Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
Gold is hovering just above a bearish decision point at $1824. This objective is split between the 200-day moving average, the $1824.8 swing low, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1879.8, and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2. Settling back below the 200-day moving average would imply that the corrective move up from $1767.2 is complete. Closing below $1807, the confluence point between the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1879.8 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2, will confirm this and clear the way for $1780 and lower.
Nevertheless, while the $1824.8 swing low holds the initial wave up from $1767.2 that met its smaller than target at $1879.8 will continue to call for its $1910 equal to target to be fulfilled. More importantly, rising to $1910 would overcome key resistance at $1896. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1973.3, the 38 percent retracement from $2099.2, and the smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave up from $1767.2. Settling above $1896 would suggest the larger scale move down might be complete and would call for gold to push toward targets well above $1910.
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