WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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May WTI crude oil held resistance at $69.7 and settled below the crucial $69.2 level again. The $69.2 threshold is a decision point for WTI crude oil because it is in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $64.85, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $76.57, and the bullish threshold for the daily Kase Trend indicator.

A normal correction of the decline from $76.57 should continue to hold $69.2 on a closing basis. Today’s long-legged doji and daily bearish KaseCD divergence setup indicate this may be the case. To confirm the bearish momentum divergence, today’s $69.68 high must hold and WTI crude oil must fall below today’s $68.52 low. The smaller than (0.618) target of the intra-day wave down from $69.68 is $69.4. Falling below this will call for $67.9, a close below which will confirm the long-legged doji and take out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.85. Such a move would open the way for tests of $67.3 and $66.7 in the coming days. Settling below $66.7 will imply that the corrective move up from $64.85 is complete.

Nevertheless, this is a very tight call for tomorrow. Closing above the $69.8 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $64.85 will confirm bullish sentiment and open the way for tests of the 50- and 200-day moving averages at $70.4, thus overcoming the $70.19 swing high. In this scenario there is also a good chance for a test of $70.8 and eventually a key resistance level at $71.9, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $76.57. Settling above $71.9 will imply that the move down from $76.57 is complete and that WTI crude oil has adopted a bullish outlook for the coming weeks.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is struggling to take out the $65.22 swing low. A double bottom around $65.25 formed. This pattern’s confirmation point is the $68.22 swing high. The daily bullish KaseCD and MACD divergences confirmed at the $65.22 swing low are intact, and the wave up from $65.22 fulfilled its $65.1 smaller than (0.618) target. This wave connects to $68.3 as the equal to (1.00) target. Given these factors, the near-term outlook leans bullish. Closing above $68.2 will open the way for a more substantial correction and potentially a bullish reversal because the double bottom’s target is $71.3

That said, a larger move up from $65.22 will likely be a correction because the wave formation still favors an eventual test of $62.7. Furthermore, the wave down from $68.22 warns that the double bottom will fail, making this a tight call for tomorrow. Taking out the $65.4 smaller than target of this wave will call for a move below the double bottom to fulfill this wave’s $64.8 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $64.8 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

April WTI crude oil tested and held the $70.2 area again on a closing basis. A triple bottom (one could argue for a quadruple bottom) has formed around $70.2. Furthermore, today’s bullish engulfing line and close back above the 50- and 200-day moving averages implies that a larger test of resistance will take place tomorrow. Closing above $72.1 will call for $72.8 and possibly a test of the $73.3 confirmation point of the triple bottom.

At this point, it has become clear that the breakout points for the next significant move are $73.3 and $70.2. Today’s bullish engulfing line dampens the odds for a close below key support at $70.2 to negate the triple bottom and open the way for $69.5 and lower.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose as called for today and settled just below the $73.4 target. This is the highest that the wave up from $70.43 projects and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $75.18. The outlook remains bullish for tomorrow and a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $73.9 is expected. Settling above this will warn that a bullish reversal is underway.

However, the wave formation up from $70.43 is due for a correction given $73.4 is the highest that the wave up from $70.43 projects. A bearish KaseCD divergence and KasePO PeakOut (overbought signal) were also confirmed on the $0.35 Kase Bar chart at the $73.68 swing high. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of support first.

Should WTI crude oil take out the $72.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $73.68 look for a test of $72.5. This is the equal to (1.00) target, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $70.43, and is in line with today’s open. A simple correction of the move up from $70.43 should hold $72.5. Falling below $72.5 will call for a test of key near-term support at $72.1. This is the larger than (1.618) target and 50 percent retracement.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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March WTI crude oil fell to test the $70.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $79.39 at $70.6. Prices stalled just above this important objective at $70.67 and then bounced to test and hold the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $75.18 at $73.5. Today’s long-legged doji and the failure to close below the 200-day moving average at $72.1 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $63.65 and the 50-day moving average at $71.5 reflects uncertainty.

Even so, the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish heading into tomorrow. Taking out $71.6 will call for another test of $70.6, a close below which will call for $70.1, and then a test of a long-term bearish decision point at $69.6.

However, the intra-day pullback from $73.35 may be forming a bullish flag. Falling below $72.1 will negate the pattern. Otherwise, settling above $73.5 will confirm a break higher and call for a push to test $74.1 and then key near-term resistance at $75.2. The $75.2 level is in line with the $75.18 corrective swing high of the primary wave down from $79.39. Overcoming $75.2 will invalidate this wave and shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $76.1.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March WTI crude oil rose to test resistance today but failed to close above the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 and Monday’s midpoint. The decline from $79.39 has been due for a test of resistance that will form the corrective leg of a primary wave that can continue to drive prices lower. The rise from $72.38 is likely that move.

Given today’s rise is probably a correction, the outlook for the coming days remains bearish. Taking out $72.6 will call for a test of the 200-day moving average at $72.2 and then the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $63.65 at $71.5.

Nevertheless, there is a reasonable chance for the corrective move up from $72.38 to extend first. Overcoming $74.1 early tomorrow will call for a test of Monday’s open and the 20-day moving average at $74.5. This connects to the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $75.1. A normal correction will hold $75.1. Closing above this will warn that the move down is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $76.0 and possibly $76.7 within the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has developed a bullish outlook in recent weeks. Last week’s close above the $63.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $63.73 implies that prices should eventually reach this wave’s $78.7 equal to (1.00) target.

For the near term, WTI crude oil shook off Monday’s pullback. Support at $73.0, near the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $66.01, held and prices settled just below the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $74.99. Today’s rise has put WTI crude oil in a position to challenge $74.8 again. Settling above this will take out the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $66.01. This will clear the way for a test of $75.4 and then the respective $76.0 and $76.7 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $66.01 and the first wave up from $63.73.

Nevertheless, there is still a modest chance for a deeper test of support soon given the daily KasePO and Slow Stochastic are overbought. Should the move up stall again and close below the $73.4 smaller than target of the wave down from $74.99 look for a test of the equal to (1.00) target and 200-day moving average at $72.7. Settling below $72.7 will shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.01 at $71.6 before the move up extends.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a narrowing range. Prices were poised to break lower out of the range coming into the week, but the move down stalled again and prices have risen for the first two days of the week. There is evidence that a larger test of resistance within the range might occur, so this is a tight call. Even so, the move up from $66.98 is likely a correction and the outlook continues to lean bearish and favors an eventual break lower out of the range.

Today’s long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that the corrective move up from $66.98 might already be complete. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.98 and the $67.72 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $66.98 that suggests a larger test of resistance might occur. This will also call for a test of a confluent target at $66.8, a close below which will open the way for a break lower out of the range to test $65.6 and lower.

That said, the wave up from $66.98 met its $68.9 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave warns that a test of its $69.6 equal to (1.00) target might take place first. To reach $69.6 WTI crude oil must overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 at $69.2. The $69.6 level, if met, is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $70.1. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 and connects to $72.0 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a weeks-long range. Each time prices have been positioned to break higher or lower out of the range a reversal has taken place. This happened again today. The wave down from $72.41 fulfilled its $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target and favored an eventual test of its $65.6 equal to (1.00) target. Such a move would have resulted in a break lower out of the range. However, prices rallied today and challenged the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.51 at $70.1. This level held on a closing basis but today’s rise confirmed Monday’s inverted hammer and the wave up from $67.71 calls for a test of its $70.7 equal to target. This is also the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53. Closing above $71.7 will put WTI crude oil back in a position to attempt a break higher out of the range by closing above the $72.7 equal to target of this wave and the wave up from $66.32. The $72.7 objective is also in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.04 and the $72.41 confirmation point of a $66.4 double bottom.

Nonetheless, caution is still warranted because until the $71.51 swing high is overcome the wave down from $72.41 will have potential to extend to its $65.6 equal to target. Should the $70.1 level continue to hold and prices fall below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $67.71 at $69.3 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $68.7. Taking out $68.7 will warn that the move up is failing again. Settling below the $67.9 smaller than target of the wave down from $71.51 will confirm this is the case and put the odds back in favor of WTI crude oil falling to $66.4 and $65.6.