Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

The outlook for natural gas is firmly bearish and today’s nominal close below $1.60 clears the way for a test of $1.54 and possibly $1.50. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the primary wave down from $1.918, respectively. The sub-waves down from $1.813 also show that these two objectives are highly confluent. Therefore, a test of resistance is expected before natural gas settles below $1.50.

Based on the wave structure and bearish sentiment, natural gas should fall to at least $1.54 before another reasonable test of resistance. Nonetheless, should prices rise sooner, look for initial resistance at $1.63 and then $1.67. The latter is expected to hold. Key near-term resistance is $1.73. Settling above $1.73 would call for a larger upward correction to $1.79 and possibly higher. This would also suggest that prices may settle into a trading range before falling to challenge major support around $1.50.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil briefly fell below $20.0 but held that psychologically important target on a closing basis. Support around $20.0 was stubborn and before the rise to $29.13 just over a week ago. The outlook remains bearish and prices are poised to challenge $19.6 and lower. Yet, given the recent strength of support around $20.0 a larger test of resistance will probably take place first.

Resistance at $21.7 is expected to hold and $23.0 is key for the near-term. Settling above $23.0 would call for a larger upward correction to $24.2 and possibly higher. This would also suggest that prices may be settling into a short-term trading range before falling to challenge the next major targets below $20.0.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s outlook remains bearish and the move down is poised to reach at least $28.9 tomorrow. This is a highly confluent wave projection that is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $24.52. Therefore, an upward correction is expected before Brent closes below $28.9 and falls to $28.0 and lower.

As Brent falls toward $28.9, resistance at $30.9 is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near-term is $32.0. Settling above this would call for a larger upward correction to $32.8 and possibly $33.8. The $33.8 level is most important because a close above this would imply that near-term odds are shifting back in favor of a larger move up in the coming days and weeks.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

There is little doubt that gold’s decline from $1742.6 is corrective of the larger scale move up. So far, prices have fallen to $1670.7 but have not been able to close below $1679. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1742.6 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1576.0. Nonetheless, there is still a good chance for the correction to extend to $1660 first, especially upon a move below $1670 early tomorrow. The $1660 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1742.6 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1576.0. Support at $1660 is expected to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $1639.

The corrective move down will likely be short-lived, and once $1660 is met odds for a move back up will increase substantially. There is also a reasonable chance that the move down has already stalled and that prices will press higher before reaching $1660. Should gold overcome $1698 first look for a test of $1716. Settling above $1716 would strongly imply the corrective move down is over and would clear the way for $1479 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose in an aggressive manner again today and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2.044. This suggests prices will likely rise to challenge $2.00 and possibly higher again soon. There are no reversal patterns or setups that call for the move up to stall. However, there is a significant objective at $1.93 as the larger than (0.618) target of the only decipherable wave up from $1.521. This is also the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $2.044. Therefore, because the move up currently lacks a wave structure that can support a move above $2.00, there is a good chance natural gas will stall near $1.93. From there, a downward correction should take place before prices rise to $2.00 and higher.

The key for the move up will be holding resistance at $1.76 on a test of support. Since February, there have been two other moves up on the continuation chart to challenge resistance around or just above $2.00. Both moves, one up from $1.753 to $2.025 and then other from $1.610 to $1.998, failed on the first sign of any weakness and a test of support. Therefore, until a reasonable test of support holds it will be hard to call for a sustainable move above $2.00.

For May natural gas the key threshold is $1.76, the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $1.521. Closing below this would suggest the move up has failed again and would call for $1.67 and possibly $1.59. The latter of these is the smaller than target of the wave down from $2.044 and connects to targets well below the current $1.521 contract low.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil’s decline from $29.13 accelerated this afternoon and took out the $25.4 and $24.5 targets discussed in yesterday’s update. Based on the primary wave down from $29.13, the move is still poised to challenge the crucial $23.3 objective. This is near the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $19.27, and more importantly, the $23.34 swing low. Taking out $23.3 would invalidate the wave up from $19.27 that projects to $31.5 and higher. This would also put near-term odds in favor of falling to challenge $22.0 and lower.

Nonetheless, WTI met support around the $23.5 larger than (1.618) target of the sub-wave down from $28.24. Also, the small wave up from $23.54 met its smaller than (0.618) target, which suggests a test of the $25.0 equal to (1.00) target will probably take place first. This is near today’s midpoint and will likely hold.

Rising above $25.0 would call for an extended upward correction to $25.7, the larger than target and 38 percent retracement from $29.13. For the move down to extend to $23.3 and lower during the next day or so $25.7 must hold.

Closing above $25.7 would call for key near-term resistance at $27.1. This is the highest the wave up from $23.54 projects, is the 62 percent retracement from $29.13 and is the smaller than target of the sub-wave up from $23.34. Settling above $27.1 would shift odds back in favor of $28.5 and higher.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s move down from $35.0 still looks to be corrective but should reach at least $30.9 tomorrow. Falling below this will call for an extended correction to $29.7. This is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $28.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $36.29. For the move up to have any reasonable chance at extending during the next few days $29.7 must hold. Closing below this will clear the way for $28.9 and eventually $26.7.

The small move up from $31.74 suggests Brent could test $33.4 first, but this level is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near-term is $34.2. Overcoming $34.2 would invalidate the recent waves down from $35.0 that project to $30.9 and lower. This would also shift odds back in favor of challenging $35.0 again, above which the next major objective is $36.1.

Gold rallied today as expected and overcame the $1623 target discussed in yesterday’s update. The move up is now poised to reach $1651. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1698.0. A close above $1651 would strongly suggest the move down is over. Closing above $1685, the 89 percent retracement and highest the wave up from $1576.0 projects, would confirm the move down is over and clear the way for $1707 and higher.

The move down from $1698.0 is forming a bullish flag that will have broken higher upon a close over $1651. Nonetheless, the move up from $1576 is due for a pullback soon, so there is a reasonable chance for a test of support before $1651 is overcome and almost certainly before gold settles above $1685.

Any move down will most likely be corrective and is expected to hold $1616. Key near-term support is $1601, a close below which would call for $1582 and possibly $1567, the latter if which is in line with the flag’s lower trend line.

May natural gas fell to a new contract low of $1.580 today and settled below the $1.593 larger than (1.618) target of the first wave down from $2.044. The move down is poised to extend. Based on the waves down from $1.782 and $1.731, the prompt month should reach at least $1.56 and likely $1.50. The $1.50 objective is most important. Once met, there is a good chance for another test of resistance before prices fall to the next objectives at $1.46 and lower.

Support at $1.56 may initially hold because this is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1.782. Nonetheless, should prices rise form this level before reaching $1.50 look for resistance at $1.64 to hold. Rising above this would call for $1.67 and possibly $1.71. There is nothing on the charts that calls for a move above $1.67, so overcoming this level is doubtful during the next few days. Even so, key resistance and the barrier for a bullish near-term outlook is $1.71. Settling above $1.71 would clear the way for $1.76 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil held support around the psychologically important $20.0 level again and formed a bullish inverted hammer on the daily chart. This suggests the move down is hesitant to break $20.0 and clear the way for the next leg of the move down. Nonetheless, WTI has settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $28.49 for the past two days. Therefore, the outlook remains bearish and odds favor a continued decline toward the next major targets at $18.4 and $17.5.

Tomorrow, look for WTI to fall to at least $19.7. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $21.89 and the 89 percent retracement of the rise from $19.27. Falling below this will call for $18.4 and possibly $17.5 during the next few days. Both are crucial objectives due to their confluence as wave projections and are therefore potential stalling points.

The inverted hammer pattern suggests trading could be choppy as the move down extends during the next few days. Even so, there is initial resistance at $21.0 and then $21.7. The higher of these is expected to hold. Key resistance is $22.7, a close above which would call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues to challenge targets below $20.0.

WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar – Wave Projections and Retracements

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil is struggling to take out support around the $25.6 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $32.87. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bearish and today’s move down after holding near-term resistance around $28.1 is poised to challenge $25.6 again. Closing below $25.6 will clear the way for $24.8 and then the next major objective at $24.1. The importance of $24.1 makes it a likely stalling point, but any move up from that objective will most likely be corrective.

Initial resistance at $27.4 is expected to hold. Key resistance is $28.6. Settling above $28.6 is doubtful but would call for a larger upward correction to $29.6 and even $30.2 before the move down reaches the targets below $25.6.

WTI Crude Oil

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil leans negative. Today’s long upper shadow and close below $50.0 does not bode well for bulls. Even so, major support at $49.3, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $71.83 has held so far. Therefore, there is still a reasonable chance for a larger upward correction before falling to a new low.

The intra-day waves down from $52.2 met targets at the $49.42 swing low that connect to $48.7 and lower. In addition, the small waves down from $50.69 call for another test of $49.3. There is immediate support at $49.6 but $49.3 is key. A close below $49.3 will be long-term bearish and open the way for the next leg lower.

This is a tight call for the near-term though due to the importance of $49.3. Oversold daily and weekly momentum and intra-day Kase StatWare buy signals suggest the upward correction might extend first. Overcoming $50.6 early tomorrow will increase odds for key near-term resistance at $51.2. Closing above $51.2 would call for a larger test of resistance at $51.9 and possibly $52.2 during the next few days.

Brent Crude Oil

The outlook for Brent remains negative but a daily bullish Harami pattern, daily RSI divergence, and the wave formation up from $53.11 imply that a larger upward correction might unfold before prices fall to a new low.

Nevertheless, while $54.9 resistance holds the small wave formation down from $54.69 favors $53.7, which then connects to $53.2 and lower. Should Brent overcome $54.9, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $55.5. Settling above this would clear the way for $56.0 and higher during the next few days.

The long-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish and the recent move up from $1.804 is most likely corrective. However, Tuesday’s confirmed daily bullish RSI divergence and the wave up from $1.804 call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues.

Today, natural gas stalled just below $1.84 support and the subsequent move up most likely forms the impulse leg of the primary wave up from $1.804. The $1.88 smaller than (0.618) target of this wave has nearly been met this afternoon and the equal to (1.00) target is $1.91. Settling above $1.91 will call for key near-term resistance at $1.96, a close above which will clear the way for a larger upward correction to $2.00 and higher.

Support at $1.83 is crucial because a move below this would take out the $1.825 intra-day swing low and invalidate the wave up from $1.804 that projects to $1.91 and higher. In turn, this would shift near-term odds back in favor of $1.79 and lower.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – April 15, 2020

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil