WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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March WTI crude oil rose to test resistance today but failed to close above the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 and Monday’s midpoint. The decline from $79.39 has been due for a test of resistance that will form the corrective leg of a primary wave that can continue to drive prices lower. The rise from $72.38 is likely that move.
Given today’s rise is probably a correction, the outlook for the coming days remains bearish. Taking out $72.6 will call for a test of the 200-day moving average at $72.2 and then the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $63.65 at $71.5.
Nevertheless, there is a reasonable chance for the corrective move up from $72.38 to extend first. Overcoming $74.1 early tomorrow will call for a test of Monday’s open and the 20-day moving average at $74.5. This connects to the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $75.1. A normal correction will hold $75.1. Closing above this will warn that the move down is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $76.0 and possibly $76.7 within the next few days.
