RBOB Gasoline continued its decline and met a crucial target at 155.8 for the primary wave down from 315.2. The trend terminus (T = 156.3), is the lowest that most trends extend. However, there is no evidence that the decline is going to end. The next targets are 147.3 and 139.2. The KaseCD is setup for divergence and the KasePO is oversold, so a correction may take place soon. Last week’s midpoint and open are initial resistance at 168.1 and 176.5. A close over 176.5 would call for $198.3.
December RBOB futures met confluent support at $2.0776, and prices have subsequently settled into a coil formation that should break lower. However, a KasePO PeakOut (green P), indicates the move down is oversold and due for a correction. A directional break out of the coil will help to clarify the near term direction. Upon a break lower, look for $2.041 and then $1.915. Should the upward correction extend, watch for resistance at $2.240 and $2.368. The latter is expected to hold.
For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.
Successful long term hedging requires logical decision-making. Hedgers need to understand the underlying structure of the market and longer-term behavior in order to find points that minimize the risk and maximize the results of a hedge plan. It is also important to find the best balance for your company between budget oriented goals and achieving better than market prices. The HedgeModel identifies these low risk points and can be custom tailored to whatever strategy is befitting your mixture of goals and risk tolerance.
The HedgeModel is statistically based and does not require any previous trading experience to use. It is more-or-less mechanical and requires only 15 to 20 minutes per day to operate. It is data driven, so it works on any historic data stream in energy, including natural gas, crude oil, refined products, petrochemicals and crack spreads.
The Natural Gas Hedge Report is a companion product to Kase’s HedgeModel that includes a forecast for the perpetual, three-, six- and twelve-month strips. It also includes recommendations on how to set hedging strategies for the forthcoming quarter, changes to the settings used by HedgeModel, low-risk hedge targets, recommendations on what instruments to use, a track record and mark to market of recommended strategies, and research results.
Kase also performs ongoing research into market behavior and structure. Our research is oriented toward improving the results of our clients’ hedging strategies. In addition to a thorough evaluation of basis and correlation analysis, standard research in our quarterly Hedge Reports includes Monte Carlo simulations for estimating price distributions and objectives, statistical analysis of price and volatility, and cyclical behavior.
