Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold’s lackluster follow-through after Wednesday’s decline was bullish for the near-term outlook. Gold is poised to challenge a highly confluent and key target at $2570 again. Settling above $2570 will open the way for the $2586 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2349.8 to finally be fulfilled.

That said, the $2570 target has been resilient in recent weeks and each time gold has approached this objective prices have pulled back. The potential for a second straight weekly bearish doji also warns that the move up may be exhausted. Should gold turn lower and take out the $2525 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2570.4 look for a test of key near-term support at $2500.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold pulled back after testing and holding major resistance at $2570. The pullback is likely a correction and held the $2515 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2570.4 on a closing basis today. The $2515 level is also in line with the completion point of daily bearish hanging man and shooting star patterns that formed Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Nevertheless, today’s decline confirmed bearish daily RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences and a daily KasePO PeakOut (overbought) signal. Therefore, the near-term outlook is bearish for gold and a test of $2499 and likely $2487 will take place within the next day or so. For the move up to retain a reasonable chance at extending again in the coming days $2487 must hold. Closing below $2487 will take out the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2570.4, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and confirm the daily bearish candlestick patterns.

Should gold rally and overcome $2538 look for a test of the $2557.3 corrective swing high of the wave down from $2570.4. Overcoming $2557 will invalidate this wave and negate the projections to $2499 and lower. Such a move would also call for another test and attempt to close above the $2570 threshold.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold has been trading in a range between approximately $2400 and $2430 since mid-July. Prices are trading near the top of the range and a break higher out of the range is ultimately expected.

Gold will need to close above key resistance at $2530 to confirm that a break higher is finally underway. Such a move will open the way for $2560 and $2581. Overcoming the $2514 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8 will clear the way for a test of $2530 within the next few days.

The pullback from $2519.7 looks like a correction based on today’s trading. However, the move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2519.7 and should test the $2464 equal to (1.00) target first. The move up from $2469.2 also held the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2519.7 at $2500.

Closing below $2464 now looks as though it will be a challenge but would call for a test of key near-term support at $2447. This is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2519.7, the smaller than target of the wave down from $2522.5, and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2403.8. Settling below this would put the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to test the $2401 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2522.5.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold held the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $2537.7 at $2507 before pulling back. Prior intra-day swing lows have held and the wave formation up from $2349.8 is still in a position to test $2514 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $2349.8. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bullish. Settling above $2514 will call for targets at $2529, $2548, $2564, and an eventual push to fulfill this wave’s $2586 equal to (1.00) target.

That said, the pullback from $2506.6 warns that a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2398.2 at $2465 might take place first. Taking out $2465 would call for the 62 percent retracement at $2440 and possibly a test of key near-term support at $2421. The $2421 level is the smaller than target of the wave down from $2537.7. Therefore, settling below this would shift the odds in favor of an eventual test of this wave’s $2369 equal to target.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2488.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2 today. Today’s move down also caused the daily Kase Trend indicator to become bearish and for the 10-day DMI to trigger a bearish crossover. Daily bearish KasePO and RSI divergences were also confirmed at the $2488.4 swing high and there has been good follow-through after last week’s formation of a shooting star.

The move down is now poised to reach the $2328 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2488.4. Settling below this will call for another test of the $2304 level, a close below which would call for the $2290 intermediate (1.382) target and eventually the $2263 larger than (1.618) target. The $2263 objective is also a major retracement of the moves up from $1900.1 and $2306.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching $2328. Nonetheless, should gold rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $2372 to hold. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2488.4 at $2402 to be challenged.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after the August contract overcame the $2477 swing high. However, resistance at $2490 has held and the pullback from $2488 will likely test $2421 tomorrow. A normal correction of the move up from $2304.2 should hold $2421 because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2488.4 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2. Settling below $2421 would call for an extended test of support with objectives at $2392 and $2375.

Nevertheless, the trend remains bullish and the pullback from $2488.4 will likely prove to be a correction. Overcoming the $2478.5 swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2488.4 that projects to $2421 and $2392. This will also call for another attempt to overcome key near-term resistance at $2490.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August gold settled above the crucial $2412 objective today. This was in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477. Settling above $2412 implies that the corrective move down from $2477 is complete.

The $2431 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2327.4 held, but another test of this objective is expected. Settling above $2431 will call for a test of another highly confluent and key objective at $2458. The $2458 target is in line with the target of a confirmed $2304 double bottom, the 89 percent retracement from $2477, and projections of the waves up from $2304.2, $2304.7, $2327.4, and $2356. A test of support is anticipated before sustaining a close above $2458.

Nonetheless, because $2431 held today there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2402 first. This level is expected to hold because it is in line with the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2 and today’s midpoint. Taking out $2402 would call for a test of key near-term support at $2380.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

For the past few weeks, August gold has held the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 on a closing basis. Furthermore, a double bottom around $2304 formed, and today’s move up implies that a test of the $2383 confirmation point of the pattern will be tested. Settling above $2383 will warn that a the move down from $2477 is complete and open the way for a test of $2402 and higher in the coming days. The target of the double bottom is $2462. The connection to $2462 is made through $2412 and $2435.

That said, each time the move up has been poised to extend in recent weeks the move up has failed and prices have fallen to challenge recent lows. Today’s move up also held the $2373 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2304.7. Should prices fall and take out $2348 look for a test of key near-term support at $2328. settling below $2328 will put the near-term odds in favor of $2298 and lower.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied and settled above the equal to (1.00) targets of the wave up from $2304.2 and $2310.9. The 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2310.9 held on a closing basis. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days and warns that the move down from $2477 might be complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2387. Settling above this will call for a key objective at $2405 to be challenged. The $2405 target is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and 62 percent retracement from $2477. Settling above $2405 will strongly suggest that the move down is complete and that gold is readopting a firm bullish outlook.

Nonetheless, there is still a reasonable chance for the move down to extend while $2370 holds on a closing basis. Should gold fall tomorrow and take out $2351 look for a test of key support at $2333. Settling below this will put the near-term odds back in favor of testing the $2309 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago.