Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas could not break support at $1.70 and make the push for $1.66 during the last few days. Support at $1.70 is the larger than (1.618) target of the first wave down from $1.924 (dark cyan) and is marginally below the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1.517 (blue). The subsequent wave up from $1.708 (orange) accelerated this afternoon and is testing its equal to (1.00) target and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1.924 (dark red). This is positive for the near-term outlook.

Because $1.70 held and based on this afternoon’s move up, near-term odds have shifted in favor of challenging at least $1.84 tomorrow. This is the larger than target of the wave up from $1.708 (orange) and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1.924 (dark red). Settling above this will call for $1.91, which then connects to $1.96 and higher.

Nevertheless, while $1.84 holds, there is a modest chance for the move down to extend to $1.66. Falling below the $1.728 swing low will increase odds for $1.66 because this would invalidate the wave up from $1.708 (orange) that makes the connection to $1.84 and $1.91. Support at $1.66 is key for the near-term outlook and is expected to hold. Closing below this would call for another test of $1.59 and possibly lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas has adopted a bullish outlook for the remaining summer months after rallying to a high of $1.924. This was the equal to (1.00) target of the August contract’s primary wave up from $1.517 and was in line with the 50-day moving average. However, today’s bearish engulfing line calls for a deeper test of support before the move up continues above $1.92 to challenge $1.98 and higher.

Based on the wave formation down from $1.924 and the retracements of the move up from $1.517, August natural gas should fall to at least $1.78 and likely $1.73 before settling above $1.92. The $1.73 objective will most likely hold. Once this target is met, odds for another test of $1.92 will begin to increase.

Nevertheless, closing below $1.73 would call for key support at $1.67 to be challenged. This is the larger than (1.618) target and the 62 percent retracement. Settling below $1.67 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in external factors (e.g. weather and/or supply and demand). This would then call for another test of $1.60 and possibly lower.

During the next day or so, as prices fall to challenge support, resistance at $1.88 should hold. Rising above this will call for another test of $1.92. An eventual close above $1.92 is expected and will clear the way for $1.98 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

After prompt month natural gas prices fell to a 25 year low of $1.432 late last week prices quickly bounced to challenge important resistance at $1.77. A move like this is common after such a significant decline but does not necessarily mean a bottom has been made.

So far, resistance at $1.77 has held on a closing basis. This level is still a factor because it is August’s 21-day moving average and the 50- and 100-day moving average on the continuation chart. Also, today’s bearish engulfing line and the intra-day waves down from $1.784 call for a deeper test of support. Tomorrow, look for a test of $1.62, a close below which will call for $1.55 and possibly $1.51.

Nevertheless, should $1.62 hold and prices settle above $1.77, there is a good chance that a bottom has been made and that prices are settling back into a trading range for the interim. In this case, natural gas should rise toward major resistance at $1.87. For now, unless there is a bullish shift in supply/demand factors, $1.87 is expected to hold.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Today, the focus of the natural gas analysis is switched to the August contract due to July’s expiration on Friday, June 26.

On a side note, July’s close below $1.60 today puts the prompt month in position to reach at least $1.54 and possibly $1.49 before expiration. However, given the time constraint, reaching $1.49 will be a challenge. Therefore, it looks like the continuation chart’s $1.519 swing low may continue to hold for now.

The August natural gas contract fell to a new contract low of $1.652 today and continues to extend its long-term downtrend. There is some support around $1.65 for a few of the recent waves down from $1.96 and $1.915. However, based on the larger waves and sub-waves, August natural gas is poised to challenge $1.60. This has been strong support for the past several weeks on the continuation chart and should be stiff support for August. The $1.60 target is highly confluent and is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2.447.

Once the $1.60 objective is met, another test of resistance is anticipated before the decline continues. Nevertheless, closing below $1.60 will call for $1.55 and likely $1.51, where the continuation chart’s $1.519 swing low will be challenged.

A few daily momentum oscillators are oversold and setup for bullish divergence. Otherwise, there are no confirmed bullish patterns or signals that indicate the move down will stall. Even so, should August rally early tomorrow, look for initial resistance at $1.70 and key near-term resistance at $1.74. Settling above $1.74 will shift near-term odds in favor of a larger correction to test $1.82. This is the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $2.447 and the 21-day moving average.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

The outlook for natural gas is bearish after settling below $1.69 and wiping out the bullish hammer that formed a week ago on June 10. The move down also broke the lower trend line on the continuation chart connecting the $1.519 and $1.595 swing lows. Today’s pullback tested and held this same trend line and Tuesday’s midpoint, which is bearish for the near-term. Finally, the move up from $1.597 forms a bearish flag that is poised to break lower.

A close below $1.60 is expected during the next day or so and will open the way for $1.54 and likely $1.49. Once $1.49 is met, another significant test of resistance is anticipated.

Nevertheless, $1.60 is a historically important level and has been resilient support after prompt month prices on the continuation chart fell to $1.519 on March 23. So far, $1.60 hast held on a closing basis. Should the corrective move up from $1.597 extend above $1.67 first, look for a test of $1.71. Resistance at $1.71 is expected to hold, though a close above this will call for $1.78. This is key resistance because settling above $1.78 will open the way for a move to, and likely above, $1.83. For now, such a move is doubtful without a strong bullish shift in external factors (e.g. weather or other demand).

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas fell as called for and finally challenged the crucial $1.69 objective. However, the move down stalled just below $1.69 at $1.674 and then quickly rallied. This formed a spike type bottom on the intra-day chart and a textbook daily hammer. The brevity of the move down felt as though the market needed to get a test of $1.69 out of its system before rising to challenge resistance again.

Today’s prices action, the hammer, and several momentum oscillator divergence setups call for a larger test of resistance during the next few days. Closing above $1.81 will confirm the hammer and clear the way for key near-term resistance at $1.86. Resistance between $1.86 and $1.90 has been resilient on the July and continuation charts for the past few weeks. Therefore, closing above $1.86 would confirm a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and increase odds for a test of $1.94 and $2.00.

Nonetheless, for now, the move up is corrective and must hold $1.69 on a closing basis. Should natural gas fall below $1.75 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $1.69. Settling below $1.69 would be quite bearish and open the way for $1.61 and possibly lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

On the continuation chart, natural gas has been stuck in a wide trading range since mid-January. This range will likely persist for at least another few weeks. However, the July natural gas chart is in a downtrend that favors a decline to $1.70 during the next couple of days. This will fill the $1.722 June-July rollover gap on the continuation chart and fulfill the next major targets for the waves down from $2.364, $2.027, and $1.979. Support at $1.70 is a probable stalling point due to its importance on both the July and continuation charts. Nonetheless, any move up from $1.70 will likely be corrective and a close below $1.70 will clear the way for $1.66 and lower.

There are, however, a few bullish technical factors that suggest a larger test of resistance might take place first. Today’s close above Monday’s $1.802 midpoint completed Tuesday’s morning star. Also, this afternoon’s move down held the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1.742. Should natural gas overcome $1.86, look for a larger upward correction to challenge $1.90. The $1.90 level is expected to hold. Settling above this would call for $1.95 possibly $1.99.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July natural gas, which is now the prompt month futures contract, held $1.96 resistance and is poised to challenge at least $1.83 and likely $1.78 during the next few days. The $1.78 target is the lowest the first wave down from $2.027 projects and the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2.027. Closing below $1.78 will call for prices to fall toward $1.70 where the continuation chart’s rollover gap up from June’s $1.722 settle will be filled.

The $1.70 objective is also the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave down from $2.364. Closing below $1.70 may be a challenge without help from bearish external factors. Also, due to the importance of $1.70 and its connection to a new 2020 continuation chart low, it is doubtful that prices fall below $1.70 without another significant test of resistance first.

There is an immediate support target at $1.86 that may hold early tomorrow. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2.027 and makes the connection to $1.78 and $1.70. Resistance at $1.95 is expected to hold and $2.02 is key. Settling above $2.02 would shift near-term odds in favor of $2.07 and possibly higher before another downturn.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

During the past few days June natural gas has risen to challenge the lower trend line of the bearish flag pattern that prices broke lower out of on May 12. This is common after breaking lower out of this type of pattern. The pullback is most likely corrective and briefly overcame the lower trend line this morning. The trend line is also in the vicinity of the 21- and 50- day moving averages and a few crucial wave projections and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2.162. All of these levels held on a closing basis. The subsequent move down left a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick and retraced 50 percent of the move up from $1.595.

Today’s price action was bearish for the outlook during the next few days and calls for a test at least $1.71. This is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1.595, a close below which will significantly increase odds for another attempt at $1.59. The $1.59 objective is still a relatively confluent and important target that could hold. However, settling below this would call for $1.55, which is now the last level of support protecting the $1.519 swing low on the continuation chart.

The decline from $1.889 lacks a definitive wave structure, so a test of resistance might take place early tomorrow. Resistance at $1.83 is expected to hold. Key resistance is $1.87. Settling above this would put prices back above the flag’s lower trend line and call for a push toward $1.92, which then connects to $2.02. This is doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in fundamental factors and near-term sentiment.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June natural gas broke support at $1.66 and fell to a new contract low of $1.595. Based on the waves and sub-waves down from $2.162 this is a highly confluent objective and a potential stalling point. Nonetheless, closing below $1.59 will call for $1.53, the last target protecting the continuation chart’s $1.519 swing low. Settling below $1.519 remains doubtful, but would clear the way for $1.45 and possibly $1.40.

There are no bullish signals or patterns that suggest the move down will end. However, the wave structure down from $2.162 lacks a definitive test of resistance and is due for an upward correction before prices push much lower.

Prices have risen late this afternoon and will probably challenge today’s $1.66 midpoint early tomorrow. Rising above this would call for a test of $1.71. For now, $1.71 is expected to hold, but a close above this would call for $1.81. This is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.162 and must hold for the move down to extend during the next few days. Settling above $1.81 would imply the decline has stalled again and would call for a much more substantial test of resistance in the coming days and possibly weeks.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.