Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold settled below the 100-day moving average for the second straight day and challenged the $1857 target as called for in yesterday’s update. This confluence point is split around the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1983.8, the 89 percent retracement of the rise from $1851.0, and the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the wave down from $1939.4. This may prove to be a temporary stalling point but fulfilling the $1857 objective is bearish for gold’s outlook.

Closing below $1857 will clear the way for $1841 and then the next major objective at $1810. The $1810 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2. Once met, another significant test of resistance is expected before gold falls any lower.

As stated, due to the confluence of $1857, a test of resistance might take place before falling to $1841 and lower. Resistance at $1893 is expected to hold and $1913 is key for the near-term. Settling above $1913, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1851.0, will shift near-term odds in favor of rising to the $1948 equal to target before the decline continues.This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold continues to trade erratically but retains a bearish outlook. Today’s failure to reach $1942 and the move below $1902, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1939.4, has shifted near-term odds back in favor of testing $1882. This objective is key because taking out $1882 will clear the way for the next leg of the move down to challenge $1859, $1840, and eventually $1810.

Nonetheless, because gold overcame the smaller than targets of the waves up from $1851.0 and $1877.1, there is still a reasonable chance for a test of $1950 before the decline continues.

Should gold settle back above $1925 before taking out $1882 look for a test of $1950. The $1950 level is expected to hold. Closing above this would warn that a bullish reversal is underway and would significantly dampen odds for a continued decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for gold remains bearish and the move up from $1877.1 is most likely corrective of the recent decline from $1927.0. Closing below $1879 will clear the way for $1855 and lower. Nonetheless, there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance first, but $1908 is expected to hold.

Gold’s recent decline from $1927.0 stalled near the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1851.0. The subsequent move up has been shallow and choppy and is most likely forming a bearish flag that is poised to break lower during the next day or so. Closing below $1879 will confirm that the move down is extending again and will call for $1855 and then $1842. The $1842 level is most important for the near-term because a close below this will clear the way for the next major objective at $1812.

With that said, the small waves up from $1877.1 suggest a test of $1908 might take place first. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1927.0 and is expected to hold. Closing above $1908 will call for $1924, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1851.0. This is a key threshold for the near-term because a close above $1924 will clear the way for $1942 and likely $1955.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold is bullish after settling above the $1851.0 double bottom’s $1911 target today. The move up is poised to reach $1938. This is the highest the wave up from $1851.0 projects and is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2089.2. Gold will likely be hard-pressed to close above $1938 without a test of support first. Therefore, once $1938 is met odds for a significant test of resistance will rise to better than even. Nevertheless, closing above $1938 would warn that the move down from $2089.2 might be complete and would call for $1958 and higher.

Should gold turn lower before reaching $1938 look for initial support at $1892 and key near-term support at $1877. Closing below $1877 will shift odds back in favor of challenging $1851 and then $1840.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for December COMEX gold is bearish after breaking lower out of a coil pattern last week and settling below a crucial $1888 objective on Wednesday. The sustained close below $1888, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2, calls for gold to reach the $1810 equal to (1.00) target in the coming days.

However, there is strong near-term support around $1843. This is the most confluent wave projection and is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $1458.8. Today’s formation of a hammer also suggests that a larger test of resistance might take place before the decline continues.

The $1888 level has become initial resistance and will likely hold. However, the increase in volatility during the past few days could help drive gold to challenge $1905. These are the completion and confirmation points for today’s hammer pattern, respectively. Settling above $1905 is doubtful but would dampen odds for a continued decline during the next few days and would shift near-term odds in favor of challenging $1930 and possibly $1954.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold is bearish after finally breaking lower out of a coil pattern and settling below the pattern’s lower trend line. Gold also settled below the 20-day moving average. The move down is now poised to reach at least $1929. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2001.2 and connects to a key objective at $1892 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $1892 objective is also the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $2089.2. Settling below this would be quite bearish for the outlook in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, a move up at the end of the day suggests gold might test the lower trend line of the coil before the decline continues. Tomorrow, this trend line will intersect with $1964 resistance and is expected to hold. Rising above this would call for another attempt at $1983, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1911.7. Settling above $1983 would imply that today’s move down was another false breakout and would clear the way for $2005 and likely higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is trading in a narrowing range that forms a coil pattern. Coils are not exceptionally reliable patterns like flags and pennants when it comes to determining a breakout direction. However, they lean in favor of a breakout in the direction of the prior move before the coil formed, in this case, down. A breakout of the coil should take place during the next few days.

Coils reflect uncertainty, which makes this is a very tight near-term call for gold right now. Even so, odds continue to lean in favor of a break lower. Falling below $1936 will call for $1820. This is the smaller than target of the wave down from $2001.2. Settling below this will confirm a break lower out of the coil and call for a test of $1888 and likely lower.

Nevertheless, gold briefly broke the coil’s lower trend line on Tuesday, but since then has challenged the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2001.2 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1908.4. Prices also settled above the 20-day moving average today. These factors suggest the coil’s upper trend line around $1988 might be challenged before another test of support. Also, the wave up from $1908.4 calls for a test of $2002. Settling above $2002 would confirm a break higher out of the coil and clear the way for $2023 and likely $2041.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is trading in a narrowing range that forms a coil pattern. Coils reflect indecisiveness and are not the most reliable patterns. Even so, they generally break in the direction of the prior move, in this case, down.

Today’s decline to $1927.2 challenged the lower trend line of the coil and fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2024.6. This is bearish and suggests that the move down should continue to the $1888 equal to target. This is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2089.2. Settling below $1888 will call for a more significant decline.

Nevertheless, the move up to $2001.2 earlier in the week fulfilled the smaller than target of the wave up from $1874.2. This wave positive because this wave connects to $2059 and higher. The coil pattern may be building a bullish base, but until gold settles above $2001, the near-term outlook will continue to lean bearish.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Near-Term Outlook

The near-term outlook for December gold futures leans bearish. Gold initially rose to $1980 as expected today. However, this level, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2024.6 and the 20-day moving average, held on a closing basis. Also, the subsequent move down from today’s $1987.0 high fulfilled the $1915 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2024.6. Therefore, odds favor a continued decline, and a move below $1915 will clear the way for $1891 and lower.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past few days. So far, the move up from $1914.7 has held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1987.0. However, should gold rise a bit higher first, look for resistance at $1961 to hold. Closing above this would shift near-term odds in favor of key resistance at $1997. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1908.4 and, more importantly, the smaller than target of the wave up from $1874.2. Settling above $1997 would call for gold to make a push for at least $2023 and likely higher next week.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Near-Term Outlook

December gold’s move up today is most likely corrective of yesterday’s decline. Near-term odds continue to favor a larger move down because of the daily and weekly reversal patterns and signals that were confirmed during the pullback from the $2089.2 swing high. A move below $1942 early tomorrow will increase odds for challenging $1932 again. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1874.2, a close below which will call for $1907 and then the key objective at $1892. Settling below $1892 will call for a much more significant test of support before gold tries to rise again.

Nevertheless, based on the intra-day waves up from $1928.9, there is a good chance for a test of $1975 and possibly $1988 before gold challenges $1932 again. Resistance at $1988 is expected to hold. Closing above this will call for $2011 and possibly $2022. The $2022 threshold is most important because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1874.2. Settling above $2022 would imply that the corrective move down is most likely complete and that the move up will begin to extend toward new highs again.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.