WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rallied again today as called for in the weekly analysis and met the initial $60.8 target. A daily long-legged doji formed, but the pullback from $60.95 on the intra-day charts looks corrective. WTI is still due for a deeper test of support, but with diesel and gasoline prices looking strong again, WTI will be hard-pressed to fall. With these factors considered, near-term odds favor a continued rise and a close above $61.0 will call for a test of $61.9 and possibly $63.2 in the coming days. The $63.2 target is the next most probable stalling point because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from March’s $27.66 contract low.

That said, weekly and daily momentum oscillators remain overbought and the $61.0 objective is an important near-term threshold because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary subwave up from $35.0. Should $61.0 hold and prices fall, closing below $58.7 will complete today’s long-legged doji and closing below $57.9 will confirm the pattern. Such a move is doubtful during the next few days. Even so, this would be an early indication that a much more significant test of support is finally underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose as expected today and challenged the $58.5 target discussed in Monday’s analysis. The move up is now poised to reach a crucial bullish decision point at $59.1. This is the intermediate (1.382) target of the March contract’s primary wave up from $27.66 and the equal to (1.00) target of the largest subwave up from $46.3. Overbought weekly and daily momentum oscillators, bearish divergence setups, and today’s hanging man all warn that the move up is nearing exhaustion. Therefore, $59.1 is a probable stalling point. However, settling above $59.1 for a few days will clear the way for a test of $60.0 and eventually a push toward the uptrend’s next major objective at $63.2. The $63.2 objective is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $27.66.

As mentioned, today’s hanging man and the weekly and daily momentum oscillators warn that the move up will probably stall soon. The most probable stalling point is $59.1. However, as of this afternoon, there are no confirmed bearish patterns or signals that call for a significant test of support before reaching $59.1. Initial support at $57.7 is expected to hold tomorrow and $57.1 is key. Settling below $57.1 will confirm today’s hanging man and clear the way for a test of $56.0 and possibly lower before the uptrend fulfills the $59.1 objective.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose as called for in Monday’s daily update and stalled just below the $55.4 target. The move up is still poised to extend and it now looks as though the rise from $51.64 is forming a small five-wave pattern that targets $56.5. This is the XC (2.764) target of Wave 1 and the smaller than (0.618) target of Wave 3. The $56.5 target is a potential stalling point, but any pullback from that level will likely prove to be a three-wave correction. This is because the larger wave structures favor $57.6 and higher upon a sustained close above $55.5.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Even so, the daily RSI is overbought again and the KasePO, RSI, and Stochastic are setup for bearish divergence signals. To confirm these signals WTI will have to form both price and momentum peaks during the next few days, which is currently doubtful.

Nonetheless, should WTI take out $54.0 before rising much higher look for a test of key near-term support at $53.0. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $51.64. Settling below $53.0 would reflect a bearish shift in the external factors that have driven WTI higher during the last few days and call for a deeper test of support with thresholds at $52.2 and $51.3.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose to challenge $53.3 as called for in yesterday’s update. The move up stalled near this threshold and began to pull back again. So far, the move down from $53.25 has retraced just over 38 percent of the move up from $51.44. This is still not a clear call higher or lower, but based on today’s price action, odds lean in favor of testing $51.8 tomorrow. Closing below this will clear the way for $50.6, a confluent wave projection, retracement, and the target for the intra-day triple top that formed around $53.9.

Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the move down from $53.94 will prove to be corrective of the larger scale uptrend. Furthermore, because $52.56, the 38 percent retracement if the rise from $51.44, held on a closing basis there is still a good chance that the pullback from $52.35 is a simple correction of the wave formation up from $51.44. Should WTI overcome $53.3 look for a test of the $53.94 swing high. Settling above this will clear the way for $54.8 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil initially fell today but stalled at $51.81 before rising to $53.18 where the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $53.94 was challenged. Even so, this level and Friday’s midpoint held on a closing basis. Also, Friday’s bearish engulfing line and the double top around $53.9 are still intact. Therefore, odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues. Closing below $52.3 will confirm the double top and clear the way for WTI to fall toward the pattern’s $50.6 target in the coming days.

Nevertheless, WTI’s uptrend has been resilient in recent weeks. Any recent attempt at a significant test of support has been quickly negated and any reversal patterns have been wiped out shortly after forming. Today’s move up suggests this might be another case in which overly bullish sentiment will win out over bearish fundamental and technical factors. Should WTI overcome $53.13 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $53.9. Closing above $53.9 will wipe out the double top and bearish engulfing line and clear the way for at least $54.5 and probably higher before another attempt at a significant pullback.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rallied again today and negated the hanging man and bearish momentum signals that formed Monday. The daily KasePO and RSI momentum oscillators are overbought, the KaseCD and MACD are setup for bearish divergence, and the wave structure is due for a test of support after overcoming the $52.1 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $27.22. However, the challenge is that each time bearish patterns or signals form WTI rises and wipes out the negative technical factors. The rate at which prices are rising is unsustainable and a significant test of support is expected soon. However, as of this afternoon, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall, so the near-term outlook remains bullish.

The $53.5 target is the most confluent objective and the next logical stalling point based on the waves and subwaves up from $34.50. Most importantly, this is the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $34.50. Upon a close above $53.5, the next probable stalling point is the $55.4 larger than (1.618) target.

As stated, there are no bearish patterns or signals as of this afternoon that call for the move up to stall tomorrow. Nevertheless, caution is warranted due to the overbought state of the daily RSI and KasePO. Should WTI take out $52.7 look for a test of key near-term support at $52.1. Settling below $52.1 will open the way for a deeper test of support during the next few days with thresholds at $51.6 and $50.9.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil shook off yesterday’s decline with ease, reflecting a bullish shift in external factors. Although $50.0 held on a closing basis, the close above the highly confluent $49.6 objective clears the way for $51.0 and $52.1 during the next few days. Both are confluent wave projections but $52.1 is most important because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from the February contract low of $27.22.

With that said, the wave formation up from $34.50 is due for a correction and daily momentum oscillators are either overbought or setup for bearish divergence. Therefore, a significant test of support is expected once $52.1 is met, and before this objective is overcome on a sustained closing basis.

Nevertheless, as the move up extends toward $52.1 in the coming days, support at $49.1 will likely hold and $48.3 is key for the near-term. Settling below $48.3, which is near today’s open and in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $47.18, would shift near-term odds in favor of $47.8 and possibly $47.2. Closing below $47.2 would call for the move down to take out the $47.18 swing low and signal that a significant test of support is finally underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil remains bullish. WTI rose to challenge $47.6 as expected today. However, the move up stalled at $47.73 and might be forming a small double top with the $47.74 swing high. This is doubtful though because the waves up from $44.95 and $45.69 have overcome their smaller than targets and favor a continued rise to at least $47.9 and likely $48.7 during the next few days. The $48.7 target is the most confluent objective and a potential stalling point. Settling above $48.7 will call for the next major objective and bullish decision point at $49.5.

Nevertheless, should WTI take out initial support at $47.0 before overcoming the $47.74 swing high the odds that a double top has formed will increase. This would also call for a test of crucial near-term support at $46.5. Settling below this will shift odds in favor of challenging $45.7, which is in line with the $45.69 swing low and the confirmation point of the double top. Closing below $45.7 will confirm the double top and call for WTI to fall toward the pattern’s $43.6 target.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, a confirmed daily RSI divergence and daily bearish doji suggest the pullback from $46.68 should extend a bit lower before the move up continues. Today’s decline to $45.14 fulfilled the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $46.68. The subsequent move up to $45.93 has been lackluster so far. Another test of $46.1 is expected, a close below which will clear the way for $44.4 and possibly $43.9 during the next few days.

With that said, this has become a very tight call because of a small intra-day double bottom that formed between today’s $45.14 and $45.16 swing lows. The wave up from $45.14 has overcome its smaller than (0.618) target, which implies that the double bottom’s $45.93 confirmation point will likely be challenged early tomorrow. Closing above $45.93 will confirm the double bottom and clear the way for $46.4 and possibly $46.9.

Resistance at $46.4, which the 62 percent retracement of the decline from January’s $58.92 swing high is expected to hold. Nonetheless, $46.9 is most important for the near-term outlook because this is in line with the double bottom’s target and the smaller than target of the wave up from $43.92. Settling above $46.9 would confirm that the corrective pullback is over and would open the way for the next leg of the move up to unfold.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.