WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose to test $78.3 as called for but held the 100-day moving average, which is now $78.4. The near-term outlook remains bullish because of a sustained close above crucial resistance at $77.6 for the past couple of days. However, today’s lackluster follow-through after Monday’s rally dampens the odds for a continued rise tomorrow and warns that a test of support might take place first.

Closing above $78.4 will open the way for a test of $79.3 and then $80.0. Settling above $80.0 will call for the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 at $80.9 to be challenged.

The intra-day wave structure up from $72.48 is also due for a test of support, so this also suggests that a correction might take place before the move up extends. Taking out initial support at $77.1 will call for a test of Monday’s $76.5 midpoint. Falling below $76.5 would call for a test of key near-term support at $75.4. Settling below $75.4 would imply that the move up is failing.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil broke lower out of its recent trading range on Monday and has settled below a bearish decision point at $75.8 for the past two days. The $75.8 objective was the larger than (1.618) target of the waves down from $86.16 and $84.86, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $83.63, and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $69.25. The sustained close below the important $75.8 target is bearish for WTI crude oil’s outlook in the coming weeks.

Today’s early move down took out the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $69.25 and equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $83.63 at $73.0. This level held on a closing basis though. The move down is due for a test of resistance but any move up will likely be a correction. Moreover, the intra-day move up from $72.48 forms a bearish flag. Therefore, the outlook for tomorrow is bearish. Settling below $72.6 will definitively break the $73.0 target and open the way for $72.0, $71.1, and likely another confluent target at $70.4 in the coming days.

The daily RSI and Stochastic are poised to enter oversold territory and the KaseCD and MACD are set up for bullish divergence. The challenge is that there are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for a reversal. Even so, because $73.0 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a test of resistance first. Based on current technical factors, resistance at $74.1 will likely hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $75.5. Settling above $75.5 would call for an extended correction to challenge $76.6 and possibly a key level at $77.6.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil surged higher today, overcoming the $80.11 swing high and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 late Monday afternoon. The $80.0 level held on a closing basis, but the post-settlement move above $80.0 implies that a break higher out of the recent trading range is taking place. The $80.11 swing high is also the confirmation point of a double bottom that formed between the $76.36 and $76.15 swing lows. The target for this pattern is $84.0. Today’s rise also confirmed daily bullish KasePO, RSI, and Stochastic divergences.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 20-day moving average and 50 percent retracement around $81.1. Settling above this will call for a test of the important 62 percent retracement at $82.3. Closing above $82.3 for a few days will imply that the corrective move down from $86.16 is complete and that WTI crude oil is adopting a longer-term bullish outlook again.

Should $80.0 continue to hold on a closing basis and WTI crude oil takes out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $76.15 and today’s midpoint at $78.7 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement, today’s open, and the 200-day moving average around $77.7. Settling below $77.7 would imply that the move up was an overreaction to external factors. This is doubtful but would put the odds back in favor of WTI crude oil falling below $76.6 to challenge a longer-term bearish decision point at $75.8.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil tested and held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 at $80.1 on Monday. The subsequent pullback from $80.11 challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $76.36 at $77.8 and 100- and 200-day moving averages today. This level also held on a closing basis. Even so, holding $80.1 and pulling back to test $77.8 warns that the move up from $76.36 is a completed correction.

Falling below $78.0 will invalidate the wave up from $77.65 which shows potential to test $79.4 early tomorrow. This will also open the way for a test of the $77.5 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $80.11. Taking out $77.5 will clear the way for a move below the $77.1 intermediate (1.382) targets of the waves down from $86.16 and $84.86 to challenge $76.7 and then a long-term bearish decision point at $75.8.

This is still a tight call for the next few days though. This is because the wave up from $77.65 fulfilled its $78.9 smaller than target. Waves that meet the smaller than target typically extend to at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $79.4. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of $79.4 first. For the move down to extend as expected, $79.4 should hold. Overcoming $79.4 would call for a test of a highly confluent level and key resistance at $80.1. This is now the smaller than target of the wave up from $76.36, a close above which will shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil testing $80.9 and then this wave’s $81.4 equal to target in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil is still trying to work its way lower and is poised to test the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 again. Support at $78.0 has held on a closing basis, but the recent waves down from $79.96 favor a test of $77.5 tomorrow. Settling below $77.5 will open the way for tests of $77.0, $76.5, and then a long-term bearish decision point at $76.0. The $76.0 target is most important because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08. A sustained close below $76.0 would reflect a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment for WTI crude oil.

With that said, support between $77.5 and $78.0 has been resilient. In addition to being a confluent area of wave projections at $77.5, the $78.0 level lines up with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Should this area continue to hold and WTI crude oil rises above $78.5 look for a test of $79.0 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.6. The $79.6 level is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $76.89. Settling above this would call for a test of this wave’s $80.8 equal to (1.00), which is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil is trying to work its way lower but is struggling to settle below $78.0 support. This is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Even so, the outlook remains bearish and a close below $77.5, which is the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64, will open the way for $76.5 and then a bearish decision point at $76.0 to be challenged. The $76.0 target is most important because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and 62 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11. A test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $76.0. An eventual sustained close below $76.0 would confirm a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment and the outlook for the coming weeks.

With that said, the failure to close below $78.0 for the past few days warns that a test of resistance might take place before reaching $76.0. Any move up will likely be a correction though and is expected to hold key near-term resistance at $80.1. Settling above $80.1 would shift the odds in favor of a larger test of resistance for WTI crude oil before the move down extends.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil fell to challenge resilient support at the $81.0 target of a confirmed double top that formed around $86.9. The $81.0 target held again, and prices formed a wave up from $80.95 that warns a test of $82.8 might take place first. Even so, the move up will likely be a correction because the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 have fulfilled their smaller than (0.618) targets. Waves that meet the smaller than target typically extend to at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $79.7 for both waves. Closing below $81.0 will open the way for tests of $80.3 and the $79.7 objective within the next few days.

With that said, WTI crude oil’s pullback from $86.97 may form a bullish flat descending triangle. This is a continuation pattern, a break higher out of which would be confirmed by a close above key near-term resistance at $84.6. Should WTI crude oil overcome $82.8 look for a test of $83.3 and possibly $84.6. Settling above $84.6 would strongly suggest that the corrective pullback from $86.97 is complete and shift the odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $$85.1 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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June WTI crude oil retested the $81.0 target of a confirmed double top that formed around $86.9 today. This has been resilient support for the past few days and held on a closing basis again. The wave up from $80.7 extended and settled the day above its equal to (1.00) target and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97. WTI also settled just below the $83.5 completion point of bullish daily hammers and an inverted hammer that formed Thursday, Friday, and Monday. The wave up from $80.7 is now poised to overcome $83.5 to fulfill its $84.0 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $84.7 larger than (1.618) target. The $84.7 target is most important because it is also in line with the 62 percent retracement from $86.97 and the confirmation point of the bullish daily candlesticks. Settling above $84.7 will strongly imply that the corrective pullback from $86.97 is complete and that WTI crude oil will work its way to a new uptrend high in the coming days.

Today’s rise was bullish for the near-term outlook. However, while the $85.64 swing high holds the wave down from $86.97 still has potential to extend to its $79.7 equal to (1.00) target. This is because this wave took out its smaller than (0.618) target a few days ago. Should prices turn lower early tomorrow look for initial support at $82.4. Falling below this will call for $81.7 and possibly another attempt to take out key support at $81.0. Settling below $81.0 will clear the way for the $79.7 threshold to be fulfilled.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s corrective move down accelerated today. Prices settled below the 20-day moving average, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, and the $84.55 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $87.65. The daily Kase Trend indicator is now bearish and the 10-day DMI had a bearish crossover. The $82.56 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $87.67 held, so a test of resistance might occur first. Even so, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold because the move down should now fulfill the $81.5 target of the double top within the next few days. Settling below $81.5 will call for the $81.1 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $80.3 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $87.67 to be fulfilled.

The aggressive nature of today’s move down likely reflects a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. Nevertheless, the move down is still a correction and would have to take out the last major swing low of $80.3 to suggest further that a reversal is underway. Also, because $82.6 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a test of resistance first. As stated, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $87.67 at $84.5. This was major support that has now become resistance given $84.5 is also in line with the $84.55 confirmation point of the confirmed double top.