Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
The outlook for natural gas in the coming weeks is bullish after settling above a crucial $3.08 resistance level on Tuesday. However, a double top has formed at $3.16 and today’s pullback shaped a daily bearish dark cloud cover candlestick reversal pattern. The $2.99 confirmation point of the dark cloud cover held, so the move down from $3.159 might be another short-lived correction. Nevertheless, the double top and dark cloud cover indicate a deeper test of support will probably take place during the next day or so before the move up extends.
Tomorrow, look for a test of $2.99, a move below which will call for $2.91. A simple correction should hold $2.91 because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $3.159 and 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.518. Settling below $2.91 would call for an extended correction to challenge $2.84 and possibly a key objective at $2.76.
That said, should prices rally back above $3.09 look for a test of $3.18. Settling above $3.18 would negate the $3.16 double top and today’s dark cloud cover. This would shift the near-term odds back in favor of natural gas rising to $3.23 and higher in the coming days.
