Gold Price Forecast – January 30, 2025

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied today and finally settled above the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565 and fulfilled the $2825 target. The $2826.3 swing high was overcome but there is potential for a double top with today’s $2829.5 high. Nonetheless, it is doubtful that the double top will form because the wave formation calls for a test of a minor target at $2835 and then the next major target at $2849. The $2849 objective is highly confluent, and, most importantly, is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave up from $2372.6.

Aside from the potential for a double top, there are no other bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, after such a large single day move up a test of support might take place first. Today’s $2798 midpoint is expected to hold. Key support for the near term is today’s $2773 open and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2773 before prices rise any higher would indicate that a double top has formed and call for an extended test of support in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March natural gas tested and held the 200-day moving average around $3.07 again today and rose to test Tuesday’s $3.19 midpoint. The midpoint held on a closing basis, preventing the formation of a daily bullish piercing pattern. Today’s rise warns that a larger test of resistance might take place tomorrow but the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish.

Taking out $3.11 will call for another test of $3.07, a close below which will call for the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.522 at $3.00 to be challenged. Such a move would also clear the way for an eventual test of the $2.95 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $3.778. Settling below $2.95 would imply the move up is complete and that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Nevertheless, the intra-day wave up from $3.062 shows potential to test its $3.21 equal to (1.00) target first. Overcoming $3.21 will call for $3.26, a move above which will call for key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.34 to be challenged.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March WTI crude oil rose to test resistance today but failed to close above the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 and Monday’s midpoint. The decline from $79.39 has been due for a test of resistance that will form the corrective leg of a primary wave that can continue to drive prices lower. The rise from $72.38 is likely that move.

Given today’s rise is probably a correction, the outlook for the coming days remains bearish. Taking out $72.6 will call for a test of the 200-day moving average at $72.2 and then the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $63.65 at $71.5.

Nevertheless, there is a reasonable chance for the corrective move up from $72.38 to extend first. Overcoming $74.1 early tomorrow will call for a test of Monday’s open and the 20-day moving average at $74.5. This connects to the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $75.1. A normal correction will hold $75.1. Closing above this will warn that the move down is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $76.0 and possibly $76.7 within the next few days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and finally settled above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3, the 50-day moving average, and the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $2596.7. Tomorrow, look for a test of this wave’s $2704 larger than (1.618) target. Settling above $2704 will call for a test of a $2721 bullish decision point that is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2565. Closing above $2721 should initially be a challenge given this target’s confluence and importance but will confirm a bullish outlook for gold and open the way for $2741, $2771, and then a test of the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565.

Nevertheless, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2608.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3 were tested and held today. Prices settled just below this level around $2698, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, $2698 is a potential stalling point. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2596.7 at $2659 to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support and the 62 percent retracement at $2635.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Volatility remains high for natural gas. Prices failed to test key near-term support at $3.39 today and instead rose to challenge the $3.68 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.330. The $3.68 target held on a closing basis, but today’s close above Tuesday’s midpoint and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.738 implies that the move up will probably extend to at least $3.77 and then fulfill the $3.85 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.330 within the next few days. The $3.85 target is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.201. Settling above this will strongly suggest that the corrective move down is complete.

Trading has been erratic for the past few days so caution is warranted. Should prices fell below $3.52 look for another attempt to take out key near-term support at $3.39. This level is in line with a few projections of the intra-day waves down from $4.201 and is the equal to target of the wave down from $3.738. It also aligns with the 20- and 200-day moving averages. Closing below $3.39 will clear the way for a test of $3.28 and possibly $3.20.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has developed a bullish outlook in recent weeks. Last week’s close above the $63.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $63.73 implies that prices should eventually reach this wave’s $78.7 equal to (1.00) target.

For the near term, WTI crude oil shook off Monday’s pullback. Support at $73.0, near the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $66.01, held and prices settled just below the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $74.99. Today’s rise has put WTI crude oil in a position to challenge $74.8 again. Settling above this will take out the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $66.01. This will clear the way for a test of $75.4 and then the respective $76.0 and $76.7 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $66.01 and the first wave up from $63.73.

Nevertheless, there is still a modest chance for a deeper test of support soon given the daily KasePO and Slow Stochastic are overbought. Should the move up stall again and close below the $73.4 smaller than target of the wave down from $74.99 look for a test of the equal to (1.00) target and 200-day moving average at $72.7. Settling below $72.7 will shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.01 at $71.6 before the move up extends.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s move up failed to reach $2772 and stalled at $2761.3. The subsequent pullback and close below Wednesday’s open was bearish for the outlook ahead of the weekend. The decline from $2761.3 is probably a correction that suggests prices may consolidate again because the wave up from $2565 favors an eventual test of its $2808 equal to (1.00) target. However, a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2565 at $2686 is expected first. Closing below $2686 would warn that the move up is failing and call for the 50 and possibly 62 percent retracement at $2663 and $2640 to be challenged in the coming days.

That said, the move down from $2761.3 lacks a clear wave structure to drive prices much lower. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2724 and even $2738 first. The $2738 level is expected to hold. Overcoming $2738 would imply that the pullback was a short-lived correction and call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2771.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rallied today and settled just above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.639. The move up stalled just below the $3.42 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.977 before pulling back. The $3.42 target is a potential stalling point. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days.

A test of $3.42 is expected. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge the $3.50 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.800. This is also the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $2.977. Settling above $3.50 would confirm a bullish outlook and open the way for $3.56 and then another key objective at $3.64.

Should the pullback from $3.404 extend look for initial support at $3.30. This level will likely hold. Taking out $3.30 will call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.977 at $3.24 and possibly key near-term support at today’s $3.19 open and the 50 percent retracement.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a narrowing range. Prices were poised to break lower out of the range coming into the week, but the move down stalled again and prices have risen for the first two days of the week. There is evidence that a larger test of resistance within the range might occur, so this is a tight call. Even so, the move up from $66.98 is likely a correction and the outlook continues to lean bearish and favors an eventual break lower out of the range.

Today’s long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that the corrective move up from $66.98 might already be complete. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.98 and the $67.72 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $66.98 that suggests a larger test of resistance might occur. This will also call for a test of a confluent target at $66.8, a close below which will open the way for a break lower out of the range to test $65.6 and lower.

That said, the wave up from $66.98 met its $68.9 smaller than (0.618) target today. This wave warns that a test of its $69.6 equal to (1.00) target might take place first. To reach $69.6 WTI crude oil must overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 at $69.2. The $69.6 level, if met, is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $70.1. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $66.53 and connects to $72.0 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold failed to rise and challenge the $2704 equal to (1.00) target of the compound wave up from $2629.7 after testing the $2682 smaller than (0.618) target on Wednesday. Instead, prices fell and are poised to take out the $2644.1 and $2644.5 corrective swing lows of the waves up from $2629.7 that still show potential to extend to $2704 and higher. Moreover, the wave down from $2690.5 took out its smaller than target and is positioned to fulfill its $2635 equal to target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2635 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and call for $2615 and then a test of the $2586 smaller than target of the wave down from $2826.

Should gold rise again and overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2682 at $2668 look for another test of $2682. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2704 to be challenged.