WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil continues to trade in a narrowing range. Prices were poised to break lower out of the range coming into the week, but the move down stalled again and prices have risen for the first two days of the week. There is evidence that a larger test of resistance within the range might occur, so this is a tight call. Even so, the move up from $66.98 is likely a correction and the outlook continues to lean bearish and favors an eventual break lower out of the range.

Today’s long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that the corrective move up from $66.98 might already be complete. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.98 and the $67.72 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $66.98 that suggests a larger test of resistance might occur. This will also call for a test of a confluent target at $66.8, a close below which will open the way for a break lower out of the range to test $65.6 and lower.

That said, the wave up from $66.98 met its $68.9 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave warns that a test of its $69.6 equal to (1.00) target might take place first. To reach $69.6 WTI crude oil must overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 at $69.2. The $69.6 level, if met, is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $70.1. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 and connects to $72.0 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a weeks-long range. Each time prices have been positioned to break higher or lower out of the range a reversal has taken place. This happened again today. The wave down from $72.41 fulfilled its $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target and favored an eventual test of its $65.6 equal to (1.00) target. Such a move would have resulted in a break lower out of the range. However, prices rallied today and challenged the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.51 at $70.1. This level held on a closing basis but today’s rise confirmed Monday’s inverted hammer and the wave up from $67.71 calls for a test of its $70.7 equal to target. This is also the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53. Closing above $71.7 will put WTI crude oil back in a position to attempt a break higher out of the range by closing above the $72.7 equal to target of this wave and the wave up from $66.32. The $72.7 objective is also in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.04 and the $72.41 confirmation point of a $66.4 double bottom.

Nonetheless, caution is still warranted because until the $71.51 swing high is overcome the wave down from $72.41 will have potential to extend to its $65.6 equal to target. Should the $70.1 level continue to hold and prices fall below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $67.71 at $69.3 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $68.7. Taking out $68.7 will warn that the move up is failing again. Settling below the $67.9 smaller than target of the wave down from $71.51 will confirm this is the case and put the odds back in favor of WTI crude oil falling to $66.4 and $65.6.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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January WTI crude oil continues to trade in a weeks-long range. Each time WTI crude oil has been poised to break higher or lower out of the range a reversal has taken place. This looks to be the case again this week. The move up from the $66.4 double bottom was poised to break higher upon a close above the $72.6 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $66.32. However, Monday’s bearish engulfing line and today’s move below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.53 and smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $71.51 around $68.4 imply that another test of the bottom of the range will probably take place in the coming days.

The wave down from $71.51 calls for a test of its $67.4 equal to target. This will push prices below the $67.9 smaller than target of the wave down from $72.41. Settling below $67.9 will clear the way for an eventual test of this wave’s $65.6 equal to target, which is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $71.51. The connection to $65.6 is also made through the $66.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $71.51, which is in line with the $66.4 double bottom. Therefore, closing below $67.9 will put WTI crude oil in a position to break lower out of the trading range.

That said, the $68.4 target held on a closing basis and prices have risen from the $68.05 swing low this afternoon. The move up from $68.05 is likely a simple correction and is expected to hold the 38 percent retracement from $71.51 at $69.4. Overcoming this would call for a test of the 62 percent retracement and $70.3 swing high. Overcoming $70.3 would invalidate the wave down from $71.51 that calls for $67.4 and lower. This would also call for a test of key near-term resistance and the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 at $71.1. Settling above $71.1 would shift the odds in favor of WTI crude oil attempting to break higher out of the range again by settling above $72.8, a threshold that this split between the equal to target of the waves up from $66.32 and $66.53 and above the confirmation point of the $66.4 double bottom.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Tomorrow’s outlook for January WTI crude oil leans bullish given Monday’s bullish engulfing line. One could also make a case for a double bottom between the $66.32 and $66.53 swing lows. However, the longer-term outlook for WTI crude oil remains bearish and the move up from $66.53 is likely another correction. Furthermore, this is a tight call for tomorrow given today’s lackluster move up and the formation of an intra-day head and shoulders pattern.

The key for a larger test of resistance is an early move above the $69.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $68.48. Such a move would negate the head and shoulders pattern and call for a test of this wave’s $70.3 equal to (1.00) target. The $70.3 objective is crucial because it is also the smaller than target of the waves up from $66.32 and $66.53. Closing above $70.3 would call for the $71.3 equal to target of the wave up from $66.53 and then a test of the $72.5 equal to target of the wave up from $66.32. The $72.5 objective is in line with the $72.41 confirmation point of the debatable $66.32/$66.53 double bottom.

That said, falling below $68.5 before rising to $69.8 would confirm the intra-day head and shoulders pattern. Below $68.5 look for support at $67.8. This is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $69.74 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.53. Closing below $67.8 would strongly suggest that the move up from $66.53 is a completed correction. Settling below $67.3, which is in line with this wave’s larger than (1.618) target and the target of the head and shoulders, would confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.72 and the 20- and 50-day moving averages on Monday. The move down is poised to challenge the $67.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.95. Taking out a minor target at $67.8 early tomorrow will clear the way for a test of $67.3. Settling below $67.3 will confirm a bearish outlook and call for the $66.1 smaller than target of the wave down from $77.7 to be challenged within the next few days.

That said, today’s long-legged doji reflects a bit of near-term uncertainty and warns that a test of Monday’s $69.2 midpoint might take place first. Closing above $69.2 will complete the long-legged doji and settling above $70.3 will confirm the pattern. This would warn that the move down is failing again and call for a test of key near-term resistance and the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.72 at $71.7.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil gapped lower from $69.96 on Monday and settled below the $67.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.95 on Tuesday. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $64.16 has held on a closing basis for the past two days. Even so, the gap down and close below $67.3 reflect bearish sentiment for the coming days and perhaps weeks.

The move down is now poised to test the $66.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $77.7. This is also the smaller than target of the compound wave $77.7 – $68.17 – $72.34. Settling below $66.3 will open the way for a test of $66.6 and then the $64.6 larger than (1.618) target of the first wave down from $77.7.

There are no daily bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Nonetheless, the daily Stochastic is nearing oversold territory and a confirmed bullish KasePO divergence and long warning signal on the $0.35 intra-day Kase Bar chart warn that a test of $68.3 might take place first. Overcoming $68.3 would call for a test of $69.0, which is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near term is the top of Monday’s gap down on the daily chart at $70.0. Settling above $70.0 would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil continued to rise on Tuesday as called for in Monday’s update and settled above the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The 38 percent retracement of the decline from $77.7 at $71.8 held on a closing basis. Even so, the move up during the past two days reflects a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and warns that another significant test of resistance is underway.

The intra-day wave formation up from $68.17 calls for a test of 72.4 and possibly the 50 percent retracement at $72.9. Settling above $72.9 will call for major resistance at $74.2 to be challenged in the coming days. This is the 62 percent retracement and 200-day moving average. Settling above $74.2 will imply that the move down from $77.7 is complete.

That said, a normal correction will continue to hold $71.8. A bearish KasePO divergence and short warning entry signal on the $0.35 Kase Bar chart also warn that the move up from $68.17 might be complete. However, to confirm this, prices will have to settle below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $68.17 at $69.7.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil fell to test the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $69.9 and nearly fulfilled the $69.3 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $78.46. Both targets held on a closing basis and the move up from $69.71 formed a wave that should challenge at least $71.2 and possibly its $72.1 larger than (1.618) target first.

The move up is likely a correction though. The near-term outlook remains bearish and another test of $69.9 and likely $69.3 is expected. Settling below $69.3 will confirm a bearish outlook and strongly suggests that the move up from $64.61 is complete. This will also clear open the way for a test of $67.7 and then the $66.8 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $78.46 in the coming days.

That said, oversold RSI and KasePO PeakOut signals on the $0.65 Kase Bar chart warn that the test of resistance could lead to a bullish reversal. Overcoming $72.1 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $73.1. A normal correction of the move down will hold $73.1 because this is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.46. Closing above this would shift the near-term odds in favor of challenging $73.9 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $75.1.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has been on a wild ride during the past few weeks. Prices rallied and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $64.61 on Monday. The November contract also overcame an important $77.45 swing high early Tuesday. These factors were bullish for the outlook and implied that WTI crude oil was adopting a much firmer bullish outlook.

However, Tuesday’s early move up stalled at $78.46, just below the 78 percent retracement from $82.59 and the $78.9 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. The subsequent move down from $78.46 formed a daily bearish engulfing line and confirmed a daily Stochastic overbought signal. The 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 held on a closing basis, but the bearish engulfing line calls for a deeper test of support tomorrow and warns that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Another test of $73.2 is expected. Settling below this will indicate that the move down from $78.46 is more than just a simple correction of the rise from $64.61. This will also call for a test of the 50 percent retracement and 50-day moving average at $71.6 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $69.9 in the coming days. Settling below $69.9 will confirm a bearish reversal and call for the $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the new wave down from $81.75 to be challenged.

Tuesday’s decline reflects a shift in sentiment, given that the geopolitical factors that had driven prices higher have not led to supply disruptions. Even so, should geopolitical tensions rise again, prices will likely push to challenge $78.9 and higher.

Should WTI crude oil rise tomorrow and overcome the 38 percent retracement from $78.46 at $74.9 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $76.3. Settling above $76.3 would indicate that the move down has failed and put the near-term odds back in favor of challenging $77.8 and $78.9 within the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Today’s rally was bullish for WTI crude oil prices in the coming days. The move up overcame the $71.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. This suggests that this wave will eventually extend to its $74.1 equal to (1.00) target. The pullback from $71.94 also held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.33 at $69.8. Another test of $71.1 is anticipated, a close above which will call for targets at $72.6 and $73.3 that connect to the $74.1 objective.

However, this is a tight call. The move up stalled at the 50-day moving average and near the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $72.4. The $72.1 lower trend line of November’s coil pattern that broke lower on September 3 also held and prices are still trading below the lower trend line of a pennant on the continuation chart that broke lower that same day. The pullback from $71.94 was likely profit-taking but serves as a warning that traders may wait on more information before making the next push higher or lower.

To retain a bullish outlook in the coming days WTI crude oil must close above $71.1 and the lower trend lines of November’s coil ($72.1) and the continuation chart’s pennant ($73.3).

Otherwise, should WTI fall below $69.1 look for a test of key near-term support at $68.2. This is the smaller than target of the wave down from $72.4. Settling below this will imply that the move up has failed again and call for a move back below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $67.6 to fulfill this wave’s $65.9 equal to (1.00) target.