Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 16, 2024

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil settled below the $81.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.52 and the 20-day moving average today. The move down is likely a correction but is now poised to test at least $80.0. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $84.52 and 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44. A normal correction will hold $80.0, so settling below this objective may prove to be a challenge. Nonetheless, a sustained close below $80.0 will open the way for $79.5, $79.1, and then another major target at $78.6.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to fail before reaching $80.0. Even so, the move up from today’s $80.22 low could extend to test today’s $81.3 midpoint first. This level will likely hold. Overcoming $81.3 would call for WTI crude oil to test of key near-term resistance at $81.9. This is in line with today’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $84.52. Settling above $81.9 would warn that the move down is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $82.4 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $82.9.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.