Crude Oil Price Forecast – March 26, 2024

Category: Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Last week’s shooting star, confirmed daily KaseCD and MACD divergences, and a daily PeakOut (overbought) signal indicate a deeper test of support should take place. However, Monday’s rally and move above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $83.12 dampened the odds for an extended correction.

Nevertheless, Tuesday’s move down fulfilled the $81.5 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $82.48. Furthermore, with gasoline and diesel prices falling WTI will probably be hard-pressed to settle above key resistance at $82.6 during the next few days. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish and closing below $81.1, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, will call for a test of the $80.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $83.12. Settling below this will open the way for a test of at least this wave’s $79.7 equal to (1.00) target before the uptrend extends to a new high.

With that said, this is a tight call for the next few days. The uptrend is intact and, as stated, the pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Should WTI crude oil rise again and overcome $82.1 look for a test of the $82.6 smaller than target of the compound wave up from $80.3. Settling above this would shift the near-term odds back in favor of prices rising to $83.3 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s move up has been due for a correction. Today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43 and the confirmation of a daily bearish MACD divergence indicates such a move is underway. Tomorrow, look for a test of $80.6. This is Monday’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43. Settling below $80.6 will clear the way for a deeper test of support with important targets at $80.1 and $79.0.

With that said, the move down is likely a correction. Should WTI rally again and close back above $82.2 there is a good chance that the corrective move down is complete. Closing above $83.1, the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $84.87, will confirm this is the case and put near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil reaching $83.7 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil tested and held the $77.3 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down $80.85 on a closing basis again today. The $77.3 objective is also the equal to target of the wave down from $80.67 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49. This has become an important target because closing below $77.3 would imply that the move down from $80.85 is more than a simple correction. Near-term odds still favor such a move, which will open the way for a test of the $76.2 intermediate (1.382) and possibly the $75.4 larger than (1.618) targets of the wave down from $80.85 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, another daily long-legged doji reflects uncertainty and warns that the corrective pullback from $80.85 might be complete. Settling above $79.3, the equal to target of the wave up from $76.79 and 62 percent retracement of the decline from $80.85, would strongly suggest this is the case. Closing above $79.9, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $75.84 and intermediate target of the wave up from $76.79, would confirm this is the case and put near-term odds in favor of $80.4 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continued to fall as called for today and settled below the confirmation point of Monday’s bearish dark cloud cover. The new primary wave down from $80.85 is poised to test its $77.3 smaller than (0.618) target. This objective is in line with the 20-day moving average and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49. Settling below $77.3 might initially prove to be a challenge given its confluence but would open the way for a test of the $76.2 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $80.85. This has become the most important level of support for the near-term outlook because $76.2 is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49 and the 38 percent retracement from $68.57.

Nevertheless, the move down is likely a correction because all major prior swing lows have held and WTI is still trading above all major daily moving averages. The daily Kase Trend indicator is also bullish. Should WTI rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $79.0. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $77.52 and connects to key near-term resistance at $79.7 as the equal to target. The $79.7 level is also near the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $80.85. Therefore, closing above $79.7 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put near-term odds in favor of retesting major resistance around $80.5.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI rose as called for and settled above the $77.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $69.56. This wave now favors a test of its $81.3 equal to (1.00) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of the $79.2 smaller than target of the new wave up from $71.41. Closing above this will call for another attempt to overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $86.68 at $79.7 and then a test of the $80.7 intermediate target (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $68.28.

Crude Oil Daily Chart
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart

With that said, the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $79.29 at $78.42 held on a closing basis. The late pullback from $78.47 warns that a test of $77.0 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Taking out $77.0 will call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.41 at $75.8. Settling below $75.8 would warn that the move up is failing.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The longer-term outlook for WTI crude oil remains bearish after taking out the $67.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $76.07 on Monday. This wave now favors an eventual test of the $63.2 equal to (1.00) target. However, today’s rally was large enough to shift near-term odds in favor of a larger test of resistance first. There is also a double bottom around $65.0. Even so, given current technical factors, the move up will likely prove to be corrective but is poised to challenge $69.9 during the next day or so. Closing above $69.9 should be a challenge but would call for a test of crucial resistance at $70.8. This is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $74.23 and the smaller than target of the wave up from $65.01. Settling above $70.8 would significantly dampen odds for a deeper test of support and call for WTI to rise toward the $74.23 confirmation point of the double bottom.

With that said, each time WTI is begun to look as though a recovery is underway in recent weeks the move up has failed. Moreover, should WTI take out $67.5 early tomorrow look for a test of $66.7 and possibly $65.6. Settling below $65.6 will shift near-term odds back in favor of a decline toward $63.2 in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil - $1.00 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $1.00 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil stalled at $69.19 and formed a daily bullish hammer. Today’s prices action was lackluster compared to Monday’s sell-off and suggests that the move down will probably prove to be another short-lived correction. Moreover, the wave formation up from $69.19 calls for a test of at least $71.5, which then connects to $72.5. For the move down to extend again during the next few days $72.5 must hold. Closing above this will complete the hammer, overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $74.2, and call for a test of the hammer’s $73.9 confirmation point.

With that said, today’s hammer is not enough to definitively state that the move down is complete. Falling below $69.8 before overcoming $71.5 will call for a test of $68.5. This is a crucial level because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $65.01. Taking out $68.5 will significantly dampen odds for a continued rise and call for key support at $67.6 to be challenged. This threshold is split between the smaller than (0.618) target of the waves down from $76.07 and $74.2. Settling below $67.6 will open the way for $65.9 and likely lower in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil - $1.00 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $1.00 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil remains bullish. The move up is somewhat exhausted though and is struggling to definitively overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $76.07 at $71.9. Even so, rising above $72.2 before falling much lower will clear the way for $72.9 and likely $73.8 and higher in the coming days.

With that said, three daily dojis, one of which is a hanging man, and the wave formation down from $72.43 suggest a test of at least $70.4 and possibly $69.6 will probably take place first. Closing below $69.6 is doubtful but would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support where $67.8 is the barrier to a firmer bearish outlook.

WTI Crude Oil - $1.00 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $1.00 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil remains bearish based on the aggressive decline from $76.07. However, the move down stalled just below the $65.2 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $76.07 today. Currently, the decline looks like a three-wave correction, but there is a good chance that resistance at $69.0 will hold and the decline could transmute into a five-wave trend that targets $59.5 and possibly $58.4. Such a deep test of support is unlikely without more bearish help from external factors. Nonetheless, falling below $66.0 will call for a test of $65.3 and likely $64.1 during the next few days. Settling below $64.1 would imply that the move down is a five-wave trend and increase odds for a test of targets below $60.0.

With that said, today’s move up from $65.01 helped shape a daily bullish hammer. This is a reversal pattern that warns the corrective move down might already be complete. To complete the hammer WTI must close above $69.0. The connection to $69.0 is made through $68.1, which is the smaller than (0.618) target of the intra-day wave up from $65.01. Settling above $69.0 would then call for a test of the hammer’s $71.1 confirmation point. Closing above this would strongly suggest the move down is complete and call for $71.9 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil - $1.00 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $1.00 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose as called for in yesterday’s daily update. WTI settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $76.98 and overcame the $75.36 smaller than (0.618) target of the compound wave up from $69.54. These factors imply that the move down is complete. There is an immediate target at $75.7, a move above which will call for $76.3 and likely $77.3 during the next few days. Settling above $77.3 will clear the way for $78.2 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart

The $75.7 target is relatively confluent and could prove to be a temporary stalling point. A pullback before overcoming $75.7 will likely be a short-lived correction and should hold $73.7. Key support and the barrier to a bearish outlook during the next few days is $72.5. Settling below this will shift near-term odds in favor of $71.6, which then connects to $69.2 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.