Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold challenged $1835 as expected and stalled. This is a bullish decision point for gold because it is in line with the 50- and 200-day moving averages, the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $1919.2, and the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1750.1. Most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to fulfill the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1857. Therefore, the outlook for gold is bullish and odds favor a move and close above $1835 soon.

However, the formation of a daily long-legged doji suggests that a test of support will probably take place first. Closing below $1817 will complete the doji and settling below $1802 will confirm the reversal pattern. A move below $1802 is doubtful but would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold failed to settle above Tuesday’s open and confirm yesterday’s bullish piercing pattern. Gold might be trying to form a bottom, but based upon the wave formations, near-term odds still lean in favor of a decline to challenge the next major objective at $1735. This is the target of the five-wave pattern down from $1919.2. Therefore, once met, a three-wave test of resistance is anticipated. Closing below $1763 will increase odds for a decline to $1754, which then connects to $1735.

Nevertheless, the waves up from $1750.1 warn that a larger test of resistance might take place first. Resistance at $1789 is expected to hold. However, closing above this will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $1802. Settling above $1802 would serve as an early warning that a bottom has been made and call for $1815 and possibly higher in the coming days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for gold is bearish. The decline from $1919.2 looks to be forming a five-wave pattern that targets $1734. Gold also broke lower out of an intra-day bearish flag today and is poised to challenge $1763 tomorrow. Settling below this will open the way for $1747 and $1734.

With that said, gold has held above the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1678.4 at $1770.4 all week. Should gold rise above $1795, which is in line with the 100-day moving average, look for a test of $1809 and then key resistance at $1821. Settling above $1821 would warn that the move down is complete.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold stalled before taking out the $1868 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1919.2 today. The subsequent move up is now poised to rise above $1903. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $1855.6, which then connects to $1923 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of at least $1911, the last target protecting the $1919.2 swing high. Closing above $1911 will clear the way for $1923, which then connects to $1940 and higher.

Nevertheless, recent bearish daily candlesticks warn that the move up remains hesitant. Should gold take out $1882 look for a test of $1868 and possibly $1854. The $1854 level is crucial because it is in line with the 200-day moving average. Closing below this would open the way for $1843 and likely a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold has sustained a close above the 200-day moving average for the past four days. This is bullish for the outlook and suggests the market has adopted longer-term bullish sentiment. The challenge for the near-term is that bearish daily candlestick patterns and momentum signals indicate a test of support might take place before rising to challenge the next major objective at $1897.

Nevertheless, a move above $1885.3 early tomorrow will negate some of the downside risk by invalidating the intra-day wave down from $1891.3. Based on the wave structure, a move above $1885 should clear the way for $1897, a close above which will clear the way for $1910 and higher.

With that said, should gold take out the $1867 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1891.3 first, look for a test of at least $1856 and possibly $1846 during the next few days. Closing below $1856 will confirm the bearish candlestick patterns and settling below $1846 will confirm them. For now, $1846 is expected to hold, but settling below this will call for a deeper correction before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is struggling to reach the next major objective at $1857 after briefly overcoming the $1837 target of the confirmed $1676 double bottom. A small double top around $1846.3/$1844.7 has formed but the $1817.8 confirmation point of this pattern has held so far. The pullback from $1846.3 looks corrective and the outlook for gold in the coming weeks remains bullish. However, there is still downside risk, which makes this is an extremely tight near-term call for the next few days.

Should gold overcome $1832 early tomorrow look for a test of $1842. Settling above $1842 will clear the way for $1857, which then connects to $1874 and higher.

Conversely, should gold take out $1815 first, look for $1804 to be challenged. Closing below $1815 will confirm the double top and settling below $1804 will call for a test of the double top’s $1788 target. At this point, there is no strong evidence to call for a move below $1788.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rallied again and settled above the highly confluent $1806 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $1676.2. The outlook is firmly bullish headed into tomorrow. The move up is now poised to challenge at least $1827 and likely $1837 during the next few days. The $1837 objective is another highly confluent wave projection and the target of the $1676 double bottom. Settling above $1837 might initially prove to be a challenge but would clear the way for $1857 and higher.

A few daily momentum oscillators are set up for bearish divergence but both momentum and price will have to peak to confirm these signals. Otherwise, there are no major bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for a reversal. Even so, should gold pullback tomorrow look for today’s $1801 midpoint to hold. Key near-term support is $1787, a close below which would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold’s pullback from $1798.4 has been shallow and choppy compared to the prior move up. So far, the pullback has held $1752. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3 and the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1798.4. This means the decline is most likely corrective. Therefore, near-term odds favor a continued rise.

There is immediate resistance at $1881 but closing above $1791 would overcome the $1789.9 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $1798.4. Given the resilience of the pullback, settling above $1791 would also be a strong indication that the correction is complete, clearing the way for the next major targets at $1806 and $1837.

With that said, downside risk is increasing. Closing below $1752 would call for a test of $1738 and possibly key support at $1724. The $1738 level is expected to hold due to its confluence. The $1724 threshold is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3. Settling below this would imply that the move up is over and shift longer-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rose as expected and has definitively closed above the $1756 confirmation point of the $1676 double bottom. The daily Kase Trend and 10-day DMI indicators are now bullish and the ADX is beginning to rise. Moreover, the primary wave up from $1676.2 calls for $1789, which then connects to $1807. There is still an immediate target at $1776 that gold must contend with. However, because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the subwave up from $1677.3, a close above this will also call for a push toward this wave’s $1807 equal to (1.00) target. This then connects to $1837 as the intermediate (1.382) target. Rising to $1837 has become more probable during the next few weeks because this is also the target of the confirmed double bottom.

There are no bearish patterns, setups, or signals that call for the move up to stall. However, the $1776 target is highly confluent, and gold is pulling back a bit in post-settlement trading hours. This suggests a test of support might take place before overcoming $1776. Support at $1751 is expected to hold and $1736 is key for the near term. Settling below $1736 will call for a test of the $1723.2 swing low, which is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3. Taking this swing low out will invalidate the subwave up from $1677.3 that projects to $1776 and makes the connection to $1807 and $1837. Therefore, a move below $1723, which is currently doubtful, would shift near-term odds to bearish.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold settled above $1756 and confirmed the $1676 double bottom. The move up is now poised to reach at least $1770 and likely $1788 during the next few days. The $1788 target is most confluent and could prove to be a stalling point. However, settling above $1788 will clear the way for $1807 and possibly a push toward the double bottom’s $1837 target.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. However, the rise from $1677.3 lacks a clear wave structure, so a test of support might take place soon. For now, $1742 is expected to hold and $1728 is key for the near term. Settling below $1728 will call for a test of $1709. Closing below $1709 would imply that the move up is complete and shift longer-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.