WTI Short-Term Price Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil leans bearish. Today’s initial move up stalled at the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $43.52. The subsequent move down formed another long upper shadow on the daily candlestick chart. The body of today’s candlestick is too big to be a shooting star, but the price action is still bearish. Also, WTI took out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $41.06. These factors, weekly reversal pattern setups, recently confirmed daily bearish momentum divergences, and the wave formation down from $43.52 call for a deeper test of support.

The primary wave down from $43.52 is poised to meet its $41.42 smaller than (0.618) target. This is bearish for the near-term outlook because most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $40.5. The $40.5 level is crucial because this is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $38.72. Settling below this will call for a move below $40.0 and the 50-day moving average to challenge $39.5 and possibly $39.0, the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets, respectively. The $39.0 objective is a likely stalling point because this is also the 21 percent retracement of the move up from $21.99.

Nevertheless, the 21-day moving average around $41.3 has been strong support for the past few days. Therefore, because this is near the $41.42 smaller than target of the wave down from $43.52 a test of resistance will probably take place first. Resistance at $42.5 is expected to hold and $43.4 is key. Settling above $43.4 will call for WTI to challenge $43.9. This is a highly confluent wave projection that is also in line with the 200-day moving average. Because of this, a deeper test of support is expected before overcoming $43.9.

Brent Short-Term Price Forecast

Brent crude oil stalled at $45.79 today and the subsequent move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $46.23. Therefore, Brent is poised to reach $43.9 tomorrow. This is the equal to (1.00) target, the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $41.72, and is in line with the 21-day moving average. The $43.9 target may prove to be a stalling point, but a close below this will clear the way for $43.3 and possibly $42.7 during the next couple of days.

Odds for a test of resistance will rise once $43.9 is met. However, resistance around $45.3 is expected to hold. Overcoming $45.3 will call for a test of key resistance at $45.9. This then connects to $46.5 and $47.1.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish again after today’s move up overcame the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $42.51 and the $41.93 swing high. Most importantly, WTI challenged the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $37.32. Waves that meet their smaller than target typically extend to their equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $44.0. Therefore, odds now favor a continued rise toward $44.0, which is also the 200-day moving average. Once $44.0 is met another test of support is anticipated.

Nevertheless, the $42.0 area is a highly confluent technical objective. Therefore, WTI should test support early tomorrow. There is immediate support at $41.4, but the more important level is $40.8. This is the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $38.72 and is expected to hold.

Falling below $40.8 will call for a test of key support at $39.9. This is split between the 62 percent retracement and the smaller than target of the wave own form $42.51. For the move up to extend to $44.0 during the next few days as expected $39.9 must hold. Closing below this will clear the way for $39.0 and likely $38.3.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is poised to reach $45.0. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $39.94 and the equal to (1.00) target of the first wave up from $41.72. This is a potential stalling point because it is also in line with the $45.07 swing high. Nonetheless, based on larger waves, once $45.0 is met odds will favor an eventual move to $46.9 before another major test of support.

Immediate support for tomorrow is $44.2 and then $43.7. The latter is expected to hold. Key support is $42.9. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $41.72 and the smaller than target of the wave down from $45.07. Closing below $42.9 will shift near-term odds back in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However, WTI continues to trade in a very erratic and indecisive manner in the near-term. The move up looks exhausted and some technical patterns and signals suggest a sizable test of support should take place before the move up continues. However, as prices have risen to new highs prior swing lows have held. This is the most basic definition of an uptrend. Also, the 21-day moving average continues to hold on a closing basis.

Realistically, the near-term outlook for WTI is neutral. Even so, today’s decline shifts odds nominally in favor of a test of $40.5 and possibly $39.9 tomorrow. These are the smaller than (0.618) and equal to (1.00) targets of the compound wave down from $42.51, respectively. Closing below $40.5 will also take out the 21-day moving average and a close below $39.9 will take out the last swing low of $39.97. This will also increase odds for a deeper correction to $39.2 and possibly $38.6 during the next few days.

Conversely, each time WTI has looked as though it will break lower prices have turned higher and risen to a modest new high shortly thereafter. Therefore, caution is warranted. Resistance at $41.9 is expected to hold. A move above this would invalidate the wave down from $42.51 that projects to $40.5 and lower. This would also call for WTI to rise to a new high of at least $42.8 before another major test of support takes place.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent’s near-term outlook leans neutral-to-negative and the move down is poised to challenge at least $43.0. Closing below this will call for $42.1 and possibly lower.

Nevertheless, the 21-day moving average held again today and the move down has been extremely choppy. Therefore, the decline is most likely corrective. Should Brent overcome the $44.34 intra-day swing high look for the move up to extend to $45.3 before another significant test of support takes place.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

Today’s move up was bullish for the outlook of WTI crude oil. The August contract settled above $41.2 and September closed above $41.5. This finally confirmed a break higher out of a weeks-long narrowing trading range and clears the way for the next leg of the move up toward at least $42.6, likely $43.5, and possibly $44.3 during the next few days.

The $42.6 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $37.32. Today’s move up stalled just below $42.6, so settling above this will clear the way for $43.5. This is a moderately confluent wave projection and, most importantly, is in line with the 200-day moving average on the continuation chart. Therefore, $43.5 may be a stalling point.

Nonetheless, based on September’s wave formation, once September WTI settles above $42.6 there is a good chance for $44.3. This is the intermediate (1.382) target and is also in line with September’s 200-day moving average.

Either way, there is a lot of important resistance between $43.5 and $44.3. Therefore, another reasonably significant test of support is expected before WTI settles above $44.3.

There is also a good chance for a test of $40.8 early tomorrow before the move up continues. This is because today’s long upper shadow suggests traders remain hesitant to keep risk on overnight. This move down from $42.51 was likely profit-taking but formed a wave that projects to $40.8 as the larger than (1.618) target. This is also today’s open. Support at $40.8 must hold for the move up to extend above $42.6 during the next few days. Falling below $40.8 will call for key near-term support at $39.9. Settling below $39.9 would shift near-term odds in favor of $39.3 and possibly $38.2.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent finally settled above $43.9 and broke higher out of its recent trading range. The move up is poised to reach $45.0, a close above which would call for $45.7 and likely $46.4. The $46.4 objective is the most confluent wave projection. Therefore, another small test of support is expected once $46.4 is met.

The decline at the end of the day formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick. This was likely profit-taking but suggests traders remain nervous about the prospects for a larger move up in the coming days. There is also a small wave down from $44.89 that projects to $43.2. This is in line with today’s open and is expected to hold. Key support is $42.3, a close below which would call for $41.7 and likely $40.7.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.