Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
July natural gas settled below the crucial smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.161 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.518 at $2.76. This was quite bearish for the outlook because the move down now favors a test of the $2.52 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.161. This is also the confirmation point of a double top that formed around $3.16. Settling below the $2.70 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.159 will increase the odds for a test of $2.52 in the coming days.
There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching at least $2.70. Even so, should prices rise before taking out $2.70 look for today’s $2.82 midpoint to hold. Overcoming this will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.90.
