Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold rallied and stalled just above the $2221 target discussed in Wednesday’s analysis at $2225.3 before pulling back. A daily long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that a deeper test of support will likely take place before the uptrend extends to the next major target at $2246. This is a tight call, but near-term odds favor a test of the $2175 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2225.3. Closing below this will call for the corrective move down to extend to $2165, $2149, and possibly $2138 in the coming days.
Nevertheless, prices rose at the end of the day and may challenge the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2225.3 at $2203 early tomorrow. This is also the prior swing high. Closing above $2203 would strongly suggest that the move down from $2225.3 is complete. Settling above the $2215 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2149.2 will confirm this is the case and put the odds in favor of gold rising to $2246.
