Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up failed to reach $2772 and stalled at $2761.3. The subsequent pullback and close below Wednesday’s open was bearish for the outlook ahead of the weekend. The decline from $2761.3 is probably a correction that suggests prices may consolidate again because the wave up from $2565 favors an eventual test of its $2808 equal to (1.00) target. However, a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2565 at $2686 is expected first. Closing below $2686 would warn that the move up is failing and call for the 50 and possibly 62 percent retracement at $2663 and $2640 to be challenged in the coming days.

That said, the move down from $2761.3 lacks a clear wave structure to drive prices much lower. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2724 and even $2738 first. The $2738 level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2738 would imply that the pullback was a short-lived correction and call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2771.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold failed to rise and challenge the $2704 equal to (1.00) target of the compound wave up from $2629.7 after testing the $2682 smaller than (0.618) target on Wednesday. Instead, prices fell and are poised to take out the $2644.1 and $2644.5 corrective swing lows of the waves up from $2629.7 that still show potential to extend to $2704 and higher. Moreover, the wave down from $2690.5 took out its smaller than target and is positioned to fulfill its $2635 equal to target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2635 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and call for $2615 and then a test of the $2586 smaller than target of the wave down from $2826.

Should gold rise again and overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2682 at $2668 look for another test of $2682. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2704 to be challenged.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose to challenge the $2672 XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $2541.5 and the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2801.8. This is a potential stalling point and there is a reasonable chance for a test of support before the move up extends. Even so, a move down ahead of the weekend will likely be a simple correction because the wave up from $2558.9 also met its $2675 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave calls for a test of its $2705 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $2801.8. Settling above $2705 will strongly suggest that gold’s corrective pullback from $2801.8 is complete.

Should a correction take place first, look for initial support at $2650 to hold. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $2625. A normal correction of the rise from $2541.5 will hold $2625. Settling below this will warn that the move up is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of gold testing the 62 percent retracement at $2593.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold fell below the $2565 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2801.8, the $2549 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2718.3, the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and the 100-day moving average today. Gold settled below the 50 percent retracement. Otherwise, the other important support targets held on a closing basis and a daily hammer formed. Daily bullish KasePO and KaseCD momentum divergence signals and an oversold KasePO PeakOut signal also formed at the $2541.5 swing low on the $10 Kase Bar chart.

The outlook for gold remains bearish and closing below $2555 will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2527. Settling below this will open the way for the next highly confluent target at $2503.

Nevertheless, given the confluence of support in the area tested today, a correction might occur first. Today’s hammer and the confirmation of intra-day bullish momentum signals also suggest that such a move will probably take place first. A move up will likely be a correction but there is a good chance for a test of $2595 first. This is the smaller than target of the current wave up from $2541.5 and overcoming this will call for a test of at least the $2610 equal to (1.00) target. The $2610 level will likely hold. Rising above $2610 would call for key near-term resistance at $2639 to be challenged.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose after Wednesday’s significant decline. The 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2618.8 and the 50-day moving average were tested early but the move down stalled at $2650.3 before rising to challenge Wednesday’s $2715 midpoint. This level held and prices settled below the 20-day moving average again.

Today’s rise dampens the likelihood of a deeper test of support in the coming days. Even so, the daily Kase Trend indicator is bearish and weekly bearish KaseCD and MACD divergences will likely be confirmed unless gold can overcome the $2801.8 on Friday. Therefore, the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish, and taking out $2672 will call for a test of $2652. Settling below $2652 will call for a key objective at $2626 to be challenged. The $2626 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave down from $2801.8, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8, and the last target protecting the last major swing low of $2618.8. Settling below $2626 will indicate that a major test of support is finally underway.

Nevertheless, there is a good chance for a test of the 20-day moving average at $2730 early Friday. Overcoming this will call for the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2801.8 at $2744 and possibly a test of key near-term resistance at $2763. The $2763 level is the smaller than target of the wave up from $2618.8. Settling above this will imply that the corrective move down is complete and shift the odds in favor of gold rising to new highs next week.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up has been due for a solid test of support for some time now. Weekly momentum has been overbought and daily momentum moved back into overbought territory on the RSI earlier in the week. The bullish trend is intact, but today’s decline and confirmation of bearish daily MACD and RSI divergences suggest that a correction might finally be underway.

The challenge is that a similar pattern that formed on October 23 failed to lead to a meaningful correction.

Regardless, today’s move down was bearish for the near-term outlook, and a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2732 is expected. Closing below this will call for the 50 percent retracement from $2618.8 and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2349.8 at $2710 to be challenged. This is the most important target because closing below $2710 will take out the 20-day moving average and shift the Kase Trend indicator to bearish (which it has not been since August 16).

That said, prices rose a bit late this afternoon. Should gold overcome today’s $2774 midpoint look for another test of key resistance at $2802. Settling above $2802 will negate the bearish patterns and signals that formed today and put the near-term odds back in favor of gold rising to $2823 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose above the $2708.7 high and finally settled above the $2702 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8. The move up is now poised to challenge the $2720 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2618.8 tomorrow. Settling above $2720 will call for confluent wave projections at $2732, $2746, and $2760 to be challenged in the coming days.

There are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall before reaching at least $2720 and likely $2732. Even so, now that prices have risen to a new high there is potential for daily bearish divergences on the KasePO, KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic momentum oscillators. However, to confirm any of these divergence signals both price and momentum must form swing highs before momentum rises to a new high too.

Should gold turn lower without warning look for initial support at $2690. Falling below this will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2618.8 at $2677. This level is expected to hold. Key support for the outlook in the coming days is the 62 percent retracement at $2655. Settling below this will call for gold to take out the $2654.4 swing low, thus invalidating the recent wave up from $2618.8 that projects to $2720 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to challenge the 20-day moving average after settling below a confluent and important target at $2632 on Wednesday. The wave down from $2708.7 still favors a test of its $2607 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $2594 larger than (1.618) target in the coming days. Taking out $2630 tomorrow will clear the way for a test of at least $2607.

Nevertheless, today’s bullish piercing pattern warns that the corrective move down might be complete. Given this afternoon’s post-settlement rise, there is also a good chance for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2708.7 at $2653 first. A normal correction will hold $2563. Overcoming this would call for a test of key resistance and the 62 percent retracement at $2674. Settling above $2674 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2700 again.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold’s pullback from $2708.7 confirmed a daily RSI overbought signal. However, the pullback stalled before testing the $2656 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2708.7 today. This is a tight call for the near term, but odds lean in favor of testing the $2702 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8 again. Settling above this will call for $2720 and likely $2732.

Nevertheless, the uptrend is due for a more significant correction based on the RSI overbought signal. However, unless gold takes out $2656 and settles below the $2632 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2708.7 the move down from $2708.7 will likely be another short-lived correction. Closing below $2632 will put the near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support with thresholds at $2607 and $2594.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold finally broke higher out of a bullish wedge after forming a shortfall within the pattern last Friday. Gold also settled above an important area of resistance between $2565 and $2570. The $2586 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2349.8 was also tested and held on a closing basis. Even so, today’s break higher out of the wedge was bullish for the outlook in the coming days and weeks.

The move up is now poised to reach another confluent objective at $2605. This is the most confluent target on the chart and might prove to be a temporary stalling point. Closing above $2605 will clear the way for a push to $2630 and higher.

Should a throwback occur after testing and holding $2586 look for the upper trend line of the wedge at $2554 to hold. A throwback to test the breakout point of a bullish pattern is somewhat common. Taking out $2554 would warn of a false breakout. Settling below $2535 would confirm this is the case and put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2521 and $2497 in the coming days.