Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after the August contract overcame the $2477 swing high. However, resistance at $2490 has held and the pullback from $2488 will likely test $2421 tomorrow. A normal correction of the move up from $2304.2 should hold $2421 because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2488.4 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2. Settling below $2421 would call for an extended test of support with objectives at $2392 and $2375.

Nevertheless, the trend remains bullish and the pullback from $2488.4 will likely prove to be a correction. Overcoming the $2478.5 swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2488.4 that projects to $2421 and $2392. This will also call for another attempt to overcome key near-term resistance at $2490.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August gold settled above the crucial $2412 objective today. This was in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477. Settling above $2412 implies that the corrective move down from $2477 is complete.

The $2431 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2327.4 held, but another test of this objective is expected. Settling above $2431 will call for a test of another highly confluent and key objective at $2458. The $2458 target is in line with the target of a confirmed $2304 double bottom, the 89 percent retracement from $2477, and projections of the waves up from $2304.2, $2304.7, $2327.4, and $2356. A test of support is anticipated before sustaining a close above $2458.

Nonetheless, because $2431 held today there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2402 first. This level is expected to hold because it is in line with the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2 and today’s midpoint. Taking out $2402 would call for a test of key near-term support at $2380.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

For the past few weeks, August gold has held the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 on a closing basis. Furthermore, a double bottom around $2304 formed, and today’s move up implies that a test of the $2383 confirmation point of the pattern will be tested. Settling above $2383 will warn that a the move down from $2477 is complete and open the way for a test of $2402 and higher in the coming days. The target of the double bottom is $2462. The connection to $2462 is made through $2412 and $2435.

That said, each time the move up has been poised to extend in recent weeks the move up has failed and prices have fallen to challenge recent lows. Today’s move up also held the $2373 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2304.7. Should prices fall and take out $2348 look for a test of key near-term support at $2328. settling below $2328 will put the near-term odds in favor of $2298 and lower.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied and settled above the equal to (1.00) targets of the wave up from $2304.2 and $2310.9. The 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2310.9 held on a closing basis. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days and warns that the move down from $2477 might be complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2387. Settling above this will call for a key objective at $2405 to be challenged. The $2405 target is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and 62 percent retracement from $2477. Settling above $2405 will strongly suggest that the move down is complete and that gold is readopting a firm bullish outlook.

Nonetheless, there is still a reasonable chance for the move down to extend while $2370 holds on a closing basis. Should gold fall tomorrow and take out $2351 look for a test of key support at $2333. Settling below this will put the near-term odds back in favor of testing the $2309 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold fell to nearly challenge the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago again. Prices have settled below the smaller than (0.618) targets of the waves down from $2477 and $2358.8. Therefore, the move down should now extend to these waves’ respective $2261 and $2303 equal to (1.00) targets. Such a move will take out the $2308.7 swing low, a close below which will confirm the double top that would then target $2143.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the $2296 smaller than target of the wave down from $2406.7. This wave also connects to $2261 as the equal to target. The $2261 level is crucial because it is also a highly confluent retracement level that lines up with the 100-day moving average. Therefore, a corrective test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $2261.

Should the move down stall again and prices rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $2345. Closing above this would call for another attempt to overcome key near-term resistance at $2368.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold could not close below the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2308.7 at $2346 after testing and holding the $2336 XC (2.764) projection of the prior primary wave down from $2477. Prices have risen for the past couple of days and have broken higher out of a period of consolidation. Today’s close above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 and the $2375.5 confirmation point of a $2335 double bottom warns that the move down might be complete. This move up also suggests that gold will fail to confirm a double top around $2474 by closing below the $2308.7 swing low.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2408, a close above which will call for $2420. The $2420 objective is split between the $2417 target of the double bottom and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 at $2423. Settling above $2420 would provide more evidence that the move down is complete. This would also call for a test of the $2439 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2308.7 in the coming days.

Should prices turn lower again and take out $2373 look for a test of $2359 and possibly another attempt to take out $2346. Settling below $2346 would shift near-term odds back in favor of gold falling to $2327 and eventually $2309.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August gold is struggling to take out support around $2346 and today’s doji warns that the move down from $2477 may be complete. However, a double top around $2474, last week’s bearish engulfing line, confirmed daily bearish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences, and a sustained close below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2308.7 imply a deeper test of support should still take place. Closing below $2346 will call for $2329 and then a test of the $2309 smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave down from $2477.

Nevertheless, the move down has been lackluster after last week’s decline from $2477. One could also make a case for a double bottom around $2347. Should prices rise tomorrow and overcome the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 at $2394 look for a test of $2410 and possibly key resistance at $2426. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477. Therefore, settling above $2426 would strongly imply that the move down from $2477 is a completed correction of the long-term uptrend.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s pullback from $2454.2 extended today and settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2285.2 and the 20-day moving average. Daily bearish KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergence were also confirmed within the past few days. Currently, there is also a weekly bearish RSI divergence and a weekly bearish engulfing line. The move down is likely a correction of the uptrend, but these bearish technical factors imply that a significant test of support will likely unfold in the coming days.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2316. This is the lowest that the first wave down from $2454.2 projects, so this is a potential stalling point. Even so, a move up will probably be a correction of the recent pullback and should hold today’s $2360 midpoint. Settling below $2316 will clear the way for a test of $2284 and possibly a major support target at $2235 in the coming days.

Should gold overcome $2360 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2380. Settling above $2380 would warn that the corrective pullback is complete and call for a test of $2406 and possibly the $2433 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2285.2 instead.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to test the $2350 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 before pulling back again. This implies that the wave up from $2304.6 will test its $2366 equal to (1.00) target. However, the pullback from $2350.9 took out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2324.8. Therefore, odds lean in favor of taking out the $2324.8 swing low to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.6 at $2322. This will invalidate the wave up from $2304.6 that projects to $2366 and higher. This will also call for a test of $2301 and then the $2283 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2448.8.

Nevertheless, while the $2324.8 swing low holds there is still a reasonable chance for a test of $2366. Closing above this will call for key resistance and larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.6 at $2400 to be challenged. The $2400 level is also the 62 percent retracement from $2448.8 and confirmation point of the bullish daily candlesticks that formed Tuesday and Wednesday. Settling above $2400 would imply that the corrective move down is complete, shifting the odds in favor of gold rising to $2433 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold has been trading in a small corrective range for the past few days. Last week’s late pullback from $2448.8 and the formation of weekly and daily shooting stars and daily weak bearish divergences warn that a reversal might still take place. However, prices are rising toward a key near-term target at $2419. Therefore, the pullback from $2448.8 will probably prove to be a short-lived correction. A move above $2407 will call for a test of $2419. Closing above $2419 will open the way for $2452, which then connects to $2473 and higher.

With that said, this is a tight call for the near term because given the bearish patterns and signals mentioned above there is still a reasonable chance for a test of key support at $2348. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2448.8. Taking out $2381 will call for a test of $2365 and possibly $2348. Settling below $2348 will shift the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to $2306 and possibly lower.