the move down stall again and test resistance look for $4.03 to hold. Overcoming this would call for $4.09 and possibly $4.13. Settling above $4.13, the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.875, will put natural gas back in a position to challenge and possibly close above the crucial $4.17 level. This is because the $4.13 objective connects to $4.24 as the equal (1.00) to target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas continued to rise and overcame a confluent $4.14 target with ease. The move up is now poised to fulfill the $4.36 XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $2.522. The move up is due for a correction and is rising at a rate that will not be sustainable for long. The $4.36 target would normally be a probable stalling point, but this is the type of move that will likely overshoot resistance. Overcoming $4.36 will call for $4.43, $4.48, and then a test of another confluent target at $4.59.

The daily RSI is overbought and the $4.36 target is in line with the continuation chart’s mid-January $4.369 swing high. However, there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, should prices pull back look for today’s $4.15 midpoint to hold. Key support is today’s $4.01 open.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge a highly confluent and key objective at $3.58 again today. Most importantly, this is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above $3.58 will confirm a bullish shift in sentiment and open the way for a test of this wave’s $3.74 intermediate (1.382) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of $3.61. Settling above this will call for $3.64 and $3.69, which then make a connection to the $3.74 objective.

That said, the challenge for tomorrow’s outlook is that natural gas is struggling to settle above $3.58. Moreover, there is potential for a small double top at $3.58 which would be confirmed below $3.46. Taking out $3.50 would call for a test of $3.46, a close below which will shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to $3.42 and then the $3.36 target of the potential double top.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas tested and held support at $3.16 before rising to challenge the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.38 again. Today’s rise was bullish for the outlook during the next few days. March natural gas is now poised to overcome $3.38 to challenge the $3.42 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above this will call for a push above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.48 to fulfill the $3.59 equal to (1.00) target of this wave.

The $3.38 target held on Monday and the move up from $3.161 is due for a correction soon. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.161 at $3.29 to hold. Falling below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $3.23. This threshold is split between the 62 percent retracement and smaller than target of the wave down from $3.407.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March natural gas tested and held the 200-day moving average around $3.07 again today and rose to test Tuesday’s $3.19 midpoint. The midpoint held on a closing basis, preventing the formation of a daily bullish piercing pattern. Today’s rise warns that a larger test of resistance might take place tomorrow but the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish.

Taking out $3.11 will call for another test of $3.07, a close below which will call for the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.522 at $3.00 to be challenged. Such a move would also clear the way for an eventual test of the $2.95 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $3.778. Settling below $2.95 would imply the move up is complete and that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Nevertheless, the intra-day wave up from $3.062 shows potential to test its $3.21 equal to (1.00) target first. Overcoming $3.21 will call for $3.26, a move above which will call for key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.34 to be challenged.