Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook
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Gold rose to test the $2350 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 before pulling back again. This implies that the wave up from $2304.6 will test its $2366 equal to (1.00) target. However, the pullback from $2350.9 took out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2324.8. Therefore, odds lean in favor of taking out the $2324.8 swing low to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.6 at $2322. This will invalidate the wave up from $2304.6 that projects to $2366 and higher. This will also call for a test of $2301 and then the $2283 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2448.8.
Nevertheless, while the $2324.8 swing low holds there is still a reasonable chance for a test of $2366. Closing above this will call for key resistance and larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 at $2400 to be challenged. The $2400 level is also the 62 percent retracement from $2448.8 and confirmation point of the bullish daily candlesticks that formed Tuesday and Wednesday. Settling above $2400 would imply that the corrective move down is complete, shifting the odds in favor of gold rising to $2433 and higher.
