WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI remains bearish. Although WTI bounced today and settled above yesterday’s midpoint, the move up failed to close above yesterday’s open and held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9 at $39.7 on a closing basis. Also, the wave formation up from $38.28 stalled just below its larger than (1.618) target and this afternoon’s post-settlement decline has challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $38.28. Finally, yesterday’s close below $38.8, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $42.02, has put odds in favor of testing the $36.8 equal to (1.00) target. This is in line with the double bottom that formed between the $37.11 and $36.93 swing lows. Therefore, closing below $36.8 will take out the double bottom and clear the way for a much more significant test of support.

That said, each time WTI has looked most bearish (or bullish) since early September the move has stalled and WTI has oscillated within the range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0. Also, given today’s close above yesterday’s midpoint, there is an outside chance for a larger test of resistance before WTI falls to challenge $36.8. Closing above $39.7 will call for key resistance at $40.5. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $41.9. Settling above $40.9 will shift near-term odds back in favor of rising to $41.4 and eventually $42.0 where the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom would be tested.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for Brent is bearish after today’s move up held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $41.5. The post-settlement decline implies that today’s move up is corrective of the recent decline. Tomorrow, look for a test of $40.2, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $44.3. Settling below this will clear the way for $39.4 and then $38.6.

Resistance at $41.5 should continue to hold. Closing above this will call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $43.57 at $42.3. Settling above $42.3 is doubtful but would shift odds in favor of $43.2 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. For the past few weeks, December WTI has been stuck in a wide range between nominally $37.0 and $42.0 and formed a double bottom around $37.0. Last week, prices oscillated within a smaller range between approximately $39.4 and $41.7. This was in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $44.33 and was just below the $42.02 confirmation point of the double bottom.

Today, December WTI broke higher out of this small recent range but stalled at $41.90. The break higher was bullish for the outlook though, and the move up is poised to reach $42.3 during the next couple of days. This is the most confluent objective on the chart. Setting above $42.3 will establish a bullish uptrend because this will confirm the double bottom, which targets $47.0, and also invalidate the primary wave down from $44.33 that had taken out its $37.6 smaller than (0.618) target a few weeks ago.

With that said, the late throwback from $41.90 back into the recent range between $39.4 and $41.7 reflects uncertainty and suggests a test of $40.5 might take place first. Falling below $40.5 will take out a few of the smaller waves that call for $42.3 and higher. This will also call for a test of $40.0. Support at $40.0 is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.93 and is expected to hold. Closing below $40.0 will call for key near-term support at $39.4, a close below which will shift odds in favor of testing $38.8 and possibly lower.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent rose a bit higher today but its move up has been more hesitant than WTI’s. Nevertheless, the decline from $43.57 forms a corrective range that should break higher soon. Also, $43.3 was met, so the wave formations now call for a test of $43.8. This then connects to $44.4 and higher.

The $43.3 target was quite important for the near-term outlook, so the throwback from this objective late this afternoon is not surprising. Support at $42.2 is expected to hold and $41.4 is key for the near-term. Settling below $41.4 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in external factors and call for $40.5 and possibly lower in the coming days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The quantitative outlook for WTI crude oil has become muddled during the past couple of days. Even so, longer-term odds will continue to lean bearish while the $41.72 swing high holds. A deeper test of support is expected tomorrow but given the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish technical factors, there is a good chance that WTI will settle into a trading range for a few days while it sorts through external factors.

WTI crude oil’s post-settlement decline has formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick and drove prices back below the 100-day moving average. Although the daily candlestick won’t reflect this due to the $40.67 settlement, the decline is negative for tomorrow’s forecast and calls for a deeper test of support.

Additionally, this afternoon’s decline also confirmed an intra-day double top between the $40.83 and $40.86 swing highs that was confirmed by the move below the $40.15 swing low. The target for this small pattern is $39.5, but the more important confluence point is $39.2. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $36.63 and connects to $38.3, the 62 percent retracement. For the move up to have a reasonable chance at continuing during the next few days $38.3 must hold. Closing below $38.3 will call for $37.7 and then $37.0, the latter of which is the barrier to a much more bearish outlook.

With that said, the challenge is that today’s move up overcame the $40.80 swing high and invalidated all of the subwaves down from $41.72 that called for a bigger decline. More importantly, WTI settled above the $39.8 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $36.58. This implies that WTI might rise to challenge the $41.8 equal to (1.00) target. This would take out the $41.72 swing high and invalidate the larger wave down from $44.05 that settled below its $37.10 smaller than target on Friday. This wave calls for a decline into the mid-to-low $30s. Therefore, this is the cause of what will likely be become a tug-of-war between bulls and bears during the next few days.

Should WTI overcome $40.5 early tomorrow look for a test of $41.2 and possibly $41.8. As stated, rising to $41.8 would invalidate the primary wave down from $44.05 and shift longer-term odds in favor of a continued rise.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent crude oil stalled at the 100-day moving average and formed a double top around $43.84. This pattern was confirmed by this afternoon’s decline below $42.12 and calls for a test of $41.3 tomorrow. This is near the double top’s target and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $38.79. Settling below $41.3 will call for $40.3 and possibly $39.4. The $39.4 objective is most important but will likely hold for now because it looks as though Brent will settle into a trading range for a few days before committing to a longer-term directional move.

Nevertheless, should Brent overcome $43.0, look for a test of $43.9 and then $44.5. Rising to $44.5 would take out the $44.3 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $46.99 that took out its $39.91 smaller than target on Friday. Overcoming $44.3 would strongly imply that the move down is over and that a longer-term bullish recovery is underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil’s move up from $38.87 stalled short of the $41.1 objective and finally proved to be corrective of the decline from $41.72. WTI took out the $39.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $41.72 and stalled marginally below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58. The move down might become a grind during the next few days, but odds favor a test of the $38.0 equal to (1.00) target. Closing below this would then call for the key objective at $37.1. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the bigger wave down from $44.05. Settling below $37.1 would clear the way for much lower prices and a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, because the move down stalled at the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $36.58 and $39.0 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a larger test of resistance early tomorrow. Initial resistance at $39.7 is expected to hold and key resistance is $40.5. Settling above $40.5 would shift near-term odds back in favor of making a push toward $41.6. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $36.58 and the barrier for renewed a bullish outlook.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

Brent settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $39.88, confirmed the $43.07/$43.03 pseudo double top, and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $44.30. Brent is now poised to extend to $40.3, a close below which will call for a test of key support and the barrier to a much more bearish outlook in the coming weeks at $39.9.

With that said, the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $43.07 held today. Therefore, there is a modest chance for a test of $42.2 before taking out $40.9. Key near-term resistance is $43.0. Closing above this will call for a test of $43.6, which then connects to $45.3 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.