WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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The outlook for WTI crude oil is bearish for the coming weeks. The September contract settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.36 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23 on Monday. This implies that the move up from $72.23 is complete and the wave down from $84.36 now favors an eventual test of its $71.5 equal to (1.00) target.
Today, prices fell to challenge the $74.7 smaller than target of the wave down from $82.27 and the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23. The $74.7 target held on a closing basis, so there is a modest chance for a test of resistance tomorrow. However, there are no bullish patterns or confirmed technical signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of $74.3, a close below which will call for $73.7, $73.2, and the next confluent target at $72.3 in the coming days.
Should prices rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $75.5 and then $76.0. The $76.0 level is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near term is $76.6. This threshold is in line with the 21 percent retracement from $83.58 and the 200-day moving average. Settling above $76.6 would shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $77.0 and higher.
