Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
December gold rose above the $2708.7 high and finally settled above the $2702 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8. The move up is now poised to challenge the $2720 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2618.8 tomorrow. Settling above $2720 will call for confluent wave projections at $2732, $2746, and $2760 to be challenged in the coming days.
There are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall before reaching at least $2720 and likely $2732. Even so, now that prices have risen to a new high there is potential for daily bearish divergences on the KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic momentum oscillators. However, to confirm any of these divergence signals both price and momentum must form swing highs before momentum rises to a new high too.
Should gold turn lower without warning look for initial support at $2690. Falling below this will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2618.8 at $2677. This level is expected to hold. Key support for the outlook in the coming days is the 62 percent retracement at $2655. Settling below this will call for gold to take out the $2654.4 swing low, thus invalidating the recent wave up from $2618.8 that projects to $2720 and higher.
