Kase’s senior analyst Dean Rogers reviews trade setups and price forecasts for e-mini S&P 500 and WTI Crude Oil.
Category: Oil Price Forecast
RBOB Gasoline continued its decline and met a crucial target at 155.8 for the primary wave down from 315.2. The trend terminus (T = 156.3), is the lowest that most trends extend. However, there is no evidence that the decline is going to end. The next targets are 147.3 and 139.2. The KaseCD is setup for divergence and the KasePO is oversold, so a correction may take place soon. Last week’s midpoint and open are initial resistance at 168.1 and 176.5. A close over 176.5 would call for $198.3.
Coming into this week there was an outside chance that Brent would hold $67.0. However, prices settled below $67.0 on Monday. There is immediate support at $65.2 as discussed in this week’s Crude Oil Commentary, but the decline is now poised for at least $62.8 and likely $58.5 before a measurable retracement takes place. The key target is $58.5 because it is the most confluent wave projection and the equal to (1.00) target for the wave $112.59 – 83.41 – 88.42. A sustained close below this will open the way for $53.8 and $48.7.
There is very little evidence that the move down is going to end at this time. Prices are still deeply oversold and overdue for a correction, but until at least initial resistance at $70.5 is overcome, the move down is favored. Next resistance is $72.1, and a close over the this would call for and an extended correction to $75.1 and possibly $79.8.
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The outlook for WTI Crude Oil is negative, but prices met crucial support at $63.4. This is a confluent wave projection for the January contract, and more importantly, is the 62 percent retracement from the perpetual low of $32.4 to $114.83. In addition, the KaseCD is oversold on the monthly chart. The importance of $63.4 indicates it is a potential stalling point, but there is little technical evidence so far to definitively call for a bottom. A sustained close below $63.4 will call for $49.7. Key near term resistance is $73.3.
For more detailed energy forecasts please take a trial of the Energy Price Forecasts.
The HOCL crack spread has narrowed after forming a double top at $27.26. A close below the $18.887 swing low would confirm the pattern. KaseX also indicates the spread should narrow. However, the move may be corrective. Crucial support at $22.38 is the 62 percent retracement from $18.887 and the 38 percent retracement from $14.987. A close below $22.38 would call for $19.5; the last level protecting $18.887. Resistance at $25.6 is key. A sustained close over this would open the way for $31.14 and higher.
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The WTI-Brent spread narrowed last week, but the move looks corrective. The spread will likely oscillate for the near-term, but ultimately odds favor a widening spread. The first target is (5.00), and a close below this would call for (6.50) and (9.00). Key long-term support is (11.80). This is a confluent wave projection and the 62 percent retracement from (19.38) to (0.01). Resistance at (0.90) should hold. A sustained close over (0.90) would open the way for 1.30 and 2.90.
For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.
December 2014 NY Harbor ULSD futures have formed a rectangle pattern. A break out of the rectangle will provide a near-term direction. Monday’s close below Friday’s midpoint indicates the pattern will likely break lower. Upon a close below 243.5 look for the pattern to break lower and decline to at least 236.4, which then connects to 225.1 and 213.2. A close over 253.8 would call for a break higher, and would open the way for 259.7, 267.4, and 282.1.
For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.
December WTI broke the recent and crucial $79.1 swing low when prices fell to a $78.14 intraday low on Monday. This was the 1.00 projection for the two largest waves down from $106.81 (Wave A) and $103.66 (Wave A’/C). WTI is now poised for at least $73.9 and possibly $69.8, which are the next targets for these waves. Look for near-term resistance at $79.8, $83.0, and $84.8.
For more information about this call, the importance of these targets (and others), and the technical factors driving prices lower, take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts.
December RBOB futures met confluent support at $2.0776, and prices have subsequently settled into a coil formation that should break lower. However, a KasePO PeakOut (green P), indicates the move down is oversold and due for a correction. A directional break out of the coil will help to clarify the near term direction. Upon a break lower, look for $2.041 and then $1.915. Should the upward correction extend, watch for resistance at $2.240 and $2.368. The latter is expected to hold.
For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.
The Kase Commentaries on Crude Oil and on Natural Gas provide highly accurate weekly near term market outlooks. Kase’s analysis has proven to be remarkably accurate in identifying critical market turning points and probable market behavior.nnThe Commentary is highly technical, but interactive, so readers can click on unique words and phrases for definition to help them better understand the analysis. This is a great stand-alone product, but also works well as a companion product for Kase StatWare, KaseX or any of Kase’s Hedging Models.nnKase offers a free trial period for the Commentary so contact us today!
