Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The longer-term outlook for gold is bearish once again after the pullback from $1962.5 accelerated and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1973.3 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2. The subsequent move up from $1817.1 has been shallow and choppy and is most likely corrective. Moreover, today’s decline to $1826.6 wiped out most of the intra-day waves that had formed during the move up from $1817.1.

Near-term odds also favor a continued decline. A move below $1835 will call for $1820 and $1808. Settling below $1808 will clear the way for $1789 and lower.

Nevertheless, the move up from today’s $1826.6 low met the smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave up from $1817.1. Therefore, this wave has a reasonable chance of rising to challenge its $1873 equal to (1.00) target before the decline continues. Rising above $1856 early tomorrow will increase odds for a test of $1873. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1962.5 and is expected to hold. Closing above $1873 would call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold has begun to take on a more positive long-term outlook during the past few weeks. The primary wave up from $1767.2 is still poised to eventually challenge a bullish decision point at $1974. However, the move up stalled at $1962.5, and the subsequent pullback to $1902.6 completed a daily bearish evening star and KaseCD momentum divergence signal. Therefore, the near-term outlook is bearish and a close below the 100-day moving average around $1906 will clear the way for $1891 and possibly $1867 during the next few days. Settling below $1867 is currently doubtful but would call for a bearish decision point at $1838 to be challenged. Closing below this would strongly suggest that the move up has failed and that the larger-scale decline from $2099.2 will continue.

With that said, trading was quite choppy today and held the 100-day moving average for the second straight day. Should gold overcome $1935, yesterday’s midpoint and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1962.5, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $1955. Settling above this would reaffirm a positive near-term outlook and call for a test of the $1974 bullish decision point.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold challenged crucial resistance around $1894 and settled above the 50-day moving average today. This is quite bullish for the outlook because $1894 is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1973.3, the 38 percent retracement from $2099.2, and, most importantly, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1767.2. Most waves that meet the smaller than target rise to fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1930. Consequently, due to the confluence and importance of $1894, a sustained close above this objective would be a firm warning that the move down from $2099.2 might be complete and suggest that a longer-term bullish outlook is being readopted.

With that said, because $1894.0 held on a closing basis there is a reasonable chance for a corrective pullback to $1872 and possibly $1852 first. Support at $1852 is expected to hold. Closing below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $1833. This threshold is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2 and the 200-day moving average. Closing below $1833 would call for a move below the $1820.0 swing low. This would invalidate the wave up from $1767.2 that makes the connection from $1894 to $1930 and higher and confirm that the move up has failed.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is hovering just above a bearish decision point at $1824. This objective is split between the 200-day moving average, the $1824.8 swing low, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1879.8, and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2. Settling back below the 200-day moving average would imply that the corrective move up from $1767.2 is complete. Closing below $1807, the confluence point between the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1879.8 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2, will confirm this and clear the way for $1780 and lower.

Nevertheless, while the $1824.8 swing low holds the initial wave up from $1767.2 that met its smaller than target at $1879.8 will continue to call for its $1910 equal to target to be fulfilled. More importantly, rising to $1910 would overcome key resistance at $1896. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1973.3, the 38 percent retracement from $2099.2, and the smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave up from $1767.2. Settling above $1896 would suggest the larger scale move down might be complete and would call for gold to push toward targets well above $1910.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rose to challenge $1849 resistance as called for in yesterday’s update. This level, which is split between the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1973.3 and the 62 percent retracement from $1904.3, has held so far. Nonetheless, near-term odds still favor a continued rise due to the sustained close back above the 200-day moving average and settle (so far) above last week’s $1832 midpoint. Overcoming $1849 will call for $1862 and possibly $1872 ahead of the weekend. Key resistance and the barrier to a firm bullish near-term outlook is $1894. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1973.3 and the 38 percent retracement from $2099.2.

With that said, gold’s move up from $1767.2 lacks a wave that can support a larger rally. The retracements that have taken place during the move up have been minimal. It is rare to see a market rise above crucial resistance without an adequate wave structure. Also, due to the importance of $1849, there is a reasonable chance for a pullback to test support ahead of the weekend. This is the challenge for gold’s near-term outlook because a pullback large enough to create a wave that can sustain a larger rally will have to test the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2 around $1819. This is in line with the 200-day moving average, a close below which would signal that bears are taking control again. Settling below $1798 will confirm this and shift near-term odds in favor of $1776 and lower next week.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold remains bearish after holding resistance around $1898 and taking out the $1853.9 swing low today. The move down will likely be a grind for the interim, but the wave formations call for $1843. Settling below this will clear the way for $1825 and then the next major objective and probable stalling point at $1810.

Nonetheless, support around $1850 +/- $2 has been resilient since late September. The $1848.0 swing low held and today’s hammer suggests another test of resistance might take place first. Overcoming $1881 will call for key near-term resistance at $1900. Closing above $1900 would shift near-term odds in favor of $1920 and likely higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for gold is bearish and the move down is still in a position to eventually reach $1814. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2. The connection to $1814 is made through $1854 and $1841.

Nevertheless, today’s $1883.0 high fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1848.0. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for gold to reach the $1895 equal to (1.00) target before the decline continues. This is also in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1966.1 and the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $2089.2. For the move down to continue during the next few days $1895 must hold. Closing above this will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $1921. Settling above $1921 would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and call for another substantial test of resistance before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rallied and settled above the 50-day moving average and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2089.2. This is bullish for the near-term outlook and reflects a positive shift in near-term sentiment. The move up is now poised to challenge $1963, $1979, and possibly $1999 during the next few days. The $1999 objective is most important because this is the 62 percent retracement and the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $1851.0.

With that said, the $1948 equal to (1.00) target of the same wave up from $1851.0 held on a closing basis today. Therefore, a test of support might take place before gold challenges $1963. Initial support at $1925 is today’s midpoint and is expected to hold. Key support is $1903, today’s open and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1851.0. Closing below $1903 during the next few days will shift odds back in favor of $1873 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold settled below the 100-day moving average for the second straight day and challenged the $1857 target as called for in yesterday’s update. This confluence point is split around the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1983.8, the 89 percent retracement of the rise from $1851.0, and the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the wave down from $1939.4. This may prove to be a temporary stalling point but fulfilling the $1857 objective is bearish for gold’s outlook.

Closing below $1857 will clear the way for $1841 and then the next major objective at $1810. The $1810 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2. Once met, another significant test of resistance is expected before gold falls any lower.

As stated, due to the confluence of $1857, a test of resistance might take place before falling to $1841 and lower. Resistance at $1893 is expected to hold and $1913 is key for the near-term. Settling above $1913, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1851.0, will shift near-term odds in favor of rising to the $1948 equal to target before the decline continues.This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold continues to trade erratically but retains a bearish outlook. Today’s failure to reach $1942 and the move below $1902, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1939.4, has shifted near-term odds back in favor of testing $1882. This objective is key because taking out $1882 will clear the way for the next leg of the move down to challenge $1859, $1840, and eventually $1810.

Nonetheless, because gold overcame the smaller than targets of the waves up from $1851.0 and $1877.1, there is still a reasonable chance for a test of $1950 before the decline continues.

Should gold settle back above $1925 before taking out $1882 look for a test of $1950. The $1950 level is expected to hold. Closing above this would warn that a bullish reversal is underway and would significantly dampen odds for a continued decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.