Crude Oil Price Forecast – April 21, 2020

Tag: brent

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

It has been an unusual few days for WTI crude oil. Negative prompt month May prices on April 20 increased bearish sentiment and weighed heavily on June WTI crude oil today. There are no reversal patterns that indicate the move down has ended. There is a modest chance that today’s accelerated move down will form a spike bottom. Even so, there is no technical or fundamental reason to expect a miraculous recovery in the coming days and even weeks. At a minimum, a larger test of resistance is expected before prices fall any lower.

June is now the prompt month contract and fell $6.50 before stalling. The decline took out the $11.7 and $8.1 targets mentioned briefly in yesterday’s update. The $8.1 objective was the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $37.15 and held on a closing basis. This suggests that this afternoon’s move up from $6.50 is a three-wave correction that will extend to at least $15.3 and likely $18.2 during the next few days. Closing above $18.2 will clear the way for $19.8 and possibly $23.0.

WTI Crude Oil – $1.00 Kase Bar

Volatility is expected to remain high for the next few days as the market sorts itself out. Expect to see violent and fast swings, initially up and then likely down. The caveat is that should a spike bottom form prices will surge higher tomorrow. Closing above $23.0 is unlikely but would suggest this is the case.

Immediate support is $11.0 and key support for the near-term is $9.4. Closing below $9.4 will call for $7.4 and then a new low of at least $4.5.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent fell as expected but the move down accelerated and reached a low of $17.51. The subsequent move up looks to be forming a three-wave correction that met its smaller than (0.618) target this afternoon. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of at least $21.3 and even $23.0 tomorrow. Settling above $23.0 would clear the way for a larger correction to $23.9 and possibly $25.9.

Support at $18.3 must hold for the move up to extend to $21.3 and higher tomorrow. Falling below $21.3 would invalidate the wave up from $17.51 that projects to the higher targets. This would also open the way for $17.1 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil briefly fell below $20.0 but held that psychologically important target on a closing basis. Support around $20.0 was stubborn and before the rise to $29.13 just over a week ago. The outlook remains bearish and prices are poised to challenge $19.6 and lower. Yet, given the recent strength of support around $20.0 a larger test of resistance will probably take place first.

WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar

Resistance at $21.7 is expected to hold and $23.0 is key for the near-term. Settling above $23.0 would call for a larger upward correction to $24.2 and possibly higher. This would also suggest that prices may be settling into a short-term trading range before falling to challenge the next major targets below $20.0.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s outlook remains bearish and the move down is poised to reach at least $28.9 tomorrow. This is a highly confluent wave projection that is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $24.52. Therefore, an upward correction is expected before Brent closes below $28.9 and falls to $28.0 and lower.

Brent Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar

As Brent falls toward $28.9, resistance at $30.9 is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near-term is $32.0. Settling above this would call for a larger upward correction to $32.8 and possibly $33.8. The $33.8 level is most important because a close above this would imply that near-term odds are shifting back in favor of a larger move up in the coming days and weeks.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil’s decline from $29.13 accelerated this afternoon and took out the $25.4 and $24.5 targets discussed in yesterday’s update. Based on the primary wave down from $29.13, the move is still poised to challenge the crucial $23.3 objective. This is near the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $19.27, and more importantly, the $23.34 swing low. Taking out $23.3 would invalidate the wave up from $19.27 that projects to $31.5 and higher. This would also put near-term odds in favor of falling to challenge $22.0 and lower.

Nonetheless, WTI met support around the $23.5 larger than (1.618) target of the sub-wave down from $28.24. Also, the small wave up from $23.54 met its smaller than (0.618) target, which suggests a test of the $25.0 equal to (1.00) target will probably take place first. This is near today’s midpoint and will likely hold.

WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar

Rising above $25.0 would call for an extended upward correction to $25.7, the larger than target and 38 percent retracement from $29.13. For the move down to extend to $23.3 and lower during the next day or so $25.7 must hold.

Closing above $25.7 would call for key near-term resistance at $27.1. This is the highest the wave up from $23.54 projects, is the 62 percent retracement from $29.13 and is the smaller than target of the sub-wave up from $23.34. Settling above $27.1 would shift odds back in favor of $28.5 and higher.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s move down from $35.0 still looks to be corrective but should reach at least $30.9 tomorrow. Falling below this will call for an extended correction to $29.7. This is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $28.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $36.29. For the move up to have any reasonable chance at extending during the next few days $29.7 must hold. Closing below this will clear the way for $28.9 and eventually $26.7.

Brent Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar

The small move up from $31.74 suggests Brent could test $33.4 first, but this level is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near-term is $34.2. Overcoming $34.2 would invalidate the recent waves down from $35.0 that project to $30.9 and lower. This would also shift odds back in favor of challenging $35.0 again, above which the next major objective is $36.1.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil leans negative. Today’s long upper shadow and close below $50.0 does not bode well for bulls. Even so, major support at $49.3, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $71.83 has held so far. Therefore, there is still a reasonable chance for a larger upward correction before falling to a new low.

The intra-day waves down from $52.2 met targets at the $49.42 swing low that connect to $48.7 and lower. In addition, the small waves down from $50.69 call for another test of $49.3. There is immediate support at $49.6 but $49.3 is key. A close below $49.3 will be long-term bearish and open the way for the next leg lower.

This is a tight call for the near-term though due to the importance of $49.3. Oversold daily and weekly momentum and intra-day Kase StatWare buy signals suggest the upward correction might extend first. Overcoming $50.6 early tomorrow will increase odds for key near-term resistance at $51.2. Closing above $51.2 would call for a larger test of resistance at $51.9 and possibly $52.2 during the next few days.

Brent Crude Oil

The outlook for Brent remains negative but a daily bullish Harami pattern, daily RSI divergence, and the wave formation up from $53.11 imply that a larger upward correction might unfold before prices fall to a new low.

Nevertheless, while $54.9 resistance holds the small wave formation down from $54.69 favors $53.7, which then connects to $53.2 and lower. Should Brent overcome $54.9, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $55.5. Settling above this would clear the way for $56.0 and higher during the next few days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil settled right at the $49.6 target. Support at $49.6 is highly confluent and may still prove to be a stalling point. However, given WTI fell to $49.66, rose to $51.55, then fell back to $49.6 at the end of the day implies that the move down will extend to at least $49.0 and likely $48.6 tomorrow. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the wave down from $51.55, respectively. Settling below $48.6 will call for the next major objective at $47.8.

Today’s inverted hammer suggests another test of resistance might take place soon. Initial resistance is $50.3 and then $51.0, the higher if which is expected to hold. Key resistance is $51.6, a close above which would call for $52.6 and possibly higher before the decline eventually continues.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move down is poised to extend and the next target is $53.6. Closing below this will clear the way for $52.9 and lower. A daily inverted hammer suggests another test of resistance might take place soon, but $55.0 is expected to hold. Key resistance is $55.7, a close above which would call for $56.3 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil became positive today, and although October did not settle above $69.8 it rose above that level late this afternoon. There is a lot of resistance near the upper limit of the $69.8 target, right around $70.0 still, so there is an outside chance the move up will stall early tomorrow. However, given today’s surge higher, and because prices have overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.4, any pullback will most likely be a corrective buying opportunity for bulls while today’s $68.4 midpoint holds.

The next objective is $70.4 and a close above this would call for $70.9 and eventually the next major objective of $71.5. This is the last target protecting October WTI’s $71.63 swing high. Therefore, settling above $71.5 would open the way for a new high of at least $72.0 this week.

Immediate support is $69.3 and key support for tomorrow is $68.4, which should hold. Settling below $68.4 would suggest today’s move up was based on weak external factors that could not support the move up. In that case, look for prices to challenge $67.9 and possibly the $67.33 intra-day swing low. A move below the latter would invalidate the wave up from $66.86 and shift odds to be solidly back in favor of a continued decline.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move up accelerated again today and the pattern up from $75.64 has unfolded as a five-wave formation that met its Wave V targets at $79.54 this afternoon. The move up is poised to continue and $79.9 and likely $80.5 should be challenged tomorrow.

That said, because the five-wave pattern met its target at $79.54 a corrective pullback might take place first. Such a move is expected to hold support at today’s $78.2 midpoint, which means the pullback will be a buying opportunity. However, a close below $78.2 would suggest the move up has stalled again and that another major test of support will take place over the next few days. Given today’s rise, this is doubtful.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil is trading in an extremely indecisive manner and appears to be waiting on external factors to feed its next move. However, based on the charts and quantitative factors, near-term odds favor a test of at least $68.7 and possibly $68.0 after today’s failed attempt to overcome $70.0 left another long upper shadow on the daily candlestick. The $68.0 target is an important wave projection, retracement, and the 50-day moving average so it is a probable stalling point, at least initially. Settling below $68.0 would open the way for the next leg lower to challenge $67.2 and $66.5.

That said, until prices fall below the $67.87 swing low, which is also in line with the $68.0 target, there is still a reasonable chance for the wave up from $66.92 to extend to $70.4. More recent waves show the connection to $70.4 is made through $69.6, so a close above this would substantially increase odds for a test of $70.4. Even so, key resistance and the gateway for a bullish outlook is $71.2, a level that is still expected to hold, for now.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move up today was a bit bolder than WTI’s but still stalled below $75.1, the 50-day moving average and last level protecting the $75.79 swing higher. The later move up from $74.14 also failed to overcome today’s high and the late pullback setup a wave that projects to $73.9 and lower. Tomorrow, look for a test of $73.9 before prices possibly attempt to reach $75.1 again. A move below $73.9 would call for $73.1, key near-term support, a close below which would clear the way for $72.5 and lower.

Resistance at $75.1 needs to hold on a closing basis for near-term odds to remain in favor of a deeper pullback. Otherwise, settling above $75.1 would call for $75.6 and $76.3. The latter is the gateway for a long-term bullish outlook as discussed in our weekly Commentary and is expected to hold.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI’s corrective wave formation still calls for $67.0. However, today’s high of $66.7 was in line with the upper trend line connecting the $65.69 and $66.24 swing highs. It is also becoming clear that the move up forms a bearish flag. Therefore, while there is still the threat of testing $67.0 and possibly $67.7 (confirmed double bottom’s target), near-term odds have shifted back in favor of a continued decline.

Tomorrow, look for a test of initial support at $65.8, a move below which would call for the flag’s $65.0 lower trend line to be challenged. Settling below $65.0 would be quite bearish and open the way for $64.1 and lower.

That said, a move above $66.5 before prices fall to $65.8 would call for $67.0 to be challenged. Resistance at $67.0 is expected to hold due to the confluence of wave projections and retracements at that level. Settling above $67.0 would call for $67.7 and possibly higher, though this would likely indicate a significant bullish shift in external factors.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s near-term outlook is still weaker than WTI’s and has more downside room to extend since WTI led the move down in late May. Brent’s wave down from $77.61 is in position to challenge at least $75.0 and likely $74.5 tomorrow. The latter is most important because it is the 50-day moving average, a close below which would call for a new low of at least $73.7 and eventually $73.1.

Resistance at $76.5 is expected to hold, though the key level for the near-term is $77.3. A close above $77.3 would call for the most important near-term resistance at $77.9 to be tested.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil’s trend remains bullish but is still showing signs of exhaustion. Daily and weekly momentum indicators are overbought and setup for bearish divergence, the weekly candlesticks continue to form long upper shadows, and before yesterday’s rise to a new high the daily chart formed a series of spinning tops, a shooting star, and an evening star. The challenge is that reversal patterns like these have been set up for the past few weeks or continue to form, but there has been no follow-through to confirm the patterns.

Today’s pullback and test of yesterday’s $71.9 midpoint provides another opportunity for WTI crude oil prices to follow-through on a much-needed correction. The small waves down from $72.9 call for a test of Monday’s $71.5 open, a close below which would call for $70.9 and possibly lower.

Even so, relative odds (based on the number of times a target is found within our analysis) indicate $70.9 will probably hold and that the move up should extend to $73.2 soon. A move above $72.6 before $71.5 is met would shift near-term odds back in favor of $73.2. This target has the highest relative odds, and due to its confluence is another potential stalling point for WTI. Settling above $73.2 would open the way for $74.4 and higher.

With all factors considered, look for a test of at least $71.5 and possibly $70.9 tomorrow. Support at $70.9 should hold and until proven otherwise the move up will likely extend to $73.2. Therefore, at this point, any pullback will likely be corrective and could provide a buying opportunity for traders that have recently taken profit or missed the opportunity to add to long positions Monday.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil formed a double top at $80.5 and today’s shooting star reversal pattern setup calls for a test of at least $78.9 tomorrow. A close below this would confirm the shooting and open the way for a test of the double top’s $78.1 confirmation point. This is key support for the near-term, a close below which would call for an extended downward correction to $77.2 and possibly lower (the double top’s target is $75.7).

Brent Crude Oil - Double Top
Brent Crude Oil – Double Top

That said, reversal patterns like the double top and shooting star have been set up repeatedly and failed during the past few weeks. In addition, relative odds indicate that any move down right now will most likely be corrective and that eventually, prices should rise to $81.6. For now, though, $80.0 should hold and key resistance is $80.5. A close above $80.5 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a continued rise to $81.6.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Late last week, June WTI crude oil broke higher out of a daily bullish flag. This week’s crude oil price forecast indicated there was still a crucial target at $70.1, but this objective was overcome with relative ease Monday. Today’s corrective pullback stalled at $67.63 before settling the day at $69.06. This was just above the upper trend line of the bullish daily flag, and this afternoon prices are already nearly $1.00 higher and have overcome the key 62 percent retracement of the decline from $70.84. Therefore, the outlook remains bullish and the move up is still poised to extend.

The wave formations up from $67.63 indicate WTI should challenge at least $70.6 and likely $71.1 tomorrow. This afternoon’s bullish sentiment (which is purportedly based on external factors) could also drive prices to $71.7 and even $72.8, especially if prices rise above $71.1 early.

WTI Crude Oil - Daily Bullish Flag
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Bullish Flag

That said, when external factors and bullish sentiment are driving the market prices tend to become over exuberant and can overshoot reasonable objectives. While $71.1 and $72.8 make technical sense for the near-term, anything above $72.8 without a reasonable pullback first would warrant caution of a spike type scenario that could reverse very quickly.

For now, look for support at $68.6 to most likely hold with the key threshold at $67.9. A close below the latter would indicate the move up has failed and would open the way for a larger downward correction to $66.8 and lower.

Brent Crude Oil Forecast

Although Brent formed a bearish daily hanging man, prices have risen over $1.00 this afternoon after settling at $74.85. The wave formation up from $73.1 is poised to reach at least $76.8 and likely $77.8 tomorrow. A close above the latter will open the way for $78.6 and $79.9.

That said, the bullish sentiment driving prices higher this afternoon (see WTI’s comments above) could push prices too high too fast, causing a spike type scenario that could quickly reverse. Therefore, caution is warranted on any move above $79.9 over the next few days without a reasonable pullback first.

For now, support at $74.2 should hold, though prices will have to drop below the $73.07 swing low to indicate the move up has failed. In this unlikely case, look for a larger downward correction to $71.7 and possibly $70.8.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.