WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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March WTI crude oil fell to test the $70.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $79.39 at $70.6. Prices stalled just above this important objective at $70.67 and then bounced to test and hold the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $75.18 at $73.5. Today’s long-legged doji and the failure to close below the 200-day moving average at $72.1 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $63.65 and the 50-day moving average at $71.5 reflects uncertainty.
Even so, the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish heading into tomorrow. Taking out $71.6 will call for another test of $70.6, a close below which will call for $70.1, and then a test of a long-term bearish decision point at $69.6.
However, the intra-day pullback from $73.35 may be forming a bullish flag. Falling below $72.1 will negate the pattern. Otherwise, settling above $73.5 will confirm a break higher and call for a push to test $74.1 and then key near-term resistance at $75.2. The $75.2 level is in line with the $75.18 corrective swing high of the primary wave down from $79.39. Overcoming $75.2 will invalidate this wave and shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $76.1.
