Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
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December gold has been trading in a range between approximately $2400 and $2430 since mid-July. Prices are trading near the top of the range and a break higher out of the range is ultimately expected.
Gold will need to close above key resistance at $2530 to confirm that a break higher is finally underway. Such a move will open the way for $2560 and $2581. Overcoming the $2514 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8 will clear the way for a test of $2530 within the next few days.
The pullback from $2519.7 looks like a correction based on today’s trading. However, the move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2519.7 and should test the $2464 equal to (1.00) target first. The move up from $2469.2 also held the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2519.7 at $2500.
Closing below $2464 now looks as though it will be a challenge but would call for a test of key near-term support at $2447. This is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2519.7, the smaller than target of the wave down from $2522.5, and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2403.8. Settling below this would put the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to test the $2401 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2522.5.
