Gold Price Forecast – June 5, 2025

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold tested and held the $3420 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $3151 today. Most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to eventually fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $3500. Therefore, the outlook for gold remains bullish. Settling above $3425, a confluence point among the projections of the waves and subwaves up from $3151, will open the way for $3454 and then $3500.

Nevertheless, the pullback from $3427.7 may test $3322 first. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3151 and a level that a normal correction should hold. Closing below $3322 would call for an extended correction to challenge the respective 50 and 62 percent retracement at $3290 and $3257. Gold must settle below $3257 to imply that the move up from $3151 is complete and that a reversal is underway.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas formed a double bottom around the $3.436 swing low late last week. Prices rallied on Monday and settled above the $3.69 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $3.436 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.840. The wave up from $3.436 favors a test of its $3.84 equal (1.00) target. This is the confirmation point of the double bottom and is also in line with projections of a few subwaves up from $3.437 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.125. The connection to $3.84 is made through confluent targets at $3.74 and $3.79. Settling above $3.84 will confirm the double bottom, opening the way for a test of the $3.94 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.303. This wave connects to $4.25 as the equal to (1.00) target, which is also the target of the double bottom.

That said, July natural gas is struggling to settle above the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $3.840 and the 20-day moving average. Bearish hanging man candlesticks that formed Tuesday and Wednesday also warn that a test of support might occur first and that the move up may fail to reach $3.84 within the next few days. Taking out $3.65 would call for a test of $3.56 and possibly key near-term support at $3.51. Settling below $3.51, which is near the smaller than target of the wave down from $3.832, will shift the odds in favor of prices falling to negate the double bottom and challenge the $3.41 smaller than target of the wave down from $4.125 instead.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil is still trading in a tight range in the upper half of a wider trading range that began on April 9. The move up during the past couple of days negated a head and shoulders pattern and has sustained a close above the 50-day moving average. The wave formation calls for a continued rise, and settling above $64.0 will call for the $64.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $54.33 to finally be fulfilled. Settling above $64.7 will confirm a break higher out of the wide range, opening the way for $65.4 and higher.

Nevertheless, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $78.48 contract high at $63.6 was tested and held on a closing basis again today. This has been a resilient level of resistance that has been challenged a few times and continues to hold on a closing basis each time it is challenged. The $63.6 level is also in line with the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $64.19. Therefore, caution is warranted. Furthermore, a small double top around $63.89 has formed. This pattern would be confirmed by a close below the $62.19 swing low. Taking out $62.9 before overcoming the double top would call for a test of $62.2. Settling below $62.2 would shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the $61.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $64.19 as prices fall to fulfill the $60.5 target of the double top.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to fulfill the $3341 intermediate (1.382) target of the waves up from $3123.3 and $3156.4 before pulling back. Today’s bearish engulfing line warns that a test of at least the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3123.3 at $3261 will occur first. However, while the 62 percent retracement at $3209 holds, the near-term outlook should continue to lean bullish.

Settling above $3341 will call for a test of a key target at $3368 that is in line with projections of the waves up from $3123.3, $3156.4, and $3207.4, as well as the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9. Settling above $3368 will strongly suggest that the corrective pullback from $3509.9 is complete and that prices will rise to $3420 and higher in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June natural gas pulled back to test the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.098 at $3.35 after forming a bullish engulfing line on Tuesday. Today’s pullback is probably a correction of the rise from $3.098 but dampens the likelihood that the bullish engulfing line will lead to a reversal. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook remains bullish, and overcoming $3.41 will call for a test of $3.46. Settling above $3.46 will imply that the pullback from $3.513 is complete, opening the way for a test of $3.56 and then a bullish decision point for the coming weeks at $3.60.

That said, should the wave down from $3.513 take out its $3.31 smaller than (0.618) target, look for a test of the $3.25 equal to (1.00) target. The $3.25 level is key support for the near-term because this is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.098 and sits just below the $3.27 midpoint of the bullish engulfing line. Settling below $3.25 will imply that the move up from $3.098 is complete, shifting the near-term odds in favor of testing $3.18 and lower.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade near the upper end of a wide range that began in early April. Prices rose to challenge the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $63.44 at $62.7 early this week and fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $60.08. This wave calls for a test of its $63.5 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $78.48 contract high. The $63.5 objective has been tested a few times and has been held on a closing basis. Even so, another test of $63.5 will not likely hold because the wave up from $54.33 favors a test of its $64.7 equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, the near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish.

Nevertheless, trading early this week has reflected uncertainty, warning that another test of support might occur before breaking higher out of the range. Should prices settle below the $60.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $63.44, look for a test of $60.2 and then the $59.3 equal to (1.00) target of this wave. The $59.3 level is expected to hold. Settling below this would call for a bearish decision point within the range around $58.0 to be tested.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold initially fell to test and hold $3325 as suspected. However, the bounce up from $3325.4 stalled at $3375.7, and prices fell to test the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $3348.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3209.4 at $3296. This important level held on a closing basis, but the move up from $3293.3 has been minimal so far. This is an ideal stalling point should the pullback from $3448.2 prove to be a short-lived correction.

That said, today’s close below the 20-day moving average and the minimal move up from $3293.3 suggest that a test of $3263 will take place ahead of the weekend. This is a bearish decision point because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3509.9. Settling below $3263 will call for an extended correction to challenge $3200, and then this wave’s $3148 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, should prices rally after holding $3296 on a closing basis and overcome $3358, look for a test of $3392. Settling above $3392 will imply that the pullback from $3448.2 is complete. Even so, at this point, gold must settle above the $3441 smaller than target of the wave up from $3209.4 to establish a firm bullish outlook that targets $3538 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas overcame the $3.648 corrective swing high of the prior primary wave down from $3.747 that had called for a test of $3.38. Prices settled just below the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.747, but the small wave up from $3.564 calls for a test of its $3.67 equal to (1.00) target. Overcoming $3.67 will clear the way for another attempt to settle above a highly confluent and key $3.72 objective. Closing above $3.72 will open the way for $3.81 and likely $3.90 in the coming days.

After rising to $3.656, prices settled into a small range that forms a coil. This pattern should break higher, but coils are not reliable continuation patterns. Taking out $3.56 will confirm a break lower out of the coil and call for a test of $3.50. The $3.50 level is expected to hold. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support and the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave down from $3.747 at $3.46.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June WTI crude oil rose to test and hold the $59.8 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $55.30. Prices settled above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $64.87 and confirmed Monday’s hammer candlestick pattern. The outlook for tomorrow is bullish, and a test of the larger than (1.618) target and 50 percent retracement at $60.2 is expected. Overcoming this would call for a near-term bullish decision point at $61.4 to be challenged. This objective is split between the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $54.67 and the 62 percent retracement from $64.87. Settling above $61.4 will likely be a challenge. However, this would imply that the move down from $64.87 is complete and that WTI crude oil will rise to $63.0 and then attempt to close above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $79.22 contract high at $64.1 again.

Nevertheless, all major prior swing highs that formed during the move down from $64.87 have held. The 10-day DMI and ADX also reflect a downtrend. Therefore, the move up from $55.30 is still a correction at this point. Prices also pulled back at the end of the day and may test the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.30 and today’s midpoint at $58.1 first. Falling below this would call for key near-term support at $57.1 to be challenged. Settling below $57.1 will shift the near-term outlook back to bearish, opening the way for $55.9 and lower.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June gold took out $3275 support and broke lower out of a range that prices had been trading in for the past six days. There is a cluster of wave projections around $3205 that could provide near-term support. However, the first and primary waves down from $3509.9 call for a test of $3137. Settling below $3183 will take out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2970.4 and clear the way for the $3137 target to be fulfilled.

The daily Kase Trend indicator flipped to bearish today and the 10-day DMI also triggered a bearish crossover. Therefore, any move up will likely be a correction as prices fall toward $3137 in the coming days. There are also weekly bearish KaseCD, RSI, and Stochastic divergences that will be confirmed this week. Last week’s shooting star might also be confirmed by a close below $3246 tomorrow. These patterns and signals suggest that the move down from $3509.9 could prove to be a significant test of support.

Nevertheless, for the near term, should prices rise ahead of the weekend, look for initial resistance at $3273 and key resistance at $3327. Settling above $3327 would call for $3364 and possibly $3395. Closing above $3395 would imply that the pullback from $3509.9 is complete.