Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold could not close below the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2308.7 at $2346 after testing and holding the $2336 XC (2.764) projection of the prior primary wave down from $2477. Prices have risen for the past couple of days and have broken higher out of a period of consolidation. Today’s close above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 and the $2375.5 confirmation point of a $2335 double bottom warns that the move down might be complete. This move up also suggests that gold will fail to confirm a double top around $2474 by closing below the $2308.7 swing low.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2408, a close above which will call for $2420. The $2420 objective is split between the $2417 target of the double bottom and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 at $2423. Settling above $2420 would provide more evidence that the move down is complete. This would also call for a test of the $2439 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2308.7 in the coming days.

Should prices turn lower again and take out $2373 look for a test of $2359 and possibly another attempt to take out $2346. Settling below $2346 would shift near-term odds back in favor of gold falling to $2327 and eventually $2309.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August gold is struggling to take out support around $2346 and today’s doji warns that the move down from $2477 may be complete. However, a double top around $2474, last week’s bearish engulfing line, confirmed daily bearish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences, and a sustained close below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2308.7 imply a deeper test of support should still take place. Closing below $2346 will call for $2329 and then a test of the $2309 smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave down from $2477.

Nevertheless, the move down has been lackluster after last week’s decline from $2477. One could also make a case for a double bottom around $2347. Should prices rise tomorrow and overcome the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 at $2394 look for a test of $2410 and possibly key resistance at $2426. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477. Therefore, settling above $2426 would strongly imply that the move down from $2477 is a completed correction of the long-term uptrend.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s pullback from $2454.2 extended today and settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2285.2 and the 20-day moving average. Daily bearish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergence were also confirmed within the past few days. Currently, there is also a weekly bearish RSI divergence and a weekly bearish engulfing line. The move down is likely a correction of the uptrend, but these bearish technical factors imply that a significant test of support will likely unfold in the coming days.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2316. This is the lowest that the first wave down from $2454.2 projects, so this is a potential stalling point. Even so, a move up will probably be a correction of the recent pullback and should hold today’s $2360 midpoint. Settling below $2316 will clear the way for a test of $2284 and possibly a major support target at $2235 in the coming days.

Should gold overcome $2360 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2380. Settling above $2380 would warn that the corrective pullback is complete and call for a test of $2406 and possibly the $2433 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2285.2 instead.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to test the $2350 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 before pulling back again. This implies that the wave up from $2304.6 will test its $2366 equal to (1.00) target. However, the pullback from $2350.9 took out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2324.8. Therefore, odds lean in favor of taking out the $2324.8 swing low to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.6 at $2322. This will invalidate the wave up from $2304.6 that projects to $2366 and higher. This will also call for a test of $2301 and then the $2283 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2448.8.

Nevertheless, while the $2324.8 swing low holds there is still a reasonable chance for a test of $2366. Closing above this will call for key resistance and larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 at $2400 to be challenged. The $2400 level is also the 62 percent retracement from $2448.8 and confirmation point of the bullish daily candlesticks that formed Tuesday and Wednesday. Settling above $2400 would imply that the corrective move down is complete, shifting the odds in favor of gold rising to $2433 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold has been trading in a small corrective range for the past few days. Last week’s late pullback from $2448.8 and the formation of weekly and daily shooting stars and daily weak bearish divergences warn that a reversal might still take place. However, prices are rising toward a key near-term target at $2419. Therefore, the pullback from $2448.8 will probably prove to be a short-lived correction. A move above $2407 will call for a test of $2419. Closing above $2419 will open the way for $2452, which then connects to $2473 and higher.

With that said, this is a tight call for the near term because given the bearish patterns and signals mentioned above there is still a reasonable chance for a test of key support at $2348. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2448.8. Taking out $2381 will call for a test of $2365 and possibly $2348. Settling below $2348 will shift the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to $2306 and possibly lower.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied to settle above Wednesday’s open. The move up also overcame the $2378 equal to (1.00) target of the waves up from $2016.3 and $2337.1 as well as the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2343.1 and the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $2384.5 during post-settlement trading hours. Today’s rise implies that the corrective pullback from $2384.5 is complete. Tomorrow, look for a test of $2394. Settling above this will open the way for $2410 and then a test of the next major uptrend objective at $2446 in the coming days.

Because the $2384.5 swing high held, bearish daily divergences that were confirmed at that high are still intact. It is doubtful that $2384.5 will continue to hold. Even so, should prices turn lower and take out $2365 look for a test of $2354 and possibly key near-term support at $2335.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2200.6 at $2190. The uptrend is intact but this is a tight call for the near term because the corrective move down from $2225.3 still shows potential to extend upon a close below key support at $2159. Even so, today’s rise has positioned gold to challenge key near-term resistance at $2203. This is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $2225.3 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2158.4. Settling above $2203 will strongly imply that the correction is complete and open the way for $2218 and then a test of this wave’s $2233 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past week and the close above $2190 was nominal. Should gold fall again look for initial support at $2179 and then $2168. Closing below $2168 would warn that the move up is failing again and call for a test of key support and the smaller than target of the wave down from $2225.3 at $2159. Settling below this will call for the corrective move down to extend to $2136 and possibly lower.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold continued to rise as expected and overcame the $2171.5 April contract high. The $2171.5 swing high, which is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the first wave up from $1861.7, held on a closing basis though. Therefore, there is potential for a double top between the $2171.5 and $2172.2 swing highs. Daily momentum oscillators are overbought and the move up is due for a test of support.

However, there are no confirmed patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, the outlook remains bullish and overcoming $2180 will call for a test of the next major objective and probable stalling point at $2190. The $2190 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1861.7 and the equal to target of the wave up from $1975.1. A solid test of support is anticipated before sustaining a close above $2190.

Given the potential for a double top and overbought daily momentum oscillators, the odds for a test of support in the coming days have risen. Even so, any move down will likely be a correction and should hold $2135. Settling below $2135 would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.