Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold is struggling to close above the $2965 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2886.5. This would confirm a break higher out of the range between $2887 and $2965 that prices have been trading in since February 11. Prices briefly rose above the $2965 target today but stalled at $2973.4 before pulling back again. The pullback held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2886.5 and then rose to test and hold $2965 again.

Prices are still trading near the top of the range and another test of $2965 is expected. Settling above this will confirm a break higher and open the way for tests of $2980 and likely $2997 in the coming days.

That said, this is a tight call ahead of the weekend. The indecisive trading that has taken place for the past two days has formed an intra-day head and shoulders pattern on the $5 Kase Bar chart. The challenge for this pattern is that the neckline is upward sloping. Head and shoulders patterns with upward sloping necklines generally do not perform as well as those with a flat or downward sloping neckline. Nonetheless, this pattern and today’s doji warn that another test of support within the range might take place before closing above $2965.

Closing below $2943, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2973.4 will confirm a break of the neckline and open the way for $2930 and then a test of the $2909 target of the head and shoulders. This is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2973.4. The $2909 level is key support for the near term because settling below this will put the odds in favor of another test and attempt to take out the bottom of the range at $2887.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after settling above the $2867 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2392.4 on February 4. This wave calls for an eventual test of its $3041 equal to (1.00) target. However, the move up has been due for a correction and today’s move down confirmed a daily bearish MACD divergence and an overbought daily RSI signal. The daily KasePO is also overbought and a daily hanging man formed. The hanging man would be confirmed upon a close below $2854, which should also confirm the KasePO overbought signal.

This is a tight call for the near-term but the outlook for tomorrow lean bearish. Another test of $2854 is expected, a close below which will call for $2840. A minimal correction will hold $2840 because this is the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2586.7. Settling below $2840 will call for an extended correction to challenge $2814 and then the 38 percent retracement at $2784.

Nevertheless, the MACD divergence, RSI overbought signal, and hanging may fail to lead to a deeper test of support. This is because the equal to (1.00) target of the intra-day wave down from $2906 held and prices have already retraced just over 50 percent of the decline from $2906. Overcoming the $2894 intra-day swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2906 and call for a test of $2914. Settling above $2914 will call for the test of another major target and potential stalling point at $2931.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied today and finally settled above the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565 and fulfilled the $2825 target. The $2826.3 swing high was overcome but there is potential for a double top with today’s $2829.5 high. Nonetheless, it is doubtful that the double top will form because the wave formation calls for a test of a minor target at $2835 and then the next major target at $2849. The $2849 objective is highly confluent, and, most importantly, is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave up from $2372.6.

Aside from the potential for a double top, there are no other bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, after such a large single day move up a test of support might take place first. Today’s $2798 midpoint is expected to hold. Key support for the near term is today’s $2773 open and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2773 before prices rise any higher would indicate that a double top has formed and call for an extended test of support in the coming days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and finally settled above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3, the 50-day moving average, and the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $2596.7. Tomorrow, look for a test of this wave’s $2704 larger than (1.618) target. Settling above $2704 will call for a test of a $2721 bullish decision point that is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2565. Closing above $2721 should initially be a challenge given this target’s confluence and importance but will confirm a bullish outlook for gold and open the way for $2741, $2771, and then a test of the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565.

Nevertheless, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2608.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3 were tested and held today. Prices settled just below this level around $2698, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, $2698 is a potential stalling point. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2596.7 at $2659 to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support and the 62 percent retracement at $2635.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up failed to reach $2772 and stalled at $2761.3. The subsequent pullback and close below Wednesday’s open was bearish for the outlook ahead of the weekend. The decline from $2761.3 is probably a correction that suggests prices may consolidate again because the wave up from $2565 favors an eventual test of its $2808 equal to (1.00) target. However, a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2565 at $2686 is expected first. Closing below $2686 would warn that the move up is failing and call for the 50 and possibly 62 percent retracement at $2663 and $2640 to be challenged in the coming days.

That said, the move down from $2761.3 lacks a clear wave structure to drive prices much lower. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2724 and even $2738 first. The $2738 level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2738 would imply that the pullback was a short-lived correction and call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2771.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold failed to rise and challenge the $2704 equal to (1.00) target of the compound wave up from $2629.7 after testing the $2682 smaller than (0.618) target on Wednesday. Instead, prices fell and are poised to take out the $2644.1 and $2644.5 corrective swing lows of the waves up from $2629.7 that still show potential to extend to $2704 and higher. Moreover, the wave down from $2690.5 took out its smaller than target and is positioned to fulfill its $2635 equal to target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2635 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and call for $2615 and then a test of the $2586 smaller than target of the wave down from $2826.

Should gold rise again and overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2682 at $2668 look for another test of $2682. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2704 to be challenged.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose to challenge the $2672 XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $2541.5 and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2801.8. This is a potential stalling point and there is a reasonable chance for a test of support before the move up extends. Even so, a move down ahead of the weekend will likely be a simple correction because the wave up from $2558.9 also met its $2675 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave calls for a test of its $2705 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $2801.8. Settling above $2705 will strongly suggest that gold’s corrective pullback from $2801.8 is complete.

Should a correction take place first, look for initial support at $2650 to hold. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $2625. A normal correction of the rise from $2541.5 will hold $2625. Settling below this will warn that the move up is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of gold testing the 62 percent retracement at $2593.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold fell below the $2565 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2801.8, the $2549 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2718.3, the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and the 100-day moving average today. Gold settled below the 50 percent retracement. Otherwise, the other important support targets held on a closing basis and a daily hammer formed. Daily bullish KasePO and KaseCD momentum divergence signals and an oversold KasePO PeakOut signal also formed at the $2541.5 swing low on the $10 Kase Bar chart.

The outlook for gold remains bearish and closing below $2555 will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2527. Settling below this will open the way for the next highly confluent target at $2503.

Nevertheless, given the confluence of support in the area tested today, a correction might occur first. Today’s hammer and the confirmation of intra-day bullish momentum signals also suggest that such a move will probably take place first. A move up will likely be a correction but there is a good chance for a test of $2595 first. This is the smaller than target of the current wave up from $2541.5 and overcoming this will call for a test of at least the $2610 equal to (1.00) target. The $2610 level will likely hold. Rising above $2610 would call for key near-term resistance at $2639 to be challenged.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose after Wednesday’s significant decline. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2618.8 and the 50-day moving average were tested early but the move down stalled at $2650.3 before rising to challenge Wednesday’s $2715 midpoint. This level held and prices settled below the 20-day moving average again.

Today’s rise dampens the likelihood of a deeper test of support in the coming days. Even so, the daily Kase Trend indicator is bearish and weekly bearish KaseCD and MACD divergences will likely be confirmed unless gold can overcome the $2801.8 on Friday. Therefore, the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish, and taking out $2672 will call for a test of $2652. Settling below $2652 will call for a key objective at $2626 to be challenged. The $2626 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave down from $2801.8, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and the last target protecting the last major swing low of $2618.8. Settling below $2626 will indicate that a major test of support is finally underway.

Nevertheless, there is a good chance for a test of the 20-day moving average at $2730 early Friday. Overcoming this will call for the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2801.8 at $2744 and possibly a test of key near-term resistance at $2763. The $2763 level is the smaller than target of the wave up from $2618.8. Settling above this will imply that the corrective move down is complete and shift the odds in favor of gold rising to new highs next week.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up has been due for a solid test of support for some time now. Weekly momentum has been overbought and daily momentum moved back into overbought territory on the RSI earlier in the week. The bullish trend is intact, but today’s decline and confirmation of bearish daily MACD and RSI divergences suggest that a correction might finally be underway.

The challenge is that a similar pattern that formed on October 23 failed to lead to a meaningful correction.

Regardless, today’s move down was bearish for the near-term outlook, and a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2732 is expected. Closing below this will call for the 50 percent retracement from $2618.8 and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2710 to be challenged. This is the most important target because closing below $2710 will take out the 20-day moving average and shift the Kase Trend indicator to bearish (which it has not been since August 16).

That said, prices rose a bit late this afternoon. Should gold overcome today’s $2774 midpoint look for another test of key resistance at $2802. Settling above $2802 will negate the bearish patterns and signals that formed today and put the near-term odds back in favor of gold rising to $2823 and higher.