Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for gold remains bearish and the move up from $1877.1 is most likely corrective of the recent decline from $1927.0. Closing below $1879 will clear the way for $1855 and lower. Nonetheless, there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance first, but $1908 is expected to hold.

Gold’s recent decline from $1927.0 stalled near the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1851.0. The subsequent move up has been shallow and choppy and is most likely forming a bearish flag that is poised to break lower during the next day or so. Closing below $1879 will confirm that the move down is extending again and will call for $1855 and then $1842. The $1842 level is most important for the near-term because a close below this will clear the way for the next major objective at $1812.

With that said, the small waves up from $1877.1 suggest a test of $1908 might take place first. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1927.0 and is expected to hold. Closing above $1908 will call for $1924, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1851.0. This is a key threshold for the near-term because a close above $1924 will clear the way for $1942 and likely $1955.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold is bullish after settling above the $1851.0 double bottom’s $1911 target today. The move up is poised to reach $1938. This is the highest the wave up from $1851.0 projects and is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2089.2. Gold will likely be hard-pressed to close above $1938 without a test of support first. Therefore, once $1938 is met odds for a significant test of resistance will rise to better than even. Nevertheless, closing above $1938 would warn that the move down from $2089.2 might be complete and would call for $1958 and higher.

Should gold turn lower before reaching $1938 look for initial support at $1892 and key near-term support at $1877. Closing below $1877 will shift odds back in favor of challenging $1851 and then $1840.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for December COMEX gold is bearish after breaking lower out of a coil pattern last week and settling below a crucial $1888 objective on Wednesday. The sustained close below $1888, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2, calls for gold to reach the $1810 equal to (1.00) target in the coming days.

However, there is strong near-term support around $1843. This is the most confluent wave projection and is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $1458.8. Today’s formation of a hammer also suggests that a larger test of resistance might take place before the decline continues.

The $1888 level has become initial resistance and will likely hold. However, the increase in volatility during the past few days could help drive gold to challenge $1905. These are the completion and confirmation points for today’s hammer pattern, respectively. Settling above $1905 is doubtful but would dampen odds for a continued decline during the next few days and would shift near-term odds in favor of challenging $1930 and possibly $1954.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold is bearish after finally breaking lower out of a coil pattern and settling below the pattern’s lower trend line. Gold also settled below the 20-day moving average. The move down is now poised to reach at least $1929. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2001.2 and connects to a key objective at $1892 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $1892 objective is also the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $2089.2. Settling below this would be quite bearish for the outlook in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, a move up at the end of the day suggests gold might test the lower trend line of the coil before the decline continues. Tomorrow, this trend line will intersect with $1964 resistance and is expected to hold. Rising above this would call for another attempt at $1983, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1911.7. Settling above $1983 would imply that today’s move down was another false breakout and would clear the way for $2005 and likely higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is trading in a narrowing range that forms a coil pattern. Coils are not exceptionally reliable patterns like flags and pennants when it comes to determining a breakout direction. However, they lean in favor of a breakout in the direction of the prior move before the coil formed, in this case, down. A breakout of the coil should take place during the next few days.

Coils reflect uncertainty, which makes this is a very tight near-term call for gold right now. Even so, odds continue to lean in favor of a break lower. Falling below $1936 will call for $1820. This is the smaller than target of the wave down from $2001.2. Settling below this will confirm a break lower out of the coil and call for a test of $1888 and likely lower.

Nevertheless, gold briefly broke the coil’s lower trend line on Tuesday, but since then has challenged the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2001.2 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1908.4. Prices also settled above the 20-day moving average today. These factors suggest the coil’s upper trend line around $1988 might be challenged before another test of support. Also, the wave up from $1908.4 calls for a test of $2002. Settling above $2002 would confirm a break higher out of the coil and clear the way for $2023 and likely $2041.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is trading in a narrowing range that forms a coil pattern. Coils reflect indecisiveness and are not the most reliable patterns. Even so, they generally break in the direction of the prior move, in this case, down.

Today’s decline to $1927.2 challenged the lower trend line of the coil and fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2024.6. This is bearish and suggests that the move down should continue to the $1888 equal to target. This is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2. Settling below $1888 will call for a more significant decline.

Nevertheless, the move up to $2001.2 earlier in the week fulfilled the smaller than target of the wave up from $1874.2. This wave positive because this wave connects to $2059 and higher. The coil pattern may be building a bullish base, but until gold settles above $2001, the near-term outlook will continue to lean bearish.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for December gold futures leans bearish. Gold initially rose to $1980 as expected today. However, this level, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2024.6 and the 20-day moving average, held on a closing basis. Also, the subsequent move down from today’s $1987.0 high fulfilled the $1915 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2024.6. Therefore, odds favor a continued decline, and a move below $1915 will clear the way for $1891 and lower.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past few days. So far, the move up from $1914.7 has held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1987.0. However, should gold rise a bit higher first, look for resistance at $1961 to hold. Closing above this would shift near-term odds in favor of key resistance at $1997. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1908.4 and, more importantly, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1874.2. Settling above $1997 would call for gold to make a push for at least $2023 and likely higher next week.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Near-Term Outlook

December gold’s move up today is most likely corrective of yesterday’s decline. Near-term odds continue to favor a larger move down because of the daily and weekly reversal patterns and signals that were confirmed during the pullback from the $2089.2 swing high. A move below $1942 early tomorrow will increase odds for challenging $1932 again. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1874.2, a close below which will call for $1907 and then the key objective at $1892. Settling below $1892 will call for a much more significant test of support before gold tries to rise again.

Nevertheless, based on the intra-day waves up from $1928.9, there is a good chance for a test of $1975 and possibly $1988 before gold challenges $1932 again. Resistance at $1988 is expected to hold. Closing above this will call for $2011 and possibly $2022. The $2022 threshold is most important because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1874.2. Settling above $2022 would imply that the corrective move down is most likely complete and that the move up will begin to extend toward new highs again.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Near-Term Outlook

Gold was due for a significant test of support, the beginning of which took place on Tuesday. The move down from $2089.2 retraced just over 50 percent of the move up from $1690.1. While this aggressive move down was bearish for the near-term outlook, the move up during the past two days implies that the decline will probably prove to be corrective of the larger scale move up.

It is too soon to call for the correction to be complete. However, based on today’s move up to fulfill the $2073 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1874.2, a larger test of resistance is expected tomorrow. Rising above $1973 will clear the way for $1991 and likely $2007. The $2007 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1874.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2089.2. Settling above $2007 would signal that the correction might already be complete and would clear the way for $2020, $2040, and $2065 early next week.

Nevertheless, given the number of reversal signals that were confirmed on the daily and likely the weekly chart tomorrow, there is a good chance that $2007 will hold, at least initially.

Conversely, should $2073 continue to hold and upon an early move below $1936 tomorrow, look for a test of key near-term support at $1913. Settling the week below $1913 will call for prices to fall toward $1885 and ultimately major support at $1845 early next week.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Near-Term Outlook

The December 2020 gold futures contract finally settled above the crucial $2050 target today. This is bullish for the near-term outlook and clears the way for at least $2091 and possibly $2130. These are the next potential stalling points because they are the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $1690.1 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $1458.8, respectively.

The daily RSI and KasePO momentum oscillators are overbought. Otherwise, there are no confirmed bearish reversal patterns, signals, or setups that call for the move up to stall before reaching at least $2091.

Nevertheless, should gold fall below $2049 look for a test of $2021. This is the 38 percent retracement of the move up from the last major intra-day swing low of $1927.5. Support at $2021 is expected to hold. Settling below this will call for a deeper test of support where $1990, the 62 percent retracement, is most important for the near-term outlook.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.