WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil took out $44.6 and fell to challenge support around $43.9. This lower objective, which is adjusted to $43.8 for tomorrow, is a highly confluent and crucial wave projection and retracement. Another attempted test of $43.8 is expected. However, settling below $43.8 might prove to be a challenge because the decline from $46.26 is most likely corrective and forms a bullish flag that should break higher during the next few days.

Nevertheless, taking out $43.8 will negate the flag and clear the way for $43.3 and possibly $42.8. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the primary wave down from $46.26.

That said, the long-term outlook for WTI is bullish, and as stated, the decline from $46.26 will most likely prove to be a correction of the move up from $34.04. Furthermore, should WTI overcome $44.9 before taking out $43.8 look for a test of key near-term resistance at the $45.8 intra-day swing high. Overcoming $45.8 will invalidate the wave down from $46.26 that calls for $43.8 and lower and will confirm a break higher out of the bullish flag. This will clear the way for a test of crucial resistance at $46.4.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil fell to challenge support at $46.8 as called for. The decline from $49.0 is most likely corrective and forms a bullish flag that should break higher in the coming days. However, the primary wave down from $49.0 now calls for a test of $46.4 first. Closing below this tomorrow will negate the flag and clear the way for $45.7 and possibly $45.2 instead.

For now, Brent is expected to hold $47.7 as the move down extends toward $46.4. Overcoming $47.7 will call for key near-term resistance at $48.3. Rising above this will invalidate the wave down from $49.0 that calls for $46.4 and lower and will confirm a break higher out of the bullish flag.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil has rallied as called for in this week’s forecast and yesterday’s update. Today’s move up was more aggressive than anticipated but fulfilled a confluent target around $45.1. So far, this has proved to be a stalling point. Nonetheless, the decline from today’s $45.2 high forms a bullish flag on the intra-day charts. A deeper test of support might take place early tomorrow, but odds now favor a move to the next major objective and a bullish decision point at $45.4. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $26.22, a close above which will confirm a long-term bullish outlook and a resumption of the uptrend that began in late April.

Nevertheless, after such a large single day move up WTI might pull back a bit on profit taking before rising much higher. Moreover, $45.4 is a crucial objective and there is also a tremendous amount of resistance between $46.0 and $46.5. Therefore, once the $45.4 target is fulfilled a reasonably significant test of support should take place before prices rise above $46.5. For now, support at $44.0 will likely hold and $42.8 is key support for the near-term.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for Brent crude oil is firmly bearish after settling above the $46.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $29.35 today. This confirms a long-term bullish outlook and resumes the uptrend that began in late April. The move up is now poised to reach at $48.6, $49.1, and possibly $50.0. The $48.6 target is highly confluent but $50.0 is most important. Another reasonably significant test of support is expected once $48.6 is met and before $50.0 is overcome.

As the move up extends toward $48.6 and possibly higher today’s $46.9 midpoint is expected to hold. Key near-term support is $45.9. Settling below this would indicate a significant test of support is underway before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The focus of the WTI analysis is switched to the January 2021 contract today because December will expire on Friday, November 20.

The outlook for WTI remains clouded as the market is sorting through a multitude of external factors, most importantly COVID-19 related news, that seems to shift on a day-to-day basis. January WTI is trading in a very choppy, and likely corrective, decline from last week’s $43.33 swing high. However, as stated in yesterday’s update, for the near-term, without further help from external factors there is more downside risk than upside potential. Therefore, near-term odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

Falling below $40.9 will clear the way for a test of $40.4, the smaller than (0.618) target of the newly formed primary wave down from $43.33. Settling below $40.4 will clear the way for $39.8 and eventually the $39.4 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, trading is expected to continue to be erratic for the interim. Based on the wave up from $40.33, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $42.1 and possibly $42.9 first. The $42.9 level is expected to hold. Closing above this would reflect another bullish shift in near-term sentiment and call for $43.5 and then the next major objective at $44.1.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

January Brent is trading in a choppy, and most likely corrective, range. Even so, the newly formed primary wave down from $45.3 fulfilled its $43.02 smaller than (0.618) target when Brent fell to $43.08 today. This is bearish for the near-term and calls for test of the $41.9 equal to (1.00) target before the move up from $36.4 continues. Falling below $43.0 will call for $42.5 and eventually $41.9.

That said, the late move up from $43.08 might test $44.1 first. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $42.63 and connects to $44.8 as the equal to target. Rising to $44.8 will dampen odds for a decline to $41.9 during the next few days. Nonetheless, $44.8 is expected to hold. Closing above this would shift near-term odds in favor of rising to $45.8 and higher.This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil is firmly bullish and the move up is poised to challenge crucial resistance at $42.0. This is a highly confluent wave projection, retracement, and swing high. Overcoming $42.0 will invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had called for $32.0 and lower during the past few weeks. Rising above $42.0 will also confirm a long-term bullish reversal is unfolding, clearing the way for $42.8 and likely $44.9.

Nevertheless, when the outlook for WTI has been most positive in recent months the move up has stalled near $42.0 and turned lower to challenge support again. There is no evidence that this will be the case again, but caution is warranted.

Should WTI take out $40.8 before overcoming $42.0 look for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is expected to hold. Key support is $38.8. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $37.06 and the 38 percent retracement from $33.64. Closing below $38.8 would imply that another major test of support is underway before the move up attempts to overcome $42.0 again.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for Brent is quite bullish after settling above the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $36.40 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $47.31. This afternoon’s post-settlement rally has overcome the $43.99 swing high and the move up is now poised to test $44.6. This is the last level protecting the $44.67 swing high. Closing above this will clear the way for $45.3 and likely $46.4 during the next few days.

Initial support is $43.1, a move below which will call for $42.4. Support at $42.4 is expected to hold. Key support and the barrier to a bearish near-term outlook is $41.2. Settling below this would shift near-term odds in favor of testing $39.9 and possibly lower before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil has adopted a bullish near-term outlook after settling above $37.7, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and the 50 percent retracement from $41.90. This is also last week’s midpoint.

The move up is now poised to challenge a crucial near-term target at $38.8. This is the 50 percent retracement from $44.33 and the 62 percent retracement from $41.90. Closing above $38.8 would put odds in favor of challenging $40.2 and possibly another test of $42.0. The $42.0 objective defined the upper end of the range that December WTI traded in from early September until late last week.

That said, the move up from $33.64 lacks a wave structure that can sustain a larger move up. There are no reversal patterns or signals as of this afternoon, but a test of support is anticipated before WTI rises much higher.

Should WTI turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $36.5 and then $36.0. Key near-term sport is $35.3. Closing below this will call for another test of $34.8, the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $44.33, which has held on a closing basis so far.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent tested and held $40.0 on a closing basis today. This was near the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $47.31. Even so, the move up is poised to continue because today’s close above last Thursday’s open confirmed Friday’s bullish high wave candlestick reversal pattern. Today’s move up also confirmed daily bullish KaseCD and KasePO divergences. Therefore, odds favor a continued rise to $40.8, a crucial near-term objective that connects to $41.5 and $42.9.

Nevertheless, Brent is due for a test of support before rising much higher. Holding $40.0 suggests such a move might take place early tomorrow. Support at $38.6 is expected to hold and $37.4 is key. Settling below $37.4 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a larger decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI remains bearish. Although WTI bounced today and settled above yesterday’s midpoint, the move up failed to close above yesterday’s open and held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9 at $39.7 on a closing basis. Also, the wave formation up from $38.28 stalled just below its larger than (1.618) target and this afternoon’s post-settlement decline has challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $38.28. Finally, yesterday’s close below $38.8, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $42.02, has put odds in favor of testing the $36.8 equal to (1.00) target. This is in line with the double bottom that formed between the $37.11 and $36.93 swing lows. Therefore, closing below $36.8 will take out the double bottom and clear the way for a much more significant test of support.

That said, each time WTI has looked most bearish (or bullish) since early September the move has stalled and WTI has oscillated within the range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0. Also, given today’s close above yesterday’s midpoint, there is an outside chance for a larger test of resistance before WTI falls to challenge $36.8. Closing above $39.7 will call for key resistance at $40.5. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9. Settling above $40.9 will shift near-term odds back in favor of rising to $41.4 and eventually $42.0 where the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom would be tested.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for Brent is bearish after today’s move up held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $41.5. The post-settlement decline implies that today’s move up is corrective of the recent decline. Tomorrow, look for a test of $40.2, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $44.3. Settling below this will clear the way for $39.4 and then $38.6.

Resistance at $41.5 should continue to hold. Closing above this will call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $42.3. Settling above $42.3 is doubtful but would shift odds in favor of $43.2 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. For the past few weeks, December WTI has been stuck in a wide range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0 and formed a double bottom around $37.0. Last week, prices oscillated within a smaller range between approximately $39.4 and $41.7. This was in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and was just below the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom.

Today, December WTI broke higher out of this small recent range but stalled at $41.90. The break higher was bullish for the outlook though, and the move up is poised to reach $42.3 during the next couple of days. This is the most confluent objective on the chart. Setting above $42.3 will establish a bullish uptrend because this will confirm the double bottom, which targets $47.0, and also invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had taken out its $37.6 smaller than (0.618) target a few weeks ago.

With that said, the late throwback from $41.90 back into the recent range between $39.4 and $41.7 reflects uncertainty and suggests a test of $40.5 might take place first. Falling below $40.5 will take out a few of the smaller waves that call for $42.3 and higher. This will also call for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.93 and is expected to hold. Closing below $40.0 will call for key near-term support at $39.4, a close below which will shift odds in favor of testing $38.8 and possibly lower.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent rose a bit higher today but its move up has been more hesitant than WTI’s. Nevertheless, the decline from $43.57 forms a corrective range that should break higher soon. Also, $43.3 was met, so the wave formations now call for a test of $43.8. This then connects to $44.4 and higher.

The $43.3 target was quite important for the near-term outlook, so the throwback from this objective late this afternoon is not surprising. Support at $42.2 is expected to hold and $41.4 is key for the near-term. Settling below $41.4 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in external factors and call for $40.5 and possibly lower in the coming days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The quantitative outlook for WTI crude oil has become muddled during the past couple of days. Even so, longer-term odds will continue to lean bearish while the $41.72 swing high holds. A deeper test of support is expected tomorrow but given the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish technical factors, there is a good chance that WTI will settle into a trading range for a few days while it sorts through external factors.

WTI crude oil’s post-settlement decline has formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick and drove prices back below the 100-day moving average. Although the daily candlestick won’t reflect this due to the $40.67 settlement, the decline is negative for tomorrow’s forecast and calls for a deeper test of support.

Additionally, this afternoon’s decline also confirmed an intra-day double top between the $40.83 and $40.86 swing highs that was confirmed by the move below the $40.15 swing low. The target for this small pattern is $39.5, but the more important confluence point is $39.2. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.63 and connects to $38.3, the 62 percent retracement. For the move up to have a reasonable chance at continuing during the next few days $38.3 must hold. Closing below $38.3 will call for $37.7 and then $37.0, the latter of which is the barrier to a much more bearish outlook.

With that said, the challenge is that today’s move up overcame the $40.80 swing high and invalidated all of the subwaves down from $41.72 that called for a bigger decline. More importantly, WTI settled above the $39.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $36.58. This implies that WTI might rise to challenge the $41.8 equal to (1.00) target. This would take out the $41.72 swing high and invalidate the larger wave down from $44.05 that settled below its $37.10 smaller than target on Friday. This wave calls for a decline into the mid-to-low $30s. Therefore, this is the cause of what will likely be become a tug-of-war between bulls and bears during the next few days.

Should WTI overcome $40.5 early tomorrow look for a test of $41.2 and possibly $41.8. As stated, rising to $41.8 would invalidate the primary wave down from $44.05 and shift longer-term odds in favor of a continued rise.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil stalled at the 100-day moving average and formed a double top around $43.84. This pattern was confirmed by this afternoon’s decline below $42.12 and calls for a test of $41.3 tomorrow. This is near the double top’s target and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $38.79. Settling below $41.3 will call for $40.3 and possibly $39.4. The $39.4 objective is most important but will likely hold for now because it looks as though Brent will settle into a trading range for a few days before committing to a longer-term directional move.

Nevertheless, should Brent overcome $43.0, look for a test of $43.9 and then $44.5. Rising to $44.5 would take out the $44.3 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $46.99 that took out its $39.91 smaller than target on Friday. Overcoming $44.3 would strongly imply that the move down is over and that a longer-term bullish recovery is underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil’s move up from $38.87 stalled short of the $41.1 objective and finally proved to be corrective of the decline from $41.72. WTI took out the $39.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and stalled marginally below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. The move down might become a grind during the next few days, but odds favor a test of the $38.0 equal to (1.00) target. Closing below this would then call for the key objective at $37.1. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the bigger wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.1 would clear the way for much lower prices and a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, because the move down stalled at the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 and $39.0 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance early tomorrow. Initial resistance at $39.7 is expected to hold and key resistance is $40.5. Settling above $40.5 would shift near-term odds back in favor of making a push toward $41.6. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $36.58 and the barrier for renewed a bullish outlook.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.88, confirmed the $43.07/$43.03 pseudo double top, and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $44.30. Brent is now poised to extend to $40.3, a close below which will call for a test of key support and the barrier to a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks at $39.9.

With that said, the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $43.07 held today. Therefore, there is a modest chance for a test of $42.2 before taking out $40.9. Key near-term resistance is $43.0. Closing above this will call for a test of $43.6, which then connects to $45.3 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for November WTI crude oil leans bullish after holding the 100-day moving average for the second straight day and holding the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 on a closing basis. This is a tight call though, and today’s long-legged doji reflects uncertainty headed into tomorrow.

Nevertheless, the wave formation up from $38.87 is poised to test its $40.1 smaller than (0.618) target. This then connects to a key objective at $40.6 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $40.6 objective is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.72. Settling above $40.6 will clear the way for $41.2 and then $42.1. The $42.1 objective is most important because this is the smaller than target of the primary wave up from $36.58. Settling above $42.1 will put odds firmly in favor of higher prices.

With that said, the late move up from $39.19 stalled near the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $40.27. Also, the choppy nature of today’s move up from $38.87 implies that today’s price action might be corrective of the move down from $41.72. Should WTI fall below $39.1, look for a test of crucial support at $38.5. This is the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. Settling below this will significantly dampen odds for a continued rise and would call for key near-term support at $37.2. This is in line with the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.2 would confirm a bearish outlook for WTI in the coming weeks.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil settled below the 100-day moving average for the second straight day. This was bearish for the outlook, but today’s long-legged doji reflects uncertainty after Monday’s decline. Also, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.3 at $41.0 has held and the wave up from $40.96 is poised to challenge its $42.0 smaller than (0.618) target. Rising above this will call for $42.5, which then connects to $43.2 and higher.

Conversely, the move up from $40.96 has been rather choppy and may prove to be a correction. Should Brent take out $41.0 look for a test of $40.3. Settling below $40.3 would call for another test of key support and the barrier to a longer-term bearish outlook at $39.3.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.