Oil Price Forecast Archives - Page 21 of 24

By Dean Rogers

For the past eight weeks September WTI crude oil futures have closed lower, and the decline is quickly approaching major support at $42.5. Many pundits claim the sky is falling, but it is usually at times like this that the market will finally find support and at least attempt to make a bottom.

We have discussed $42.5 as major target and potential bottom in our weekly blog update and in our detailed crude oil forecast for several weeks. There is no definitive evidence that the move down is going to end, but on Monday a few positive signs formed that indicate an extended upward correction may take place.

Monday’s bullish engulfing line, exhausted daily KasePO and KaseCD momentum, weekly divergence setups, and the intraday wave up from $43.35 all show that the upward correction may test $45.9 and possibly $47.5 before the decline continues.

For now, there is no evidence that this will be a major correction, not yet at least, but the fact that the market is starting to show some positive signs of life could mean the move down will end soon.

That said, important resistance was met at $45.01, so we expect to see a pullback to $44.3, Monday’s midpoint, in early trading Tuesday. A close below $44.3 would negate many of the aforementioned positive factors and open the way for $42.5 to finally be met.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the near-term. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

RBOB Gasoline futures tested support at 167.43 on Monday and have taken out the crucial 169.25 swing low. The outlook is negative, but many technical factors, including Monday’s dip below the lower Bollinger Band, indicate a correction should take place once 160.0 is met. This is the confluence point between the 62 percent retracement of the move up from 122.65 and the 1.618 projection for the primary wave down from 218.58.

Look for resistance at 172.3 and 181.3. The latter is expected to hold.

By Dean Rogers

Crude oil has taken on a strong bearish tone. There is very little technical evidence, and even less fundamental evidence, that the decline is going to end. However, it is almost always darkest before dawn and there are a few factors that show a correction should take place soon.

Last week’s update discussed major support at $47.0 for WTI and September Brent crude oil is quickly approaching major technical support at $52.8. This is the 1.618 projection for $71.37 – 62.3 – 62.49, the 0.618 projection for $67.49 – 55.6 – 59.9, and the lower Bollinger Band. The KasePO, shown in the middle panel of the chart above, and KaseCD, in the bottom panel, are setup for divergence and nearly in oversold territory. These factors indicate $52.8 is a potential stalling point and that a correction might take place before the decline continues to the next targets.

A normal correction will hold $55.6, the 38 percent retracement from $59.9. Key resistance is $57.2, the 62 percent retracement. We expect $55.6 to hold before the next leg lower takes place.

Prompt month WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below $50.0 on Monday and settled at the lowest level since April 2. The deal with Iran has led to fresh concerns about the global supply glut and most technical factors are negative. RBOB gasoline is lending some support, but on balance, the decline is poised to extend into the mid- and possibly low-$40s where the March 18th low of $42.03 would be challenged.

Prices broke lower out of the near perfect intraday bearish flag discussed last week. September WTI futures, which will become the prompt month on Wednesday, also settled below key support at $50.6 on Monday. This was the 1.618 projection of the wave $64.45 – 57.09 – 62.51. This is likely Wave I of a five wave trending pattern that should unfold to at least $47.0 and possibly $42.5. The five-wave pattern is not perfect, but the close below $50.6 and the bottom of Wave III leaves little room for any other interpretation.

When a five-wave pattern forms at least two of the three impulse waves (I, III, or V) should be equal. At $47.0 Waves I and V will be equal and at $42.5 Waves III and V will be equal. Structurally, both $47.0 and $42.5 fit the structure of the five-wave pattern because $47.0 is the 0.618 projection of Wave III, $62.51 – 50.95 – 54.35 and $42.5 is the 2.764 projection for Wave I.

It is important to note that $42.5 is the lowest that the five-wave pattern projects. Therefore, unless the structure of the wave formation drastically changes, it is not likely that prices will fall below $42.5 in coming weeks.

Odds favor the decline, but the market still seems a bit unsure of itself. As stated, there is some support being wrought by RBOB gasoline, but it ended Monday on a negative note by forming an evening star setup. The move down will likely be a grind and small tests of resistance will be commonplace. First resistance is $51.8 followed by $52.8, which is expected to hold. Key resistance is the $54.35 swing high. A close above this would negative the five-wave pattern and open the way for an extended correction and potential recovery to $59.3 and higher.

Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

Perfect geometric formations are a rare commodity. They are useful gems of information that can tell us a lot about a market’s outlook and general direction. It is important to pay attention to the implications of a successful break out of the pattern, and it is even more important to watch for patterns that fail.

WTI’s bearish flag on the $0.50 Kase Bar chart is as close to a textbook example as one will ever see. Flags are extremely reliable continuation patterns. Because this flag formed after a decline, and is sloping upwards, it is a bearish pattern that indicates the move up is corrective and that the decline should continue.

The waves within the flag have fulfilled the 1.00 projection for the wave $50.58 – 53.43 – 50.91. This is significant because it is evidence that the move up is unfolding as a three-wave ABC pattern, which is more evidence that the move is corrective.

Prices settled in the lower half of the formation on Monday, which does not bode well for another test of the upper trend line. A close below $51.8, which is near the bottom trend line, would indicate the move down is going to extend to at least $49.9. Our detailed weekly analysis discusses the connections to targets in the mid- to low-$40s upon a break lower.

There is an outside chance that the formation will fail, but prices will need to close over $54.8 to prove that an extended upward correction and potential recovery is underway. Technically, the flag will fail upon a close over the upper trend line, which is currently $54.2. However, for many technical reasons, $54.8 is the threshold for a positive near-term outlook. Most importantly, it is near the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $62.22 and the midpoint of July 6th.

For now, watch the flag formation closely. Odds favor a break lower and close below $51.8. The directional breakout of this pattern will be a strong clue as to the direction of WTI for the next several weeks.

As predicted WTI crude oil has broken lower out of the recent trading range and fell by nearly eight percent on Monday. The important 1.382 projection was met at the $52.41 swing low. Key support at $50.5 should be tested tomorrow. We consider this a decision point for a much more bearish outlook and decline into the mid-$40’s. Today’s action may even dust up talks about the $30s again, though we think that conversation is a bit premature. Look for resistance at Monday’s $54.4 midpoint. This may be tested in early trading Tuesday, but should hold.

The RBOB gasoline crack spread widened to $25.64 on Monday and could test $27.77 before narrowing again. Resistance near this level is expected to hold and the crack is poised to narrow now that the 0.618 projection of the wave down from $33.80 was met. We would look to short the crack spread soon because KaseX generated a filtered sell signal on June 25th. The key target at $19.00 is the 1.00 projection and the top of the gap that took place on February 23rd.

RBOB gasoline prices are weak after stalling at 218.58. This was an important confluence point because it was the 50 percent retracement of the decline from 315.2 and the 0.618 target for the wave up from 122.65. The move up was exhausted once it reached 218.58 and negative factors like a bearish KasePO divergence have shifted near-term odds in favor of a pullback to 199.7 and 188.1 over the next few weeks.

That said, the pullback is most likely corrective.

Our studies show that nearly 80 percent of waves that meet the 0.618 target extend to at least the 1.00 target, which is 244.39 for the wave up from 122.65. This is also near the 62 percent retracement from 315.2. The only way to negate a wave’s projections is to take out the swing low of its correction, in this case, 169.25. Therefore, while 169.25 holds the longer-term outlook for gasoline is positive and favors an extension to 244.39.

Taking out the 244.39 swing low would be extremely bearish for gasoline prices. Right now we don’t that will be the case, but closing below 188.1 support will go a long way to increasing the odds of ultimately taking out 169.25.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

The crude oil market as a whole has continued to be dominated by stale and conflicting fundamental, technical, and geopolitical factors. These factors have brought about as much balance to the crude oil markets as Anakin Skywalker brought to the force. The most interesting factor is that many market participants seem to forget that markets have three direction: up, down, and sideways. Right now, WTI is stuck in a mind numbing sideways range. I say this because it is almost as exciting as watching the grass in my backyard grow.

During times like this we tend to grow impatient and frustrated. The easiest way to deal with a range bound market is to walk away, take a few deep breaths, work on our short game, and come back to play another day. However, we don’t all have that luxury, and have no choice but to participate and be driven insane by the constant change of direction and endless supply of chalky antacids we are popping like candy.

Luckily, technical analysis can help us to clarify the crucial breakout points for this range. Our models, which are based upon a combination of many different technical factors, show crucial resistance at $62.0 and support at $57.5. In addition, the line on close chart shown below confirms that these are the clear boundaries of the trading range. A break out of this range will help determine the direction for the next few months.

The challenge is that it is nearly a toss-up as to which direction the market will break.

Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary goes into great detail about the implications of a break higher or lower out of this range. We break down the wave formations, retracements, candlesticks, momentum, and other factors. The bottom line is that the range may be corrective, which means prices should break higher. However, our models show that that $57.5 will be tested at least once more before WTI closes over $62.0.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough WTI and Brent crude oil price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

As expected, OPEC is not changing their output, or their strategy of retaining market share, because their strategy is working. Greece may default, pull-out of the European Union, strike some new deal, or do nothing, all of which could send waves through the Eurozone. The dollar is up and then down from day to day. The list could go on and on and on, but the point is that all of these are conflicting factors, most of which have already been priced into the market, and none of which give any clarification of a long-term crude oil price direction.

Prices on a chart are the reflection of what information traders have and the information that they are acting upon. When prices go up, a majority of traders, at that moment, have a reason to buy. If the information, or a series of events, are strong enough to sustain a move a trend develops. However, when prices chop around, like they have for the past few weeks, it is a result of a lack of information, or an abundance of too much inconsequential information. Right now, the market suffers from the latter. The market lacks definition and clarity, and because of this we expect more mind numbing choppiness and range bound trading until the market can get its teeth into factors that can sustain a directional move for the longer-term.

Last week, Brent failed to break the upper trendline of the downward sloping channel that it has been trading in since May 6th. From a technical standpoint, Brent looks more negative than WTI, though its move down today was marginal. Nonetheless, Brent met confluent support around $61.0 last week, and upon a close below that level we expect to see $59.9 and then $58.5.

The retracement to $63.43 has held the 50 percent retracement so far, but a close over this would push prices to $64.7 and then to retest the $65.88 swing high.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: A Few Signs of Life

Category: Oil Price Forecast