WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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WTI crude oil continues to trade in a wide and indecisive range. Prices rallied on Monday and settled above the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $78.54 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $70.88. This suggests that a test of this wave’s $79.1 equal to (1.00) target will take place. Such a move would put WTI above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.62, which would also be bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks.
However, today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 200-day moving average was bearish for the near term. This move also suggest that prices will remain bound within the wide range between $71.2 and $79.1 while traders wait on more fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical information.
Key near-term support at $75.2 held, but a test of this level is expected early tomorrow. Settling below $75.2 will call for $74.5, $73.8, and possibly a test of the $73.2 smaller than target of the wave down from $78.54 in the coming days. Closing below $73.2 would confirm a bearish outlook and open the way for another attempt to close below a long-term bearish decision point at $71.2.
That said, the pullback from $77.60 might still prove to be a simple correction should $75.2 hold. Overcoming $76.8 will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $77.8. Settling above $77.8 will put the near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $78.7 and likely $79.1.
