Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish. However, August gold futures formed a double top at yesterday’s $1974.9 swing high. Gold had also formed daily high wave candlesticks (or long-legged dojis) earlier in the week that implied the move up was nearing exhaustion. Today’s bearish engulfing line, a KCDpeak, and a KasePO PeakOut (confirmed overbought momentum oscillator signals) call for a test of $1929 and likely $1900 before the move up continues.

The $1929 objective is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1900.2. This target was tested and held today when gold fell to $1930.0. Therefore, it may prove to be strong support.

The $1900 target is in line with the $1900.2 confirmation point of the double top. Settling below $1900 will confirm a larger reversal is underway and would call for a deeper correction to $1859 and possibly to the double top’s $1826 target ($1900.2 – ($1974.8 – $1900.2)).

Nonetheless, the move down is most likely corrective because ultimately the larger scale waves, sub-waves, and compound waves up from $1454.8 call for $2003. Should gold hold $1929 and overcome $1958 look for a test of $1976. Closing above this will call for gold to reach $2003 before possibly stalling again.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold’s move up finally accelerated this week after breaking higher out of a rectangle pattern on June 30 and then a throwback to test the $1790 breakout point on July 14. The move up has easily overcome targets around $1840 and $1871 this week but stalled this afternoon near $1898. Based on the wave structure, $1898 is a relatively minor target, and odds still favor a move above this to the next major objective at $1912. The $1912 objective is most important because it is the intermediate target of the first wave up from $1694.9 and is in line with the rectangle’s $1909.6 target ($1789 + ($1789 – $1668.4) = $1909.6). Therefore, once $1912 is met another modest test of support is expected before the move up continues.

There are no confirmed bearish reversal patterns or signals that call for a major test of support before reaching $1912. Nevertheless, the daily RSI and KasePO momentum oscillators have risen into overbought territory. This warns that a test of support will probably take place soon and suggests that $1912 will hold, at least initially.

The small move down from the $1898 confluence point also warns that a small test of support might take place before gold reaches $1912. Support at $1872 is expected to hold and $1853 is key for the near-term. Settling below $1853 would call for $1831 and possibly $1808 before gold rises toward $1912 again.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold’s move up has been lackluster after breaking higher out of a rectangle pattern on June 30. The move up fulfilled an important target at $1820, but since then, a throwback to test the breakout point of the rectangle around $1790 has taken place. Throwbacks are common and on Tuesday the correction down from the $1829.8 swing high stalled at $1971.1. However, the subsequent move back up stalled at $1819.5 and today’s price action fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1829.8. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of at least $1781 and possibly $1767 before the move up continues. There are the equal to (1.00) and intermediate (1.382) targets of the wave down from $1829.8, respectively.

Support at $1767 is also in line with the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1671.1. This target is expected to hold. Settling below $1767 will significantly dampen odds for a continued rise to target above $1820 during the next few weeks. This will also clear the way for $1753 and possibly a test of key lower support at $1732.

Conversely, the long-term outlook remains bullish, so once $1781 is met odds for another test of $1820 will begin to increase. Settling above $1820 will open the way for the next leg of the move up to $1837 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Price Forecast

Gold finally broke higher out of the rectangle pattern that began to form in mid-April. A sustained close above $1790 confirmed the break high and the next objective around $1820 has already been met. The move up stalled at $1829.8, and today’s decline suggests a test of the $1790 breakout point might take place before the move up continues. A throwback to the breakout point of a pattern like a rectangle is common. Therefore, $1790 is expected to hold.

The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish and a close back above $1820 will clear the way for $1836 and higher. The next major objective above $1820 is $1912. This is a highly confluent wave projection and is in line with the rectangle’s $1909.6 target ($1789 + ($1789 – $1668.4) = $1909.6).

Should gold close below $1790, odds for a continued rise during the next few days will be significantly dampened. Key near-term support is $1770. Settling below $1770 would reflect a bearish shift in sentiment and imply that the recent move above $1790 was a false break higher out of the rectangle pattern.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold closed above $1790 on June 30. This was bullish for the long-term outlook because $1790 is the upper threshold of a rectangle pattern that prices have been trading in since mid-April. Based on the wave formations, the move up should extend to at least $1820 and likely much higher in the coming weeks and possibly months. Nevertheless, yesterday’s close back below $1790 dampens near-term odds for a continued rise.

Today’s small move up was somewhat encouraging for gold bulls in that it overcame an intra-day swing high of $1785.5. This negated a wave down from $1807.7 that called for a deeper test of support. Tomorrow, look for a test of $1800, a close above which will substantially increase odds for a move to $1820 early next week.

Nevertheless, yesterday’s move down confirmed a bearish Slow Stochastic divergence and today’s move up held the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1807.7. Therefore, there is still a reasonable chance for a deeper test of support before the move up continues. Falling below $1766 will call for $1753, which is expected to hold. Key near-term support is $1753. Settling the week below this would call for $1738 and possibly $1724. Taking out $1724 would imply that the close above $1790 was a false break higher out of the rectangle. This is doubtful but would suggest the move up is failing.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Since mid-April, gold futures have traded in a sideways range that formed a rectangle pattern between nominally $1670 and $1790. The upper threshold of the pattern was briefly overcome on Wednesday, but $1790 held on a closing basis. Even so, odds favor a break higher out of the pattern. A close above $1790 will call for $1820 and eventually a move to the rectangle’s $1910 target ($1789 + ($1789 – $1668.4) = $1909.6).

Nevertheless, the $1790 threshold is also a confluent projection for the waves up from $1668.4 and $1671.7. Therefore, a test of $1750 support might take place first. Closing below $1750 will call for key near-term support at $1723. Any move down will likely be corrective and should result in a short fall (a failed test of the rectangle’s bottom). Even so, should gold close below $1723 look for another oscillation within the rectangle before a breakout of the pattern occurs.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Price Forecast

Gold futures are trading within the boundaries of a rectangle pattern. This is bullish for the long-term. A close above $1790 will confirm a break higher, clearing the way for the next major targets at $1816 and higher.

However, for the past few days gold has struggled to overcome resistance around $1744. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1789.0 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1671.7. Odds still favor a continued rise and a close above $1749 will call for $1761, which then connects to $1790.

That said, today’s failure to close above $1744 suggests a deeper test of support might take place first. Support at $1703, the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1671.7, is expected to hold. Falling below this would call for $1685 and then $1666, the lower of which is in line with the bottom of the rectangle. Settling below $1666 would confirm a break lower out of the pattern and a strong bearish shift in sentiment.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold is trading in a range between nominally $1670 and $1790. This is bullish for the long-term outlook as the range forms a rectangle top, a pattern that breaks higher around 63 percent of the time. The pattern also reflects the significance of $1665 support and $1790 resistance and sets gold up for a breakout trade in either direction. Both $1665 and $1790 are highly confluent wave projections, and in the case of $1665, retracements, too.

The move above $1744, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1668.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1787.5, during the last few days was positive and suggests gold should challenge $1790 again soon. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1668.4. Closing above $1790 will confirm a break higher out of the rectangle pattern, clearing the way for $1815 and higher.

Nevertheless, the recent move up looks a bit overextended on the intra-day charts and has not been able to close above $1744. Therefore, a test of $1723 and possibly $1698 will likely take place first. Support at $1698 is expected to hold. Closing the week below this will call for $1665, which is in line with the bottom of the rectangle. Closing below $1665 would confirm a break lower out of the pattern and clear the way for a much more substantial move down.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.